TüRKİye ekonomi kurumu
Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3
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3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 39 - Issues in Northern Cyprus Economy Workshop 3 Convergence of Incomes And Growth Rates in Both Zones of Cyprus MEHMET, Özay (Eastern Mediterranean University) YORUCU, Vedat (Eastern Mediterranean University)
Unfortunately, the subject has hardly been studied in the case of Cyprus, except for a single study comparing productivity rates in the North and South (Demetriates, Fethi and Fethi (2002) and work by Mehmet (2009) as part of the Annan Plan negotiations. We wish to fill this deficiency based on work we have previously done in the field (Mehmet, 2009). Accordingly, the proposed paper will use an econometric model to determine the timing of full convergence of incomes and growth rates in the North and South of Cyprus, regardless of whether there is a political settlement or not. Two scenarios will be formulated, one with, the other without political settlement. In developing the convergence model most appropriate for Cyprus, we will examine the convergence literature intensively. In particular, we shall be taking special note of similar work in the EU and other island economies (Rodriguez and Velazquez (2009) and Verblane, and Vahter (2005)). Data sources will be official statistics from both zones of the island. The paper will also have significant policy implications, especially for infra-structural capital expenditure projects. JEL codes: O47; O57 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 40 - Economic Systems and Institutions Workshop 4 “Destructive” and “Creative” Motions of the Capitalist System AYDIN, Derya Güler (Hacettepe University) TAKAY, Bahar Araz (Hacettepe University) dgaydin@hacettepe.edu.tr This study aims to search whether Schumpeter’s basic arguments provide analytical tools for both causes and results of the global crises or not. The analysis of Schumpeter starts out from the argument that the working of capitalism undermines its own institutional structure. Schumpeter stated that capitalism is a successful system which cannot destruct in the near future because of its creative functions. Because of this reason, the destruction of capitalism depends on its creative property. Creative destruction process can be seen as a revolutionary process by means of destructing old forms and creating new ones. Schumpeter, regarding the institutional collapse, suggesting that the very success of capitalism is the basic cause of its failure. Thus, in the first section, the dynamic and evolutionary characteristics and working of capitalism in Schumpeterain framework will be examined. The topic of the second section is the sources of instabilities and crises. Also, the interaction between the economic and the non economic areas of the society will be evaulated in this section. In the last section, the effects of these interactions on both causes and future of capitalism after global crises will be investigated. JEL codes: B20; B25
BABACAN, Mehmet (İstanbul Commerce University) mbabacan@iticu.edu.tr Institutions are currently regarded as important factors leading to growth. Yet, institutions have a wide range of consequences in terms of economic performance among countries as some advance rapidly and maintain a long-run economic development and growth while some fall short of achieving the development targets and sustaining a long-run growth performance. The new institutional economics emerged amid the need for an explicit depiction of the roles of institutions in explaining growth. Governance and other institutional structures accepted as the main driving forces for income convergence among countries, in that line of economic research. The aim of this paper is first to discuss the current literature on institutions with attribution to governance and policies that lead to growth. A critical analysis reveals the fact that the new institutional economics should be considered as an offshoot of the neo-classical growth theory. The relationship between institutions and growth will then be discussed under the light of empirical literature. Institutional and income convergence are the main sources of empirical search with an implementation on the comparative performances of different country sets. It is expected to be the case that institutional convergence does not necessarily lead to income convergence among countries. JEL codes: O43; F43 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 40 - Economic Systems and Institutions Workshop 4 The Emergence of Capitalist Authoritarianism: Why Government Needs to Intervene? (A Philosophical Critiques of Libertarian Anarchist) FİTRİ, Nofia (Esatern Mediterranean University) nofiafitri@yahoo.co.id Formulated by Murray Rothbard through the libertarian philosophy, the anarcho capitalism views that orderly anarchy as a desirable and potentially achievable state of affairs which every man is self-owner. Within this paper