Marko Nokkala



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5. Conclusions

In this paper, an attempt was made to illustrate the future opportunities and threats to Finland-Russia trade based on the investments in road infrastructure. Historically, there exist strong linkages between the two countries, but there has been an observed trend of declining volume of trade. Opportunities provided by the transit-trade from and to the European Union Member States can be a dominant factor in determining the future trade volumes between the two. Thus, the level of investment in infrastructure will play a crucial role in the process.


Finland has been forced to compete with Baltic countries in pricing of port services. This has lead to reduced fees, but not to a significant improvement in trade volumes, at least in the short-run. However, it may be assessed that Finland’s strengths lye elsewhere. Compared to Baltic countries, additional services and economic environment tend to be better organised. This means that the higher standard of living, sophisticated information services and infrastructure facilities should be utilised as much as possible to formulate an attractive package offered to transport decision-makers. International trade is in the point, where quality and monitoring of shipping and transport is becoming an important part of customer relationships. Many businesses require punctual deliveries due to fluctuations in production and limited storage space. These are areas where Finland could rapidly increase its competitiveness and become a dominant market leader in the EU-Russia transport. Little has been done to improve the situation, but, as it currently stands, Finland has a lot of unfulfilled potential in this area.
The findings in this paper support the view that there are certain actions to be taken in order to reach the highest potential in trade volumes. Major investments, such as those described in the large investment scenario, can increase Finland’s competitiveness without creating a major impact on the regional development. This was illustrated in the case where an increase of 1 billion in direct investment would only generate a slight increase in employment and some increase in the volume of total output of productive branches.
Finally, it should be noted that actions should be taken fast. The accession countries of the European Union are in a position to seriously challenge Finland in the near future, since they are likely to attract investments and provide low-cost services due to lower wage level than in Finland. There are many opportunities available for Finland to achieve the same development Greece has experienced, if these opportunities are capitalised.


LITERATURE

Groot, N.S.P. de, Haamsvort, C.P.C.M. van der, & Rutten, H. (eds.) 1994. Voorbij het verleden - drie toekomstbeelden voor de Nederlandse agribusiness, 1990-2015. LEI-DLO Onderzoekverslag 127, 182 p. Den Haag.


Hamsvoort, C.P.C.M., van der & Rutten, H. 1996. Seeing the future - how the scenario approach can contribute to agricultural policy-making. Contributed paper at the VIII European Association of Agricultural Economists EAAE Conference, 12 p. Edinburgh.
Kola, J. & Nokkala, M. (Eds) 1999. Structural Policy Effects in Finnish Rural Areas: A Quantitative Social Accounting Matrix Approach. University of Helsinki, Department of Economics and Management, Publications No. 23, Agricultural Policy. 192 p + Appendices. Helsinki.
Kuurna, P. 1998. Markkinoille pääsyn ongelmat Venäjällä. In Suomen lähialueet 3/98, lähialueet kauppakumppaneina. Tilastokeskus, International Business Statistics. Helsinki.
Linkama, E. 2000. Tienpidon linjaukset 2015 – tienpidon uudet painotukset. In “Väylät ja liikenne 2000. Esitelmät, 311-314. Hämeenlinna.
Mannermaa, M.1993. Tulevaisuudentutkimus tieteellisenä tutkimusalana. In: Vapaavuori, M. (ed.). Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta? Acta Futura Fennica No 5: 19-33. Helsinki.
Nokkala, M. 2001. Creating regional input-output tables for Finnish regions to support transport model. OPTILI research project. Unpublished manuscript (in Finnish) 8 p. Espoo.
Oikarinen, J. 1998. Transitokuljetukset Suomen kautta notkahduksen jälkeen kasvu-uralla. In Suomen lähialueet 3/98, lähialueet kauppakumppaneina. Tilastokeskus, International Business Statistics. Helsinki.
Rautava, J. 1998a. Suomen ja Venäjän välinen kauppa. In Suomen lähialueet 3/98, lähialueet kauppakumppaneina. Tilastokeskus, International Business Statistics. Helsinki.
Rautava, J. 1998b. Venäjän ulkomaankaupan rakennemuutos. In Suomen lähialueet 3/98, lähialueet kauppakumppaneina. Tilastokeskus, International Business Statistics. Helsinki.
Schwartz, P. 1998 The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, England. 272 p.
Sharpe, W. F. 1987. Investments. Third Edition. Prentice-Hall International Editions, New Jersey, U.S. 746 p.
Tielaitos 2000. Tienpidon linjaukset 2015. Raportti. 49 p. Helsinki.
Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland) 2000. Alueellinen panos-tuotos 1995 – Taulukot ja laadintamenetelmät. Regional Input-Output 1995 – Tables and Compilation Methods. Kansantalous 2000:19, Tilastokeskus. Helsinki.
Vapaavuori, M. (ed.) 1993. Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta? Acta Futura Fennica No 5. Finnish Society for Futures Studies. Painatuskeskus, 312 p. Helsinki.
Wennerholm, T. 1996. Scenarioteknik vid strategisk planering: tillämpning inom livsmedelskedjan. Paper at the NJF-seminar 264, June 1996, Alnarp, Sweden. 27 p.

Appendix 1- Input-output table for growth region (Region 1)


(1/2)

Input-output table 1995 at basic prices (Mio. FIM).

Agriculture

and forestry; fishing and hunting

Mining and

quarrying; Manufacuring

Electricity,

gas and water supply

Construction

Trade;

Hotels and restaurants

Transport,

storage and communi-cation

Business services

Other

services

Total

intermediate cons.




