4
for patronage, clientelism, and redistribution to the ruler’s closest allies – depends on level of eco-
nomic development.
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether level of democracy affects the marine environment and, if so,
whether this impact differs depending on national levels of economic development.
In order to test the relationship between democracy and the marine environment empiri-
cally, we use the Marine Trophic Index as a proxy for overfishing and available data measuring
democracy as the independent variable. The empirical analysis is in many ways more ambitious than
previous tests in the literature, with a sample of 148 countries and the health of their marine envi-
ronment over the years 1972-2006. Hence, we have a larger sample size across both more countries
and years than normally used in this literature. Our findings provide interesting insights regarding
the conditional role of development, thus developing the claim recently made by Scruggs (2009),
arguing that previous studies have not adequately taken into account the role of economic devel-
opment. We report negative effects of democracy in settings of low gross national income and
positive effects when economic development has reached a certain threshold. Moreover, we con-
tribute by adding knowledge of when democracy can be expected to generate positive environmental
outcomes.
The remaining article is organized as follows. In Section 2 we explore the theoretical ori-
gins of our argument and provide an overview of the debate over the relationship between democ-
racy and the environment. Section 3 specifies the empirical model and spells out the methodologi-
cal considerations. The statistical analysis then follows in Section 4 and, finally, Section 5 provides
conclusions and implications.
Theoretical framework
The effect of democracy on the environment is heavily debated. While some scholars argue that
democracy increases the likelihood of successful collective action and sustainable development,
others hold that democratic systems tend to fall prey to the public’s unwillingness to adopt envi-
ronmentally sound policies. According to the latter perspective, democracy either needs to be ex-
changed for a more authoritarian political system with the capacity to reorient society away from
unsustainable development paths (Ophuls, 1977; Heilbronner, 1974; also see Paehlke, 1995) or
should be guided by more deliberative and participatory ideals (Dryzek, 1987, 1992; Folke et al.,
2003; Nadasty, 2007). The scholars holding that democracy is beneficial for the environment in-
stead tend to argue that democracy is an efficient coordination mechanism and that democratic
5
values and procedures, e.g., freedom of speech and freedom of information, increase the likelihood
of sustainable development (Achterberg, 1993; Lafferty and Meadowcroft, 1995; Barrett and Grad-
dy, 2000; Jagers 2007).
The arguments proposed in this debate are as contrasting as compelling. Li and Reuveny
(2006) list five causal mechanisms for why democracy might improve environmental performance: 1)
political rights and freedom will often lead to public awareness and environmental action, 2) sys-
tems with electoral accountability will be more responsive to the influence on policy from envi-
ronmentalists, 3) due to the dominating principles of rule of law, aversion to war and respect for
life, democracies tend to produce less environmental destruction than autocracies, 4) the elite in an
autocratic society will be less pro-environmental than the public mass, and 5) relatively short time
horizons of autocratic leaders will tend to promote overexploitation. Moreover, though, the same
authors also list four mechanisms for why democracy may worsen environmental degradation: 1) the
(unlimited) freedom in a democracy will lead to unchecked behavior by overharvesting individuals,
2) autocracies can impose strict regulations on population growth, 3) democracies are often market
economies where corporate interests have more influence than environmentalists, and 4) in democ-
racies leaders will enact election-winning policies and thus tend to promote policies supporting the
employment of voters rather than the environment.
This debate has spurred numerous empirical investigations studying the relationship be-
tween the level of democracy and the quality of the environment. While some studies indicate a
positive correlation between democracy and environmental quality (Neumayer, 2002; Li and Reu-
veny, 2006; Wurster, 2011; Jagers and Sjöstedt 2011), others find negative correlations or no rela-
tionship at all (Midlarsky, 1998). For example, Li and Reuveny’s (2006) find that higher levels of
democracy reduce CO
2
and NO
x
emissions and lead to less water pollution, less land degradation,
and lower deforestation rates. In a comprehensive overview of this growing literature, Scruggs
(2009) finds 58 published studies that directly deal with the impact of democracy on measures of
environmental performance. When performing an empirical test of these propositions, the author,
interestingly, points to the role of economic development: “[Our results] raise doubts about the
environmental efficacy of democracy. The limited evidence that we do find to support a positive
democratic effect is accounted for more by economic change (specifically the collapse of the East-
ern bloc), not political liberalization. Economic wealth and the speed of economic growth (or de-
cline) have the most consistent impact on environmental performance” (Scruggs, 2009:2).
When it comes to the relationship between economic development and the environment,
empirical findings are equally confused and conflicting. The well-known Environmental Kuznets