I mention that the capitalist authoritarianism has emergence as the effect of free-market capitalism itself, which Chomsky stated as a system of domination with authoritarian control. However this conception has been explained through Marxian tradition affiliated with the Frankfurt school which mentioned that one of the greatest sins of capitalism is the alienation of man from himself, therefore individual have a little sense of control over their own fate then being authoritarian. Within this paper I attempt to explore moral philosophy approaches through the conceptions of authoritarian and freedom principle, examine my hypothesis that “a fairly competitive market sphere could establish by the balance acts of private sectors and government’s roles.” My philosophical analysis would display the model of ‘a limited market sphere’ which state as an authoritarian actor (limited freedom-dominate intervention) in one hand and ‘a chaotic market sphere’ as a capitalist authoritarianism (over freedom-non intervention) in the other hand. Thus this examination would deliver the concept of ‘a fairly market sphere’ (fairly freedom-qualify intervention) with a qualified of government intervention. JEL codes: P10, F0, F5, N4. 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 40 - Economic Systems and Institutions Workshop 4 Open Systems and Co-Evolutionary Interaction of Institutional Structures: State Business Relations in Turkey from a Different Perspective on Path Dependence and Change GÜRAKAR, Esra Çeviker (Marmara University) esragurakar@gmail.com The broad literature on state-society relations in Turkey (e.g. from Modernization theory Heper (1991), Mardin (1992); from critical institutionalism Bugra (2008), from left Weberian approach Insel (1996); and Marxist theory Keyder (1987, 2007) have converged around the same common stand-point is that Ottoman-Turkish history is marked by a peculiar historical continuity incarnated in a ‘strong state-weak society tradition’. The distinctive feature of the arguments stems from the assertion that the state elites have been dominating not only popular classes but also the dominant ones, specifically the bourgeoisie. This weakness of the dominant classes, exclusively the bourgeoisie, is asserted at the level of accumulation strategies. This study adopts a different perspective in that rather than focusing on mechanisms that anchor the institutional paths to some fixed routes; it explores processes of change in institutional paths in systems that are defined as open. Accordingly it proposes a new dimension which can be called as the Clash of Paths. In this framework, structural factors affect the establishment, reformation and persistence of institutions through a path dependent process, but the path of a country can well be affected by the outsider’s paths. Accordingly, the significance of interaction between internal and external factors in weakening the self-reinforcing processes is demonstrated via the framework in which changes in the international system determine the allocation of de facto political power among different economic classes via altering the means and the ways of distribution of resources at the national level. In view of that, first the structural, that is path dependent factors that lead to the so-called “strong state weak bourgeoisie” is elaborated. Than the critical junctures and the related branching pathways at which choices made by the collective actors in an environment of co-evolutionary interaction of institutional structures in such an open system determine particular entrenchment, shift or complete switch in some specific organizational types. Consequently, it appears that the power of the Turkish bourgeoisie was on an increasing trend that they played significant roles in transformation periods due to the very raison d\'être proposed by the Clash of Paths. This was the case in transition from agriculture-based development scheme of post World War-II to industrialization-led planned development initiative in 1960, as well as from import substitution industrialization programme to export-oriented growth project in 1980. JEL codes: B52; P16 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 41 - Issues in Emerging Markets and Europe Workshop 5 The Greek Malady and Contagion in International Financial Markets AKER, Ahmet (Cyprus International University) AKER, Şule (Eastern Mediterranean University)
