1 Simulation Learning Objectives Explain what is meant by the term simulation
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1
Simulation
Learning
Objectives
Explain what is meant by the term simulation
List some of the reasons for simulation’s popularity as a tool for decision making
Explain how and why random numbers are used are used in simulation
Outline the advantages and limitations of simulation
Describe the alternatives that a manager would reject before choosing simulation
as a decision making tool
Solve typical problems that require simulation
Simulation
Simulation
: a descriptive technique that enables a decision maker to evaluate the behavior of a model under various conditions.
Simulation models complex situations
Models are simple to use and understand
Models can play “what if” experiments
Extensive
software packages available
Simulation Process
Identify the problem
Develop the simulation model
Test the model
Develop the experiments
Run the simulation
and evaluate results
Repeat 4 and 5 until results are satisfactory
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo method
: Probabilistic simulation technique used when a process has a random component
Identify
a probability distribution
Setup intervals of random numbers to match probability distribution
Obtain the random numbers
Interpret the results
Example S-1
Simulating Distributions
Poisson
Mean
of distribution is required
Normal
Need to know the mean and standard deviation
Uniform Distribution
Negative Exponential Distribution
Computer Simulation
Simulation
languages
SIMSCRIPT II.5
GPSS/H
GPSS/PC
RESQ
Advantages of Simulation
Solves problems that are difficult or impossible to solve mathematically
Allows experimentation without risk to actual system
Compresses time to show long-term effects
Serves as training
tool for decision makers
Limitations of Simulation
Does not produce optimum solution
Model development may be difficult
Computer run time may be substantial
Monte Carlo simulation only
applicable to random systems
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