3
Immigration Policy of the Federal Government and FDI Inflows
Both static and dynamic neoclassical models in macroeconomics suggest that more liberal
international migration can allocate an efficient global workforce by increasing international
integration of markets driven by migrant networks (Combes et al., 2005; Klein and Ventura,
2007; Rauch and Trindade, 2002). For example, ethnic networks are positively associated with
international trade, not only because an increase in migrant population increases the demand for
its home-country products but also because the stock of migrants reduce information costs and
contracting costs (i.e., trade costs) by using their indigenous knowledge and information related
to their home countries (Combes et al., 2005; Gould, 1994). The positive effects of the
socioeconomic enrichment of immigration networks, however, is not limited to bilateral trade.
Because trade itself refers exclusively to transactions across countries, we can expect that FDI is
influenced by the networked ethnic activity (Bernard and Moxnes, 2018).
Larger ethnic networks also create sources of consumption. They have a substantial impact
on FDI inflows not only by creating cultural diversity and socioeconomic enrichment in the host
countries but also by increasing social capital and innovation through interpersonal ties within
each given ethnic group (Gheasi and Nijkamp, 2017). A growing body of research on the
effectiveness of immigration has demonstrated that growth in immigrant populations leads to
growth in FDI largely because of the positive impact of ethnic networks connected to the
immigrants’ native country (e.g., Bernard and Moxnes, 2018; Foad, 2012). These ethnic
networks can effectively lower political risk and reduce asymmetric information because
“immigrants serve as a bridge over which capital may more easily flow between their native and
current countries” (Foad, 2012, p. 238). Gould (1994, p. 302) also suggests that “immigrant
links to the home country include knowledge of home-country markets, language, preferences,
and business contacts.” Immigration networks are positively associated with FDI inflows, not
only because an increase in migrant population increases the demand for home-country products
but because migrants reduce information gaps and contracting costs by providing indigenous
knowledge and information related to their home countries (Combes et al., 2005; Javorcik et al.,
2011). Earlier work suggests that more expansive immigration policies would increase FDI due
to the increased expected return to foreign firms obtained by accessing immigrants’ experience,
information, and social capital.
While many of the skilled immigrants to the U.S. in recent years have come from China and
India, the major source countries for investment of assets and plants in the U.S. are from
Western Europe and Australia (Foad, 2012; Shin, 2018), accounting for more than 70% of all
foreign-owned the real annual book value of gross property, plant, and equipment. Regardless of
where a multinational corporation is domiciled, however, it is important to note it is a rational
actor that is pursuing profit maximization (Shin, 2018). Thus, firms from Western Europe and
Australia are not likely to make their investment decisions based on immigrants’ countries of
origin. Indeed, rational firms can be expected to be interested in all immigrants who form part of
a competitive workforce in U.S. markets.
Despite the relative breadth of data available to assess immigration in relation to foreign
firms’ investment decisions, little attention to the link between a government’s immigration
policy and its FDI inflows. That is, while many studies suggest that the number of migrants is
correlated with FDI increases, they do not examine whether a country’s immigration policy
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 14 (2020–15)
www.economics-ejournal.org
5
relates the foreign firms’ investment decisions. The volume and composition of immigration
flows are significantly influenced by restrictions in immigration policy (Mayda, 2010; Ortega
and Peri, 2009). Rational foreign firms take policy changes into account that would affect long-
term migration volumes, rather than making investment decisions based on short-term changes
in numbers of immigrants. Indeed, rational firms prefer deliberate governments because they
provide a more predictable and steadier policy environment (Jensen, 2003; Li, 2009). It is also
important to note that “direct investment generally requires a long-term focus and interactions
with a diverse group of economic agents from suppliers, workers and consumers to government
officials” (Javorcik et al., 2011, p. 231). Thus, it is important to see the impact of changing
immigration policies on FDI against a background of long-term expectations. Furthermore,
despite the important probable link between labor costs and FDI and between immigration and
FDI, the effects of immigration policy on FDI flows mediated by the stock of labor in the host
country have not been examined. In addition, the cross-sectional impacts of immigration on FDI
inflows have been studied, but there has been little work on its impacts on the U.S., the world’s
largest immigrant destination and host of the world’s largest amount of FDI. This research
examines whether more expansive immigration policies can motivate foreign firms to invest in
the U.S.
For these reasons, I posit the following testable hypothesis for a direct relationship between
immigration policy and FDI.
Hypothesis 1: More liberal immigration policies attract more FDI.
Infosys Technologies Ltd., a multinational information technology service company operating
in the U.S. and headquartered in Bangalore, India, employs more than 8,500 foreign workers
who are in the U.S. on H-1B visas. The H-1B is a non-immigrant visa, provided for under the
Immigration and Nationality Act, section 101(a)(15)(H), which is intended for foreign guest
workers working in specialty occupations.
Although Infosys Technologies Ltd. report that they
need skilled foreign labor to remain competitive and fill positions for which there are not
enough American workers, such as programmers, engineers, and chip designers, their intention
was to cheaply increase their skilled personnel by hiring foreign aliens (Preston and Bajaj,
2011).
The example shows the trade-off between expansive immigration law and foreign firms’
utility in terms of labor cost. Major macro-determinants of firms’ investment decisions include
market size, labor cost, and government policy (Ali and Guo, 2005).
Although the U.S. is the
world’s largest market for foreign firms, it has been less able to attract foreign firms due its lack
of highly skilled labor and high costs. As Lucas (1990) points out, economic theory predicts that
labor and capital flow in positive directions. Li and Resnick (2003) argue that large increases in
labor costs suppress expected returns, leading FDI investors to shy away from the potential
investment in the U.S. Figure 1 shows that the overall trend over time between labor costs and
FDI inflows have moved in a negative direction. The U.S. experienced increased FDI inflows
and decreased labor costs during the mid-1990s and early 2000s.
Dostları ilə paylaş: |