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Russia Today: Rouble strength ringing alarm bells



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Russia Today: Rouble strength ringing alarm bells


http://rt.com/Business/2010-04-19/rouble-strength-ringing-alarm.html/print

19 April, 2010, 10:13

The Rouble hit fresh 16-month highs against the euro dollar currency basket on Friday, supported by oil and the carry-trade. But analysts say they are reminded of the eve of the crisis two years ago.

Déjà vu for the Russian economy. High oil prices and the strong Rouble are flirting with levels not seen since the start of the crisis.

The carry-trade boosts the Rouble – as investors borrow abroad at low interest rates and invest in Russia at higher ones. Sergey Alaksashenko from the Higher School of Economics says alarm bells should be ringing.

“Today we believe that the Rouble is on its level of autumn 2008 – pre crisis level – and this does not improve the competitiveness of the Russian economy, and this creates a huge incentive to purchase imported goods. And in a very short period of time – maybe in a year and a half or two years – that may create significant pressure on the balance of payments.”

A strong currency hurts exporting countries  – last week Japan’s lawmakers discussed a plan to devalue the yen. A bubbling oil price is the driving factor for Russia’s economy, and Vladimir Osakovsky, Economist from Unicredit Bank discounts speculation saying there are fundamental reasons driving energy demand.



“We do see GDP in the Chinese economy growing 11%, and we do see economic recovery here and there. We do see a lot of emerging markets which continue to grow during the last year for example. All of this supports the demand for oil, and its not 100% clear, I guess, how all these factors will balance out and what kind of oil prices will we see in the next several months and years.”

Analysts say, there is one drastic difference between this year and 2008 – the budget deficit. They suggest, the government should not spend the reserve fund to cover deficit- and should borrow at home rather than abroad. This would bring the Rouble down. And revenues from oil sales should again be filtered into reserve funds – just as before the crisis – to avoid pumping up the economy.




Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

Bloomberg: Aeroflot, Polymetal, Rosneft, Sistema: Russian Equity Preview


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMVv0R97eaZY

By Ilya Khrennikov

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- The following shares may have unusual price changes in Russian trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses and prices are from the previous close unless otherwise noted.

The 30-stock Micex Index fell 2.3 percent to 1,495.08. The dollar-denominated RTS Index declined 2 percent to 1,642.57.



OAO Aeroflot (AFLT RX): Russia’s largest air carrier canceled 42 flights to European cities as skies over the continent remain closed because of volcanic ash. Aeroflot fell 0.5 percent to 65 rubles.

OAO Polymetal (PMTL RX): Gold fell the most in two months and silver dropped below $18 per ounce. Polymetal, a Russian gold and silver producer, declined 1.6 percent to 317.01 rubles.

OAO Rosneft (ROSN RX): Oil fell the most in 10 weeks after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for fraud and as equities tumbled. Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, fell 2.4 percent to 245.07 rubles.

AFK Sistema (SSA LI): Russian billionaire Vladimir Yevtushenkov’s holding company may report fourth-quarter earnings. Sistema fell 5.5 percent to $29 per depositary receipt.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ilya Khrennikov in Moscow at ikhrennikov@bloomberg.net



Last Updated: April 19, 2010 00:00 EDT
Stock Markets Review: Russian stock market daily morning report (April 19, 2010, Monday)

http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/reports/russian_stock_market_daily_morning_report_20100419_4789/
By Veles Capital

Total overheating of the Russian market against the background of the negative dynamics at the foreign grounds turned into the correction on Friday. Positive financial reports of the largest North American companies for 1Q 2010 and the stats on the U.S. and the Eurozone did not affect the situation. News on dividends of Gazprom, MMC and NLMC, along with the profit of Mosenergo, appeared during the trades. But given events did not change the situation either. As a result the MICEX and RTS indices dropped as of the end of the day.




Main news

Good report of Mosenergo for 2009 according to IAS.

By the results of 2009 sales of Mosenergo reached 77.9 bn RUR, which is 19% higher than the estimate of the similar period of last year. Sales growth was provided by the successful activity of the company at the wholesale market of power energy, growth of the regulated and free prices for the power energy and capacity, growth of efficient output of heat energy, increase of sold capacity volume on behalf of the introduction of steam gas units.



Other news

- Gazprom might pay 2.39 RUR per share as dividends for 2009.

Gazprom’s management offers paying off 2009 dividends in the amount of 2.39 RUR per share, imparts Interfax referring to its sources in the company. The volume of payoff might form 56.6 bn RUR. Last year dividends of the gas monopoly totaled 0.36 RUR per share, so the growth of the dividend payments might form 6.6 times.




- MMC might pay off 0.37 RUR per share by the end of 2009.

At the Friday meeting board of directors of Magnitogorsk metallurgy company recommended the shareholders to make a decision at the meeting on Friday May 21 to payoff dividends by the results of 2009 in the amount of 0.37 RUR per share, imparts the message of the company.




- NLMC might payoff 0.22 RUR per share for 2009.

Board of directors of Novolipetsk metallurgy company recommended the shareholders to make a decision at the meeting on June 4 to payoff dividends by the results of 2009 in the amount of 0.22 RUR per share, imparts the message of the company.



19.04.2010 - Prime-TASS/banki.ru



Cbonds: Sberbank hopes to divest most non-core assets in 2010—2012


http://www.cbonds.info/all/eng/news/index.phtml/params/id/459546


PRIME-TASS. Sberbank of Russia is hopeful that it will manage to sell a majority of non-core assets it grabbed in 2010—2012, as Prime-TASS reported, Sberbank CEO and board chairman German Gref said.

According to him, “right now housing sales seem to be recovering, “although the lender won’t manage to sell all non-core assets by the end of the year”. It will be a good result “if the bank succeeds in selling all real estate assets by the end of 2011," he added.

In addition, Gref noted that Sberbank will have to develop some assets before their sale. “I hope that we’ll divest most non-core assets in 2011. Generally, it would be ideal if we managed to sell off all such assets by the end of 2011. But principally our goal is to find buyers for a majority of such assets in 2010—2012," the lender’s chief executive said.





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