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better understand coastal processes. Carmack and MacDonald (2008) provide an excellent example of
how the observations and wisdom of aboriginal elders was the stimulus that led to a successful research
project on the Mackenzie Delta. Henri, Gilchrist, and Peacock (2010) provide an overview of the ways that
TEK and Western science have interacted and complemented one another with respect to managing
wildlife in the Hudson Bay region and discusses ways in which these two perspectives could converge in
addressing the potential impacts of climate change on marine mammals and birds.
Evidence from a variety of sources paints a compelling picture of a rapidly changing marine ecosystem.
Satellite observations provide a unique capacity to document the earlier break-up and later freeze-up of
the seasonal ice cover and changes in sea-surface temperatures, while aboriginal hunters and trappers
have a first-hand understanding of changes in the near-shore ice environment. Both categories of
information can generate testable hypotheses for explaining the situations and changes that are
observed.
Unfortunately, in most instances, there is very limited detailed understanding of how this system actually
works. The vastness of the system and its harsh environment make it extremely difficult to carry out
monitoring and research initiatives at spatial and temporal scales that can be readily extrapolated to the
entire Hudson Bay Complex. Modelling initiatives continue to fill this need, but without corroborating
monitoring and research the outputs of models, however sophisticated they may be, will have limited
credibility.
3 Ominous Signals From the Arctic Ocean
The waters of Pacific and Atlantic origin meet in the Arctic Ocean, as they do in the Hudson Bay. This
interaction has long been recognized as an important component of the global ocean circulation and
climate system. The speed of climate warming in the Arctic and the decline of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean
have added a new level of urgency and alarm. The title of one recent publication (McLaughlin et al., 2011)
is: “The rapid response of the Canada Basin to climate forcing: From bellwether to alarm bells.” This title
is fully consistent with the findings reported in many of the publications now appearing in the scientific
literature. While the state of the Arctic Ocean clearly has implications for the global climate, it is entirely
plausible that the rapid and accelerating loss of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean could be the harbinger of
things to come in the Hudson Bay Complex.
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Since 1979, enabled scientists have been able to track the precipitous decline in the extent and volume of
ice cover on the Arctic Ocean through satellite monitoring. This decline in the ice cover is both an indicator
and a driver of climate change in the Arctic, the subarctic and indeed the rest of the planet. The
documented declines in sea ice in the Arctic along with increasingly sophisticated climate modelling are
fueling an unprecedented interest in the potential for the Arctic Ocean to become a major international
route for commercial shipping and Arctic tourism. The potential reserves of oil and gas in the region are
also driving activity in the Arctic and underlay much of the current interest in Arctic sovereignty.
The extent of the ice cover (15 per cent or more of the sea surface) of the Arctic Ocean reached its
minimum on September 9, 2011. That minimum and the average ice cover for the month (4.6 million km²)
are the second lowest in the 1979–2011 period (United States National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2011a).
Figure 1 illustrates the decline in the extent of the average September ice cover. Atmospheric conditions
were exceptionally conducive to rapid ice melt in 2007, the record year for the lowest September average
ice cover (4.3 million km²). The last 5 years (2007–2011) are the five lowest September averages in the
satellite record. The current trend in September average ice extents relative to the 1979–2000 average
(7.04 million km²) is 12 per cent per decade. This trend is ominous, apparently relentless and, in the
opinion of many experts, unstoppable in the foreseeable future.
While the decline in sea ice has been apparent for decades, the 2007 melt season was exceptional with
atmospheric conditions leading to an unprecedented and unexpected loss of sea ice. Sonar readings from
under-ice submarine voyages as well as from satellite observations indicate that the ice pack is now only
about half as thick as it was in the 1980s. Many scientists (McCullough et al., 2011) now expect that the
Arctic Ocean will be seasonally ice free in as little as one or two decades and that the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change was much too cautious when it predicted that the ice-free Arctic Ocean would
not likely occur until 2030–2050 in its 2007 report.
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Figure 1. Declining extent of September sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.
The United States National Snow and Ice Data Center publishes an online monthly news letter, Arctic Sea
Ice News & Analysis, on changing ice conditions in the Arctic. Figures 1 and 2 are from the October and
December issues respectively. Figure 2 illustrates how the Arctic ice cover changed during 2011 compared
to the average ice cover for the period from 1979–2000, as well for the years 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.
This figure is for December 1, 2011 and, as noted, 2011 has tracked 2007 (the ice minimum year) very
closely.