The Availability of Indium: The Present, Medium Term, and Long Term
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This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications As indicated by the wide range of possible values contained within the confidence intervals, this analysis is a very crude approximation of indium’s long-term price. Although additional data or different techniques may help to reduce the variation in the estimates, these would not address some of the underlying weaknesses with this approach. For example, although the plots in Figure 26 and Figure 27 can be intuitively appealing, the methodology ignores specific features of minerals that complicate such a broad-brush comparison: • Various minerals and types of ore bodies are associated with varying degrees of metallurgical complexity. This complexity directly affects costs and yields, which in turn affect historical supply and prices. • Various types of deposits are found in various types of mines The depth and geometry of these deposits can affect mining-specific costs and recoveries or add dilution. External dilution tends to not be reported in company resource estimates and would therefore potentially bias the ore concentration calculation. • Many deposits contain more than one mineral. A mineral’s association with other metals (i.e., whether it is a main product, coproduct, or byproduct) and its overall contribution to a mine’s profitability will directly affect the level of costs and therefore the price required to recover that mineral. Despite these shortcomings, these estimates provide an important starting point for assessing the long-term supply of indium. Further work is needed to estimate the quantities of indium likely contained in deposits of different concentrations, mineralogies, and geographic locations. 55
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