Predictors of malaria infection in a wild population: Landscape level analyses reveal anthropogenic effects



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Acknowledgements

The research was funded by a PhD grant to CGQ from Colciencias and by the School of Biological Sciences of the University of East Anglia. Fieldwork was partly funded by the John and Pamela Salter Trust. We would like to thank the Spanish government for providing the permits to work in Tenerife; H. Bellman, J.C. Illera, D. Padilla, L. Spurgin and K. Phillips for field assistance and J.C. Illera, I. Melo, J.M. Ochoa and L. Spurgin for comments on the manuscript.



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Figure legends
Figure 1. Map of Tenerife…
Figure 2. Plots of predicted probabilities derived from the logistic regression models of a) distance to water reservoirs and b) distance to poultry farms with LK6 infection status as the response variable. Histograms show frequency of healthy (lower end)and infected (upper end) individuals at each 100 m distance class.

Table 1. Summary of single-predictor generalised linear (non-spatial) and autologistic (spatial) models for the effect of environmental variables on the presence of malaria in Berthelot’s pipits (fitted as a binary response variable)). AIC, p-value, Nagelkerke R2 and rank order of predictors based on AIC are shown.




Non-spatial models

Spatial models

Predictor

Coefficient

R2

p-value

AIC

Rank

Coefficient

R2

p-value

AIC

Rank

ALT

-0.001

0.057

<0.001

493.8

4

-0.001

0.118

0.005

477.3

4

PRECIP

-0.005

0.052

<0.001

495.2

5

-0.004

0.109

0.006

480.1

6

MINTEMP

0.201

0.077

<0.001

487.6

2

0.167

0.129

0.001

473.9

2

ASPECT

-0.002

0.009

0.104

507.6

9

-0.002

0.088

0.244

486.6

9

SLOPE

-0.034

0.006

0.194

508.5

10

-0.019

0.085

0.480

487.4

11

DISTWATER

-0.001

0.080

<0.001

486.9

1

-0.001

0.139

0.002

470.6

1

DISTPOUL

-1.4e-4

0.073

<0.001

489.1

3

-0.001

0.123

0.001

475.8

3

DISTFARM

-0.3e-4

0.026

0.002

495.4

6

-3.1e-4

0.118

0.008

477.3

5

DIST_URB

-0.001

0.026

0.028

502.9

7

-0.001

0.099

0.063

482.9

7

DENSITY

1.150

0.020

0.018

504.6

8

0.688

0.089

0.179

486.1

8

VEGTYPE

15.00

0.022

1.000

509.8

11

15.00

0.106

1.000

486.9

10


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