Securities prices are determined by expectations regarding the yields and potential value changes of the underlying assets. With many securities quoted in multiple financial markets and with the ease with which money may now be moved from one financial center to another almost instantaneously, it is natural that price movements in one financial center will spill over to other financial centers and affect both the prices and the volumes of trade. This is indeed the point in connecting financial centers: to equalize the return to risk in a uniform global manner. In other words, securities prices will move according to expected changes in risks and rewards. If expecteds risks or rewards in one security change, it is natural that trading activity in this security will affect the prices and volume of trade of other securities and will normally spill over to to other financial centers. This is indeed the part and parcel of the smooth running of international financial markets. Nobody will characterize this as ‘contagion’. Yet, contagion in the form of unwarranted upheavals and price drops in international securities markets do occur as they have done so very recently. The authors would like to test the hypothesis that the underlying factor causing a contagion is the mis-valuation of government debt instruments. They would like to argue that at certain critical times mis-valued sovereign debt instuments will emanate a heightened but indefinite risk injection into the financial markets and upset them. This heightened but indefinite risk injection will spill over to other financial markets and upset them too. The indefinite nature of the heightened risk will unsettle all financial markets until the heightened risk is fully understood and digested by the market. The authors would like to find out whether there are any differences in the ways in which rating companies assess private and government debt. Any differences between the methodlogy of assesing pivate company debt and country debt would give clues in this direction. Secondly, the authors would like to look at disclosure as it pertains to private company debt and government debt. They suspect that dislosure is more rigorously enforced when it comes to private company debt and is much less vigorously enforced when it comes to government debt. When sudedenly some undisclosed information about a country is revealed, the market reacts. And it most likely overeacts because of the suspicion that not the whole story has been told. It is highly possible that these are the sources of sudden, unexpected and not clearly definable bursts of heightened risk and the consequent drop of securities prices. JEL codes: F34; F32
ELEKDAĞ, Selim (Central Bank of Turkey) SAMANCIOĞLU, Zahid (Central Bank of Turkey) SARIKAYA, Çağrı (Central Bank of Turkey) selim.elekdag@tcmb.gov.tr
JEL codes: F30; G10 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 41 - Issues in Emerging Markets and Europe Workshop 5 The Contagion Effect: Evidences From Former Soviet Economies in Eastern Europe İNSEL, Aysu (Marmara University) KORKMAZ, Abdurrahman (Karadeniz Technical University)
Dornbusch, Park and Claessens (2000) defined “fundamentals-based contagion” that captures normal interdependence among markets and can be explained by the macroeconomic fundamentals; whereas “irrational phenomena” that cannot be explained by the macroeconomic fundamentals. In this paper, the term of contagion refers to “irrational phenomena” as defined by Dornbusch et al. (2000). The structure of this paper is as follows: (i) It is allowed for both financial crises (bad times) and manias (good times) representing negative financial crises after controlling for interdependence; (ii) The hypothesis on the existence of contagion effect for each economy has been tested using a speculative pressure index as the performance indicator which is related to the financial turbulences; (iii) Following Pesaran and Pick (2007), the “threshold test” has been utilized using generalized instrumental variables estimation (GIVE) approach. This research consists of seven former-Soviet economies: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine and covers the period of 1995:09-2009:12. In the methodological structure, the first version tests the existence of contagion effect originating from other six economies for each economy. Since three (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) of the seven countries have become the member of the European Union in May 2004, it is also important to distinguish the member and non-member countries and then test for the existence of contagion effect not only in the groups but also across the groups. Thus, the second version investigates the existence of the contagion effect by including an exogenous (EU member) dummy variable in version one. The third version classifies the economies as members and non-members of the EU and investigates the existence of contagion effect across the groups. The fourth version is similar to third version but includes an exogenous dummy variable like second version. Concerning the differences between the EU member and non-member economies, the expected results of this paper are related to the answers to the research questions: (i) Whether or not, the origin of contagion effect in a member (non-member) country is originated from non-member (member) country; (ii) Whether or not, the test for the existence of contagion effect would provide different results for the groups and across the groups. (iii) Whether or not, the stated financial variables are sufficient to explain the existence of contagion effect.
