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Azərbaycan Mərkəzi Bankı
Mərkəzi Bank və İqtisadiyyat – N2, 2014
16
Cədvəl 1. İdxal funksiyası dəyişənlərinin panel vahid kök testi
(1)-(5) sütunlarda olan testlərin sıfır fərziyyəsi (H0=unit root) vahid kökün olması, Hadri testinin sıfır fərziyyəsi
isə(H0=stationarity) dəyişənlərin stasionarlığıdır. Mötərizədə verilıən statistic rəqəmlərin p-qiymətləri verilmişdir.
(1),(3),(4) və (5) sütunlardakı testlər trendsiz, (2) və (6) sütunlarda isə trendlədir. *-simvolu 10%, **-5%, ***-isə 1%
əminlik intervalında sıfır fərziyyənin rədd edilməsini ifadə edir.
Cədvəl 2. İxrac funksiyası dəyişənlərinin panel vahid kök testi
(1)-(5) sütunlarda olan testlərin sıfır fərziyyəsi (H0=unit root) vahid kökün olması, Hadri testinin sıfır fərziyyəsi
isə(H0=stationarity) dəyişənlərin stasionarlığıdır. Mötərizədə verilıən statistic rəqəmlərin p-qiymətləri verilmişdir.
(1),(3),(4) və (5) sütunlardakı testlər trendsiz, (2) və (6) sütunlarda isə trendlədir. *-simvolu 10%, **-5%, ***-isə 1%
əminlik intervalında sıfır fərziyyənin rədd edilməsini ifadə edir.
Dəyişənlər
Loqarikmik
(1)
Levin,
Lin&Chu
(2)
Breitung-t
stat
(3)
ADF-Fisher
(4)
PP-Fisher
(5)
Im,
Pesaran&Shin
(6)
Hadri
Real idxal
-7.96***
(0.00)
-0.11
(0.45)
77.7**
(0.04)
123.5***
(0.00)
-1.25
(0.10)
6.31***
(0.00)
Real idxal istehlak
-0.63
(0.26)
1.37
(0.91)
43.1
(0.92)
87.8***
(0.00)
1.95
(0.97)
10.67***
(0.00)
Real idxal aralıq
-7.69***
(0.00)
-0.57
(0.28)
89.8***
(0.00)
135.4***
(0.00)
-2.03**
(0.03)
8.31***
(0.00)
Real idxal kapital
-11.54***
(0.00)
0.94
(0.82)
123.09***
(0.00)
81.3***
(0.01)
-1.83**
(0.03)
11.82**
(0.00)
Qeyri-neft ÜDM
-8.32***
(0.00)
-0.30
(0.37)
23.43
(1.00)
39.10
(0.97)
2.03
(0.97)
12.66***
(0.00)
Neft
gəlirlərinin
transferi
18.22
(1.00)
-11.2***
(0.00)
7.19
(1.00)
45.14
(0.89)
2.82
(0.99)
6.19***
(0.00)
Dəyişənlər
Loqarikmik
(1)
Levin,
Lin&Chu
(2)
Breitung-t
stat
(3)
ADF-Fisher
(4)
PP-Fisher
(5)
Im,
Pesaran&Shin
(6)
Hadri
Real ixrac
-4.22***
(0.00)
-0.08
(0.46)
98.65**
(0.02)
166.3***
(0.00)
-2.23***
(0.01)
8.98***
(0.00)
Real ixrac istehlak
-1.82**
(0.03)
2.74
(0.99)
58.63
(0.66)
134.7***
(0.00)
1.02
(0.84)
9.72***
(0.00)
Real ixrac aralıq
-5.45***
(0.00)
0.29
(0.61)
81.7*
(0.09)
192.4***
(0.00)
-1.29*
(0.09)
11.13***
(0.00)
Real ixrac kapital
-2.55***
(0.00)
2.08
(0.98)
53.9
(0.14)
101.9***
(0.00)
0.18
(0.57)
14.44***
(0.00)
Xarici ÜDM
-5.02***
(0.00)
2.32
(0.98)
65.49
(0.74)
106.3***
(0.00)
1.07
(0.85)
11.32***
(0.00)
Real
ikitərəfli
məzənnə
-5.50***
(0.00)
-0.97
(0.16)
68.32***
(0.00)
127.5***
(0.00)
-2.95***
(0.00)
8.01***
(0.00)
Real
effektiv
məzənnə
-10.63***
(0.00)
-4.40***
(0.00)
170.6***
(0.00)
279.9***
(0.00)
-6.51***
(0.00)
8.58***
(0.00)