SocLap sap – working draft

Iraq N. a. orientalis	3,000-7,000	2010-2014	Moderate	No trend	-	-	No trend	-	-	Salim, M.A. et al. 2007
Ireland N. a. arquata	27,830	2006-2011	Moderate	Decrease	1999-2011	Good	Decrease	1987-2011	Moderate	EU Article 12 Reporting; Crowe & Holt 2013;
Italy* N. a. arquata	6,207-7,218	2007-2009	Good	Increase	2000-2009	Good	Increase	1991-2009	Good	Birds in Europe 3 in prep.
Kuwait* N. a. orientalis	490-860	1988-1990	Moderate	-	-	-	-	-	-	BirdLife International 2014
Mauritania N. a. arquata N. a. orientalis	4,000	2010s	Unknown	Decrease	1990s-2010s	Tbc	Decrease	1980s-2010s	tbc	Unpublished data, AEWA conservation status review
Morocco N. a. arquata	308	2010s	Unknown	Decrease	1990s-2010s	Tbc	Decrease	1980s-2010s	tbc	Unpublished data, AEWA conservation status review
Netherlands N. a. arquata	143,390-219,237	2006-2010	Good	Increase	2000-2011	Good	Increase	1981-2011	Good	EU Article 12 Reporting
Norway N. a. arquata	100-500	2006	Moderate	Stable/ Fluctuating	1995-2005	Moderate	Stable/ Fluctuating	1980-2011	Moderate	Svorkmo-Lundberg et al. 2006; Ranke et al. 2011, Wold et al. 2012.
Oman N. a. orientalis	8,250-8,500	2008-2014	Poor	Decline	2008/09-2013/14	Poor	Stable	1986-2013	Moderate	De Fouw. J. et al in prep; Eriksen & Victor 2013.
Portugal N. a. arquata	1,218	2008-2012	Good	Fluctuating	2001-2012	Good	Stable	1988-2012	Moderate	EU Article 12 Reporting
Romania* N. a. arquata	40-60	1990-2002	Unknown	Unknown	-	-	Fluctuating	1990-2002	Unknown	BirdLife International 2004
Saudi Arabia* N. a. orientalis	2,000-2,700	1990-1992	Moderate	-	-	-	-	-	-	BirdLife International 2014
Senegal N. a. arquata N. a. orientalis	417	2010s	Unknown	Decrease	1990s-2010s	Unknown	Stable	1980s-2010s	Unknown	Unpublished data, AEWA conservation status review
Slovenia N. a. arquata	35-70	2001-2012	Moderate	Stable	2001-2012	Moderate	Unknown	1980-2012	Poor	EU Article 12 Reporting
Spain N. a. arquata	4,233-5,063	2008-2010	Good	Stable	2000-2010	Good	Increase	1980-2010	Good	EU Article 12 Reporting
Turkey N. a. orientalis	1,200-2,000	-	Moderate	Decline	1991-2001	Poor	-	-	-	Kılıç & Eken 2004.
Tunisia N. a. arquata	4,000-7,500	2006-2013	Moderate	Decline	2006-2013	Moderate	Decline	1976-2011	Moderate	Czajkowski 1984; Van Dijk et al. 1984; AAO database 2013
Ukraine* N. a. arquata N. a. orientalis	1,400-3,700 (passage only)	Unknown	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Delany et al. 2009
United Arab Emirates* N. a. orientalis	1,440-1,650	1990-1992	Moderate	-	-	-	-	-	-	Critical Site Network Tool
United Kingdom N. a. arquata	150,000	2004-2008	Good	Decline	1999-2010	Good	Increase	1980-2010	Good	Holt et al. 2012
Uzbekistan N. a. orientalis	180-1,500^1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Elena Kreuzberg, pers. comm. 2014.
Yemen N. a. orientalis	<1,000	-	Poor	-	-	-	-	-	-	Richard Porter, pers. comm. 2014.