1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

*1-8

Agriculture and forestry; fishing and hunting

502,13

4138,71

2,95

0,41

41,04

2,69

2,71

55,62

4746,26

Mining and quarrying; Manufacuring

365,92

16026,08

558,53

3108,78

2515,66

821,24

1489,29

3929,12

28814,61

Electricity, gas and water supply

159,80

2405,82

2911,39

166,57

586,96

178,73

217,82

3382,54

10009,64

Construction

112,69

752,91

64,60

495,79

201,14

1979,16

12,93

4234,75

7853,95

Trade; Hotels and restaurants

268,96

1874,06

75,53

1889,78

3092,73

2096,54

2672,49

4354,17

16324,25

Transport, storage and communication

115,41

5237,59

183,53

652,74

3669,35

4137,80

1951,55

2449,08

18397,04

Business services

33,32

5054,32

150,72

350,65

1433,74

859,77

1126,72

3746,10

12755,32

Other services

189,13

4783,69

149,92

49,55

7446,27

1126,36

2651,11

25171,52

41567,55

Total use of products produced in the region (bp)

1747,35

40273,16

4097,17

6714,28

18986,90

11202,28

10124,60

47322,89

140468,63

Total use of domestic imports

1876,06

47271,84

1361,15

8235,22

8404,08

4671,83

3526,76

14021,17

89368,10

Total use of foreign imports

884,09

40897,58

1482,76

4109,68

3659,21

4040,16

2493,54

5901,31

63468,32

Total use of imported products

2760,14

88169,41

2843,91

12344,90

12063,28

8711,99

6020,30

19922,49

152836,42

Cons. expenditure of other regions' households

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Consumption expenditure of foreign households

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

VAT, other product taxes minus product subs.

-45,56

-370,66

496,82

738,60

1309,69

1467,14

500,41

6430,56

10527,00

Total intermediate cons./final cons. (purch. prices)

4461,93

128071,92

7437,90

19797,78

32359,87

21381,41

16645,31

73675,93

303832,05

Compensation of employees

1574,94

38306,29

1986,28

10171,55

24536,73

12854,25

13621,99

64827,63

167879,67

Other taxes on production

0,00

42,39

6,12

16,94

124,43

106,92

120,33

62,91

480,06

Subsidies on production

-3405,62

-687,32

-48,57

-33,87

-136,37

-113,23

-98,10

-523,19

-5046,28

Other value-added

8009,31

25455,81

5037,49

2763,56

15064,57

14119,63

4925,31

32986,97

108362,65

Value added, gross (basic prices)

6178,63

63117,16

6981,32

12918,19

39589,36

26967,57

18569,53

97354,33

271676,09

Total output (basic prices)

10640,56

191189,08

14419,22

32715,96

71949,23

48348,98

35214,84

171030,26

575508,15

Industry

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

*1-8


2(2)

Consumption

exp. of households

Consumption

exp. of non-profit inst.

Central gov.

Local gov.

Social sec.

funds

GFCF and

changes in inventories

Domestic

exports

Foreign

exports

Total final

use

Total use

Statistical

discrepancy

Total supply




9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

*9-16

*1-16

17

18

Industry

736,16

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

325,75

4364,64

451,01

5877,56

10623,82

16,74

10640,56

Agriculture and forestry; fishing and hunting

6051,46

25,05

303,77

8,10

66,90

3280,17

70586,80

81362,42

161684,67

190499,28

689,80

191189,08

Mining and quarrying; Manufacuring

1697,36

0,03

2,82

0,01

3,12

16,63

2168,20

121,21

4009,37

14019,01

400,21

14419,22

Electricity, gas and water supply

93,29

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

15780,77

8684,24

0,00

24558,31

32412,26

303,71

32715,96

Construction

22773,10

71,91

9,39

212,93

379,32

1604,64

27624,72

2776,33

55452,33

71776,58

172,65

71949,23

Trade; Hotels and restaurants

6740,00

91,51

2967,11

1266,52

262,31

112,92

9131,39

8590,79

29162,56

47559,60

789,38

48348,98

Transport, storage and communication

169,01

62,69

862,25

0,00

0,00

2592,15

11953,02

6200,07

21839,18

34594,50

620,35

35214,84

Business services

42630,42

6462,23

18414,47

38141,31

2998,31

2025,64

16005,12

1878,96

128556,45

170124,00

906,26

171030,26

Other services

80890,80

6713,42

22559,80

39628,88

3709,95

25738,65

150518,14

101380,78

431140,43

571609,06

3899,09

575508,15

Total use of products produced in the region (bp)

28085,02

507,25

1113,48

667,05

354,58

13952,86

21,62

0,00

44701,86

134069,96

-1566,03

132503,93

Total use of domestic imports

16615,53

104,23

831,70

208,00

489,01

10838,36

0,00

6,89

29093,73

92562,05

-139,24

92422,80

Total use of foreign imports

44700,55

611,47

1945,18

875,05

843,59

24791,22

21,62

6,89

73795,58

226632,01

-1705,28

224926,73

Total use of imported products

-957,63

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

957,63

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Cons. expenditure of other regions' households

-4558,17

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

4558,17

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Consumption expenditure of foreign households

25810,14

0,00

0,00

0,00

225,98

3229,22

153,22

-69,36

29349,20

39876,20

0,00

0,00

VAT, other product taxes minus product subs.

145885,70

7324,90

24504,98

40503,93

4779,53

53759,09

151650,61

105876,48

534285,21

838117,26

0,00

0,00

Total intermediate cons./final cons. (purch. prices)

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Compensation of employees

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Other taxes on production

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Subsidies on production

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Other value-added

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Value added, gross (basic prices)

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Total output (basic prices)






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