Low: @3% CAGR
Indium demand in ITO applications is derived from a linear interpolation of the European
will continue to comprise 84% of total demand as shown in Figure 1.
Indium fed into recycling plants calculated as estimated secondary supply ÷ 65%.
Without any improvements to technology or pipeline efficiency, we estimate indium primary
production to be approximately 730, 830, and 1,365 tpa in 2011, 2016, and 2031, respectively
(Table 19). Production is currently relatively concentrated, with about half in China, and we do
not expect this to change significantly in the medium term. When including the possibility for
greater recovery and pipeline efficiency, primary and secondary production could more than
double to 3,370 and 5,560 tonnes, respectively, thus highlighting the significant impact that
advancements in technology can have on supply.
Significant secondary supply of approximately 610 tonnes currently takes place close to high-
tech manufacturing centers such as Japan, South Korea, and China. As demand for flat-panel
displays expands, we estimate that secondary supply could reach levels of 780 and 1,690 tonnes
in 2016 and 2031. When considering the potential for improvements in recycling recovery rates,
secondary supply could be as much as 1,080 and 2,340 tonnes over the same period. As
previously noted, secondary supply from manufacturing waste is not a substitute for primary
supply, and although recycling can significantly reduce primary indium demand (and thus reduce
short-term supply shortages or risks), secondary supply from manufacturing waste does not
address long-term supply risks.
As shown in Figure 24 (2016) and Figure 25 (2031), the total indium supply curve keeps its
opportunity costs of capital are now included in the curve. This increase to overall cost is
somewhat offset by projected efficiency improvements that spread fixed costs over more units of
recovered indium, and therefore lead to a lower average cost for indium production.
Figure 23. Comparison of medium-term primary and total indium supply in 2016
(tonnes of indium metal per annum)
Medium-term indium supply curves (2016)
total supply (primary + secondary)
total supply (base case + recovery efficiencies)