Intelligence - Led Policing:
How the Use Of Crime Intelligence Analysis Translates in to the Decision-Making
INTELLIGENCE - LED POLICING:
HOW THE USE OF CRIME INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
TRANSLATES IN TO THE DECISION-MAKING
Suç İstihbaratı Analizinin Karar Vermeye Etkisi
Zakir Gül *
Ahmet Kule **
This study does a partial test of a new policing model, the 3-i
model of intelligence-led policing (ILP). It is a business model
and a managerial philosophy where data analysis is critical to the
decision-making process when dealing with crime and criminals
proactively and reactively. To explore the research questions, a
comprehensive data set was constructed using four nationwide data
sets in the U.S.A. The findings indicate that intelligence analysis,
crime analysis, and statistical analysis functions are consistently
associated with all of the organizational decision-making variables.
In addition, having a crime analysis unit in a law enforcement agency
matters in terms of decision-making.
Keywords: Intelligence-Led Policing (ILP), 3-i Model; Intelligence
Analysis, Crime Analysis, Statistical Analysis.
Bu çalışma yeni bir polislik modeli olan İstihbarat-Destekli Polisliğin
3-i versiyonunu kısmi olarak test etmektedir. Bu yeni polislik, suç
ve suçlularla proaktif ve reaktif olarak mücadelede kullanılan, karar
verme sürecinde veri analizinin önemli olduğu, bir iş modeli ve
yönetim felsefesidir. Araştırma soruları, ABD’de toplanan dört farklı
ulusal veri setinin bir araya getirilmesiyle oluşturulan, kapsamlı bir
veri bankasından araştırılarak yanıtlanmaktadır. Araştırma bulguları,
istihbarat analizi, suç analizi ve istatistik analizi fonksiyonlarının
tüm organizasyon seviyesindeki karar verme değişkenleriyle ilintili
olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca, bir kolluk kuvveti müdürlüğünde
suç analizi biriminin bulunmasının o müdürlüğün karar verme
süresine etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Ph.D., Turkish National Police Academy, firstname.lastname@example.org
Ph.D., Turkish National Police Headquarters, email@example.com
International Journal of Security and Terrorism • Volume: 4 (1)
İstihbarat Analizi, Suç Analizi, İstatistik Analizi.
Policing has developed new appearances and applications, sometimes with radical changes
and sometimes with just slight changes (Kelling & Moore, 1991; Roberg & Kuykendall,
1997) that overcome the weaknesses, inefficiencies, or failures of the previous ones with
renewal of mission and purpose (Weisburd, Feucht, Hakimi, Mock, & Perry, 2009). Weisburd
and his associates argue that although there were significant and impressive changes and
innovations as a response to the problems and inefficiencies of previous applications, “the
terrorist attacks of 9/11 challenged this new sense of confidence in policing and raised a
set of problems that seemed to have little connection to the innovations of the previous
decade” (2009: 2). Now, it seems to be the time for the Intelligence-led policing (ILP) model
The ILP model has developed in Kent, United Kingdom, and later in the United States.
It is quite popular in this decade as many scholars have argued for and studied the ILP
approach (Anderson, 1997; Baker, 2009; Cope, 2004; Maguire, 2000; McGarrell et al.,
2007; Peterson, 2005; Ratcliffe, 2008). It is a new way of policing that uses crime analysis
to analyze crime data in order to help make decisions about preventing and reacting to crime.
Despite its popularity, its effectiveness and/or efficiency has not been sufficiently tested.
Indeed, there is not even a standard definition and approach to ILP that is agreed upon by
scholars. ILP is perceived and framed differently, depending on the perspectives of various
scholars and/or practitioners. This study focused on this new way of policing, which has
been described as a managerial philosophy, a business model, and even a paradigm in
policing (Ratcliffe, 2008). Particularly, Ratcliffe’s 3-i model of ILP was partially tested.
The 3-i model has three components (i.e., crime intelligence analysis, decision-
making, and criminal environment) and three processes (i.e., interpret, influence, and
impact). In this study, only the association between analysis and decision-making dynamics
was tested; therefore, the testing is considered to be partial. Even though it is not a direct
test of the effectiveness or efficiency of this new policing model, the partial test does look at
the association between crime analysis and decision-making. Clearly, the analysis function
in this study is considered to be effective if any significant impact on the organizational
decision-making process is found. Further, crime analysis is considered effective when the
law enforcement agency is collecting more information and analyzing more data, which
in turn may lead to a more cost-effective and/or more efficient policing strategy (Ratcliffe,
The researchers in this study compiled a cross-sectional data set by merging several
Enforcement Management and Administration Statistics (LEMAS), Uniform Crime Reports
(UCRs), and Law Enforcement Agency Identifiers Crosswalk as primary data sources that
are all contemporaneous. Using this comprehensive data set, the following questions will
be explored: To what extent does crime analysis influence police decision-making? Do crime
analysis functions influence command-level managers, detectives, and patrol officers equally?
It is critical to know if a new paradigm or popular approach (i.e., the 3-i model) is