32
This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications
(25%, 128 tonnes). By comparison, Roskill (2010) estimates total secondary production at 602
tonnes and Gibson and Hayes (2011) estimate 630 tonnes.
As detailed in Table 11, after combining primary (770 tonnes) and secondary supply (610
tonnes), we estimate total global refined indium supply at 1,380 tonnes in 2013. After including
secondary production, China’s dominance in the sector is reduced from its 53% market share to
40% of overall supply. When using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) to estimate market
concentration by country, we calculate an HHI of ~2,870 for total indium supply, compared to
~3,370 when estimating concentration for primary refinery production only.
30
The decrease is
principally due to the decreased market share of Chinese producers when including secondary
supply.
Table 11. Total Indium Production (2013)
2013 Indium Refinery Production
Primary Supply
Secondary Supply
(i.e., Primary
Supply Abatement)
Total
tonnes
%
tonnes
%
tonnes
%
Belgium
30
4%
51
8%
81
6%
Canada
65
8%
5
1%
70
5%
China
410
53%
150
25%
560
40%
Germany
n/a
0%
1
0%
1
0%
Japan
71
9%
362
59%
433
31%
Peru
10
1%
n/a
n/a
10
1%
Russia
13
2%
n/a
n/a
13
1%
South Korea
150
19%
40
7%
190
14%
Others
25
3%
n/a
n/a
25
2%
Total
770
100%
610
100%
1,380
100%
Source: Table 5 and Table 10
Figure 15 and Figure 16 show that the total indium supply curve keeps its general shape from
Section 3.6. Supply is highly elastic at $150–$300/kg. That is, a small change in
price induces a
relatively large change in quantity supplied. This suggests a price floor for indium of ~$150/kg.
At lower prices very little indium is produced, and at prices lower than $200, virtually no
secondary supply is produced. Short-term indium supply becomes inelastic at prices higher than
$300/kg because of capacity constraints; a price increase thus induces little, if any, additional
supply.
30
The U.S. Department of Justice normally considers an HHI of 1,500–2,500 points to be moderately concentrated; markets in
which the HHI exceeds 2,500 points are believed to be highly concentrated.
33
This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications
Figure 15. Comparison of short-term primary and total indium supply
Figure 16. Comparison of short-term total indium supply under
differing assumptions of pipeline efficiency
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
U
S$/
kg
of
ref
ined
indi
um
m
et
al
(2011
U
S$)
Annual production
(tonnes of indium metal per annum)
Short-term indium supply curves
primary supply
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
U
S$/
kg
of
ref
ined
indi
um
m
et
al
(2011
U
S$)
Annual production
(tonnes of indium metal per annum)
Total short-term indium supply curves
status quo
Scenario 1
Scenario 2