186
N. F. Elansky
The seasonal dependence, time intermittency, and nonlinearity of
both ozone
and temperature responses to 27-day solar activity have been revealed using the
HAMMONIA chemistry climate model [
Gruzdev et al., 2014]. The response
sensitivity in the extratropical latitudes may be higher in winter than in summer,
which implies that the role of atmospheric circulation may be important. This
assumption is supported by results given in [
Schmidt et al., 2013], where 27-day
variations in geopotential and its zonal harmonics were revealed.
The SOCOL three-dimensional chemistry climate model was used for estimat‑
ing variations in ozone and atmospheric dynamics in the 21st century [
Zubov et
al., 2011; Ozolin et al., 2011]. The model yielded a statistically significant strato‑
spheric cooling of 4–5 K for 2000–2050 and 3–5 K for 2050–2100. The temper‑
ature of the lower atmosphere increases by 2–3 K by 2100. Tropospheric warming
and intensified wave activity lead to a decrease in zonal circulation and an increase
in meridional residual circulation. Due to such dynamic changes and decreased
concentrations of ozone‑depleting gases, the rate of increase in the content of
ozone outside the tropics increases. Here, by 2050, the TOC is retrieved almost
to its level of 1989. In the tropics, the ozone layer is retrieved significantly slow‑
er and reaches its level of 1980 only by 2100. Both individual and combined ef‑
fects of all factors that affect the ozone layer were studied in [
Zubov et al., 2013a].
In the first half of the 21st century, the TOC in the middle and high latitudes of
both hemispheres is retrieved mainly due to a decrease in the concentrations of
ozone-depleting compounds. In the second half of this century, in both tropical
and extratropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, ocean-temperature varia‑
tions and sea ice play the most important role. Greenhouse gases affect the ozone
layer mainly in the upper and lower stratospheres of the high latitudes of the
Southern Hemisphere. The lower tropical stratosphere in the Northern Hemi‑
sphere depends, to a considerable degree, on the temperature of the ocean surface.
A strategy for slowing climate change, which is alternative to that for reduc‑
ing anthropogenic CO
2
emissions, was proposed in [
Karol et al., 2013]. Reduced
emissions of methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and aerosols (first and foremost, car‑
bon-black aerosols) and decreased ozone generation in the atmospheric bound‑
ary layer may also noticeably affect the environment and climate. The sources
and destruction mechanisms of these substances in
the atmosphere are discussed,
their emissions and the degree of their influence on climate are estimated, and
recommendations as to how to decrease such emissions are given. An important
aspect of the problem of changes in climate and atmospheric ozone is their in‑
fluence on the regime of UV radiation and the production of vitamin D in the
human body. On the basis of both SOCOL and FASTRT(uvspec) models, pro‑
cesses affecting variations in the flux of UV radiation incident on the land surface
are studied in [
Zubov et al., 2013b]. Possible UV-radiation variations are esti‑
mated for the 21st century.
187
Ozone
3. Conclusions
In 2011–2014, a team of Russian researchers continued
to study atmospheric
ozone. Noticeable achievements are associated with studying processes that deter‑
mine the spatiotemporal variability of ozone and its precursors (CO and NO
x
) in
the atmosphere over northern Eurasia. These studies were, to a considerable extent,
initiated by the start of work on the implementation of the Pan-Eurasian Experi‑
ment (PEEX) [Lappalainen et al., 2014]. A certain achievement in the area of ob‑
servations of ozone and other atmospheric components was the development of a
YaK-42D aircraft laboratory equipped with current instruments (CAO). This air‑
craft laboratory successfully stood the test in 2014. At the same time, for lack of
financing, the Danki and Shepelevo background stations stopped operating and, in
2010, the TROICA international experiments were completed. The unique mobile
railroad laboratory was dismantled, and two specialized railway cars were moth‑
balled. In the last two years, there has been some progress towards the development
of a system for the space monitoring of ozone and other
important components of
the atmosphere. In 2014, the first experiments were carried out to validate satellite
atmospheric-sounding data. Great expectations are related to an increase in the
state support of young professionals in the area of atmospheric investigations.
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