2. THREATS
2.1. General Overview of Threats

This chapter discusses threats that are known or suspected to be having a negative impact on Eurasian Curlew populations. They include factors that are directly affecting population size through increased mortality of adults and chicks as well as factors that are indirectly affecting population size through loss of habitat, disturbance, etc. Threats have been assessed for each subspecies and have been made on the basis of severity (the impact on the population) and scale (the proportion of the population affected by the threat).

Several scientific studies have investigated threats acting upon Eurasian Curlew populations in Europe, both on their breeding grounds and on their wintering grounds. In such cases, the impact that threats have on the population is relatively well understood, supported by published scientific papers (i.e. experimental or correlative studies). Several studies have recorded productivity levels below those required for population stability, and there is consensus that breeding population declines are being caused by low productivity alongside the loss, degradation and fragmentation of breeding habitats. In the near future, there are concerns that senescence (an ageing population as a consequence of poor breeding success) may begin to exacerbate the trend of reproductive failure, and also lead to decreasing adult survival (Taylor and Dodd 2013). A summary overview of threats is provided in Table 4, followed by a description of each threat and an explanation of its rank, as set out below.

Key to threat assessment ranks⁴:

Critical: a factor causing or likely to cause very rapid declines (>30% over 10 years)

High: a factor causing or likely to cause rapid declines (20-30% over 10 years)

Medium: a factor causing or likely to cause relatively slow, but significant, declines (10-20% over 10 years)

Low: a factor causing or likely to cause fluctuations

Local: a factor causing or likely to cause significant impacts at specific sites

Unknown: A factor likely to affect the subspecies but it is unknown to what extent

Table 4: Overview of threats acting upon the three subspecies of Eurasian Curlew.

	Stress	Threat	N. a. arquata	N. a. orientalis	N. a. suschkini
BREEDING SEASON	Mortality on breeding grounds	A. Nest and chick predation	Critical	Unknown	Unknown
		B. Nest destruction and increased chick mortality due to agricultural operations (including mowing, trampling and burning)	Medium-high	Unknown/local	Unknown
		C. Mortality caused by hunting on breeding grounds	Absent-low	Medium-high	Medium-high
		D. Mortality caused by illegal killing on breeding grounds	Absent	Unknown	Unknown
	Loss, degradation and fragmentation of breeding habitats	E. Impacts of agricultural on breeding habitats (including intensification, specialisation and disturbance)	Critical	Low	Low
		F. Land abandonment on breeding grounds	Unknown/medium	Unknown/low	Absent
		G. Loss and degradation of peat bog habitats used for breeding	Unknown/medium	Unknown	Unknown
		H. Pollution on breeding grounds	Unknown	Unknown	Unknown
		I. Afforestation on breeding grounds	Medium	Low	Low
		J. Residential and commercial developments on breeding grounds	Local	Local-medium	Low
		K. Oil and gas drilling and associated infrastructure on breeding grounds	Local	Local-medium	Local
		L. Human disturbance on breeding grounds (excluding disturbance from agricultural activities)	Local	Local-medium	Local-medium
		M. Expansion of wind turbines on breeding grounds	Medium	Low	Low
		N. Impact of climate change on breeding grounds	Local-medium	Local-medium	Local-medium
NON-BREEDING SEASON	Mortality on non-breeding grounds	O. Mortality caused by hunting during migration and on non-breeding grounds	Unknown/disputed	Unknown	Unknown
		P. Mortality caused by illegal killing during migration and on non-breeding grounds	Unknown/low	Unknown	Unknown
	Loss, degradation & fragmentation of non-breeding habitats	Q. Pollution on non-breeding grounds	Unknown	Unknown	Unknown
		R. Human disturbance on non-breeding grounds	Unknown	Unknown	Unknown
		S. Shellfisheries on non-breeding grounds	Low	Unknown	Unknown
		T. Impact of climate change (incl. sea level rise) on non-breeding grounds	Local-medium	Local-medium	Unknown
		U. Residential and commercial developments on non-breeding grounds	Local	Unknown/ medium	Unknown
		V. Drainage on non-breeding grounds	Local	Unknown	Unknown

Threats on breeding grounds

A. Nest and chick predation

arquata: critical orientalis: unknown suschkini: unknown