Global Demographic Processes
Moscow State University
Spring 2017
Professor Andrey Korotayev 32 hours
akorotayev@gmail.com
Time and location: Friday 10:45-12:15, 1158
Phone: +7(917)517-8034
Office location: 30/1 Spiridonovka, Room 34
Course description
This course gives students a foundation for researching and understanding historical, contemporary,
and future global demographic processes. Topics include the global demographic transition,
mathematical models of the World System demographic development, demographic dynamics of pre-
Industrial societies and the “Malthusian Trap” theory, escape from the Malthusian Trap, “a trap at the
escape from the Trap” theory and its application to the study of the Arab Spring events, global
migration processes, risks of overpopulation in the least developed countries, demographic dividend of
the emergent markets, demographic problems of the most developed countries, forecasts of the global
demographic future. A special attention will be paid to the study of the correlation between the phase
of the global demographic transition and the phases of Great Divergence/Great Convergence. Students
will be exposed to the basics of demographic theory as well as basics of mathematical modeling of
global demographic processes.
Learning Outcomes
Upon completing this course, students should be able to achieve the Course Learning Outcomes
listed below:
Number
Course Learning Outcome (CLO)
1
Describe the trends, factors and mechanisms of the global demographic dynamics
before the early 1970s.
2
Understand the global demographic transition in conjunction with trends, factors,
mechanisms, and perspectives of the global demographic dynamics after the early
1970s.
3
Analyze the impacts of global demographic transition on the global economic
development.
4
Identify the demographic problems that the World System will face in the
forthcoming decades.
Assessment
Participation: 20%
Written examination: 40%
Oral examination: 40%
Readings
Required
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Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS, 2006.
Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles
and Millennial Trends. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS, 2006.
Korotayev A., Khaltourina D. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millen-
nial Trends in Africa. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS, 2006.
Korotayev A. V., Grinin L. E. Global Urbanization and Political Development of the World System
//
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Korotayev A. V. Globalization and Mathematical Modeling of Global Development //
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Korotayev A., Zinkina J.
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Korotayev A., Zinkina J., Kobzeva S., Bogevolnov J., Khaltourina D., Malkov A., Malkov S. A Trap
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Additional
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