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Finance: theory and practice Vol. 26, No. 2’2022 financetp. Fa. Ru1577-3225-1-PBFINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE
Vol. 26, No. 2’2022
FINANCETP.FA.RU
82
in the GDP of the Russian Federation in the
time period 2022–2030 taking into account
actually available statistical data for 2010–
2021. A variety of factors influence the
dynamics of the selected macroeconomic
indicator [18]. Therefore, it is necessary to
consider those factor variables that reveal
the essence of ongoing innovation projects
in industrial sectors. To build a correlation-
regression model for predicting changes
in the GDP of the Russian Federation, they
can be divided into three groups: scenario,
base and control. Scenario factors include
only one variable — the level of innovation
activity of companies operating in industrial
sectors. As the main factors, the author
of the article selected such parameters
as the costs of innovation infrastructure
facilities for technological innovations
in the industry, the volume of foreign
financing of innovation projects in the
industry, the average number of employees
of companies functioning in industrial
sectors and implementing technological
innovation projects, the number of industrial
companies that have invested their own
funds in R&D programs. Control factors
are additional variables that can be used to
account for the effectiveness of the model of
financial incentives for innovation projects
in the industry. Among them, the following
indicators can be distinguished: the index of
industrial production, the share of innovative
products in the total volume of shipped
products in industrial production, and the
size of developed technologies in industrial
production (
Table 3
).
I n a cco r d a n ce w i t h t h e t h e o r y o f
probability and mathematical statistics,
to evaluate the regression model, it is
necessary to construct an equation that
is a mathematical formula applied to
independent variables in order to model the
GDP of the Russian Federation with high
accuracy. The general form of the regression
equation is represented by formula (1):
Table 2
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