DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
Investigating the effects on the marine environment
MARYNA POVITKINA
SVERKER C. JAGERS
MARTIN SJÖSTEDT
AKSEL SUNDSTRÖM
WORKING PAPER SERIES 2013:2
QOG THE QUALITY OF
GOVERNMENT INSTITUTE
Department of Political Science
University of Gothenburg
Box 711, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG
February 2013
ISSN 1653-8919
© 2013 by Maryna Povitkina, Sverker C. Jagers, Martin Sjöstedt and Aksel Sundström. All rights reserved.
2
Democracy and economic development. Investigating the effects on the marine environment.
Maryna Povitkina
Sverker C. Jagers
Martin Sjöstedt
Aksel Sundström
QoG Working Paper Series
2013:2
February 2013
ISSN 1653-8919
ABSTRACT
Is democracy favorable or adverse for the environment? While some studies find democracy to
increase the likelihood of achieving sustainable development, others propose that democracy rather
has negative effects on the environment. This paper contributes explicitly to this debate, but also
adds insights from research arguing that the effects of democracy are conditioned by surrounding
institutions. More specifically, building on this literature, we argue that the way democracy works –
whether it is an instrument for collective action beneficial to the environment or an instrument for
patronage and clientelism – depends on levels of economic development. The overall objective of
the article is to test this proposition empirically. Using the Marine Trophic Index as a proxy for
overfishing, we investigate the impact of democracy on the health of the marine environment in a
global sample from 1972 to 2006. The analysis provides interesting insights regarding the condi-
tional role of economic development. We report negative effects of democracy in settings of low
gross national income, while this pattern is reversed when economic development has reached a
certain threshold. Finally, we discuss how democracy affects the prospects for sustainable devel-
opment and based on our conclusions offer suggestions for future studies in this field of research.
Maryna Povitkina
The Quality of Government Institute
Department of Political Science
University of Gothenburg
Marina.povitkina@gu.se
Sverker C. Jagers
Political Science Unit
Luleå University of Technology
Department of Political Science
University of Gothenburg
Sverker.jagers@pol.gu.se
Martin Sjöstedt
The Quality of Government Institute
Department of Political Science
University of Gothenburg
Martin.sjöstedt@pol.gu.se
Aksel Sundström
The Quality of Government Institute
Department of Political Science
University of Gothenburg
Aksel.sundström@pol.gu.se
3
Introduction
In a growing body of literature, scholars debate the effect of democracy on environmental degrada-
tion. While some studies find democracy to increase the likelihood of, e.g., sustainable develop-
ment, others claim that democracy has negative effects, alternatively only appears to have positive
effects on the management of some specific resources (Scruggs, 2009; Li and Reuveny, 2006; Mid-
larsky, 1998; Arvin and Lew, 2011).
This article, however, argues that the debate over democracy’s virtuous or vicious effects
may be partly misinformed. More specifically, we assert that there are substantial reasons to believe
that the effect of democracy on the environment is fundamentally conditioned by level of econom-
ic development. This proposition originates from the literature on modernization and democratic
consolidation, where it is typically argued that in societies lacking economic development, the gov-
ernance logic is quite different from that in more affluent countries (Leftwich, 1993; Collier, 2009;
Kapstein and Converse, 2008; Keefer, 2007; Zakaria, 2003; Lipset, 1959). Accordingly, if not pre-
ceded or accompanied by institutions that generate economic development (such as rule of law and
the protection of property rights), the instrumental mechanisms of democracy cannot be expected
to automatically strengthen collective action, civil society, political culture, or other factors held to
be indispensable to foster accountability, political participation, and, in the end, sustainable devel-
opment. Without such complementary institutions there are serious concerns that democracy in
many cases may be no more than an empty shell, in fact potentially opening up yet other arenas for
exploitation, patronage, and clientelism (Collier, 2009, 2007; Keefer 2007; Walker 1999). This ar-
gument also highlights the importance of sequencing. While democracy in the well-developed parts
of the world was commonly preceded by rule of law and constitutional liberalism, many of today’s
developing states are forced to complete the construction of the modern state project while at the
same time competing in general elections (Zakaria, 2003; Collier, 2009; Diamond, 2008; Persson
and Sjöstedt, 2010). Moreover, in low-income settings, democracy is often imposed from outside,
implying that there might be severe legitimacy problems and little correspondence between formal
and informal institutions, which in turn might imply that democracy does not have as positive ef-
fects in low-income settings as in more affluent societies (see Bratton, 2008; Helmke and Levitsky,
2006; Pritchett and Woolcock, 2004).
Taken together, there are substantial reasons to believe that the way democracy works –
i.e., whether it is an instrument for collective action beneficial to the environment or an instrument