Financial
Futures of the
Islamic State of Iraq and
the Levant
Findings from a RAND Corporation Workshop
Colin P. Clarke, Kimberly Jackson, Patrick B. Johnston, Eric Robinson,
Howard J. Shatz
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iii
Preface
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been described as the wealthiest terrorist
group in history. From seizing control of banks to extortion to trafficking oil and oil-related
products, ISIL has developed diversified revenue streams. This report describes the likely evo-
lution of ISIL finances under three specific scenarios that provide a range of conditions. These
include (1) a continuation of the current campaign, (2) a negotiated settlement in Syria and
political accommodation in Iraq, and (3) total territory loss through combat without a negoti-
ated settlement or political accommodation. Conclusions stem from a workshop held at the
RAND Corporation’s Arlington office in June 2016. Attendees included RAND and non-
RAND employees, all of whom were included for their expertise in an area related to ISIL or
Iraq.
This project was sponsored by an interagency group within the U.S. government and
conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research
Institute,
a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the
Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine
Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on the Intelligence Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/
centers/intel or contact the center’s director (contact information is provided on the web page).
v
Contents
Preface
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
iii
Figure
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
vii
Summary
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ix
Acknowledgments
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xiii
Abbreviations
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xv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
Scenario One: Status Quo
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2
Scenario Two: Negotiated Settlement
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3
Scenario Three: Total Territory Loss Through Combat
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4
Structure of the Workshop
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4
CHAPTER TWO
ISIL’s Finances
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7
How ISIL Makes Its Money
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8
How Much Money Does ISIL Make?
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9
How ISIL Spends Its Money
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10
Will ISIL Be Able to Weather the Financial Storm?
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13
CHAPTER THREE
Major Themes in ISIL’s Financial Futures
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15
Areas of Agreement Across Scenarios
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15
Areas of Disagreement
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17
CHAPTER FOUR
Implications for the Counter-ISIL Effort
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19
APPENDIXES
A. Detailed Description of Points Raised in Each Scenario
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
B. Current State of ISIL’s Finances
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27
Bibliography
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35