Predictors of malaria infection in a wild population: Landscape level analyses reveal anthropogenic effects



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Table 2. Autologistic models with AIC ≤ 2 when compared to the best fit model out of the 511 possible models generated.

Model rank

Predictors

AIC

AIC

1

DISTWATER + DISTPOUL

466.9

0

2

DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + VEGTYPE

467.1

0.2

3

MINTEMP + DISTWATER + DISTPOUL

467.6

0.7

4

DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + DIST_URB

468.4

1.5

5

DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + VEGTYPE + DIST_URB

468.5

1.6

6

ASPECT + DISTWATER + DISTPOUL

468.6

1.7

7

MINTEMP + DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + VEGTYPE

468.6

1.7

8

SLOPE + DISTWATER + DISTPOUL

468.7

1.8

9

DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + DISTFARM

468.8

1.9

10

MINTEMP + DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + DIST_URB

468.8

1.9

11

DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + VEGTYPE + DISTFARM

468.9

2

12

DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + DENSITY

468.9

2

13

ASPECT + DISTWATER + DISTPOUL + VEGTYPE

468.9

2


Table 3. Summed Akaike weights (wi) from all possible models that contain each predictor out of the 511 models generated.

Predictor

wi

Rank

DISTWATER

0.86

1

DISTPOUL

0.81

2

MINTEMP

0.44

3

VEGTYPE

0.41

4

DISTURB

0.33

5

ASPECT

0.32

6

DISTFARM

0.32

6

SLOPE

0.29

7

DENSITY

0.27

8


Table 4. Summary of best-fit multi-predictor autologistic models for the effect of each of four environmental variable categories (biotic, abiotic, natural, and anthropogenic) on the presence of malaria in Berthelot’s pipits. These categories of effect were assessed by comparing all possible models containing variables for each category in turn. Coefficients and p-values of predictors, as well as the AIC and Nagelkerke R2 of the best fit model for each category are shown.


Category

Predictor

Anthropogenic

Natural

Biotic

Abiotic







Coefficient

p-value

Coefficient

p-value

Coefficient

p-value

Coefficient

p-value

Anthropogenic

DISTWATER

-7.60E-04

0.010













-0.001

0.037




DISTFARM

-

-













-

-




DIST_URB

-

-













-

-




DISTPOUL

-7.75E-05

0.020







-1.20E-04

<0.001







Natural

MINTEMP







0.167

0.001







0.093

0.163




ASPECT







-

-







-

-




SLOPE







-

-







-

-




DENSITY







-

-

-

-










VEGTYPE







-

-

15

1










AIC

470.1

473.9

475.5

470.5




R2

0.16

0.129

0.149

0.146

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