JEL codes: C30; G01; G15 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 41 - Issues in Emerging Markets and Europe Workshop 5 Transmission Mechanisms between Turkey-US and Turkey-EU: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model CİVCİR, İrfan (Ankara University) VAROĞLU, Dizem Ertaç (Near East University)
According to literature, VAR models are used when there is a unit root for each variable but a cointegrating relationship cannot be confirmed. However, if both a unit root and a cointegrating relationship are found in the system, then the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) needs to be used. Therefore, this study employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and identifying restrictions are imposed based on literature which indicated that the three cointegrating relationships represented real money, real prices, and interest rates. The findings indicate that Turkish macroeconomic variables respond quite differently to shocks coming from the US and the EU. Impulse responses of Turkish macroeconomic variables to one standard deviation shocks from the US and the EU are produced and responses are mostly significant. For instance, whereas a positive shock to US inflation rate leads to a decrease in output levels in Turkey, a shock to EU inflation rates leads to a permanent and substantial increase in the output levels of Turkey. For incidence, a US monetary policy shock leads to a persistent increase in the Turkish GDP, whereas the EU monetary policy shock leads to a slight decrease. The findings of the paper are encouraging and point out to the strong economic ties of Turkey with the US and EU economies. Additionally, differences between country-specific disturbances of transmission mechanisms are realized. JEL codes: C13; C32; E30; E32
AKBOSTANCI, Elif (Middle East Technical University) ÖZŞUCA, Ekin Ayşe (Middle East Technical University, Çankaya University)
This paper will investigate the bank lending channel of monetary policy for the Turkish economy by specifically focusing on the role of banks in the monetary policy. Moreover, recently Turkey has experienced changes in financial regulations which are expected to affect the bank lending channel. This paper would provide a framework for exploring questions of how these developments may have affected the bank lending channel of the monetary transmission mechanism. The main research question of the paper is how does the bank lending channel, which propagates the output effects of monetary policy works, in Turkey. In order to shed light on the issue, differences in the response of banks with different characteristics will be analyzed at the micro level. There are few studies available that focus on the bank lending channel in Turkey and scarce empirical evidence on this issue shows conflicting results. In other words, whether the bank lending channel exists in Turkey remains an unsolved issue. It is crucial to address this question and provide extensive evidence for a better understanding of the monetary transmission mechanism. By looking at the sector as a panel of banks at the micro level, this paper is expected to contribute to the existing literature by re-examining bank lending channel in Turkey in several aspects. The analysis will cover a larger time series period than all other studies on bank lending channel in Turkey, so it will update the evidence by using newly available data from 2006 onwards. Furthermore, the study is expected to shed light on the change in the behavior of the banks after 2001, thus the impact of the amendments in the financial regulations on the credit channel, by dividing the sample into two different periods as, 1988-2001 and 2002-2009. It is important to answer the question of whether there is a bank lending channel in Turkey in several ways. A clearer understanding of the nature of monetary transmission mechanism would provide useful information for designing an appropriate and effective monetary policy. Furthermore, this knowledge can be utilized to understand the links between the financial and real sectors of the economy. This analysis would take account the distributional effect of the monetary policy as well. JEL codes: E52; E44 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 42 - Monetary Policy and Monetary Transmission Mechnanisms Workshop 6 Optimal Monetary Policy under Sectoral Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence ALP, Sevim Kösem (Central Bank of Turkey) sevim.alp@tcmb.gov.tr This paper analyzes the relevance of sectoral inflation persistence differentials for optimal monetary policy using a two-sector sticky price model, which generalizes the standard models by introducing backward looking price setting into both sectors. The results show that even if the sectors have the same degree of inflation persistence, optimal inflation targeting policy attaches different weights to these unless they have exactly the same price setting mechanism. In particular, different combinations of price change frequency and backward looking price setting parameters can produce the same inflation persistence but have different implications for the optimal inflation targeting policy. However, the optimal inflation targeting rule attaches a higher weight to the inflation of the sector with a flatter Philips curve whether it is more persistent or not. JEL codes: E31; E52 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 42 - Monetary Policy and Monetary Transmission Mechnanisms Workshop 6 An Analysis of The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission Mechanism for Turkey ERDOĞDU, Oya S. (Ankara University) ose301@yahoo.com New Keynesian models note the significance of cost push factors for monetary policy formulation. In standard New Keynesian IS/ LM model, the Phillips’ curve formulation is based on Calvo (1983), which indicates that firms set the nominal price based on the expectations of future marginal costs. Besides excess demand, the model states the validity of any shock to expected marginal cost as well, but do not state the link between marginal cost and output gap. Therefore although these models note the importance of cost push shocks to distinguish the sources of shocks to the economy and for stating the methodology of inflation targeting, they do not model marginal cost explicitly. That kind of modelling leads to a Taylor rule type monetary policy formulation stating an optimal rule that is; rising nominal interest rate sufficient enough to increase real rates, in response to an increase in expected inflation. However, recent studies model marginal costs in detail and note the significance of cost factors. These studies state that demand adjustment policies may not be optimal once financing labor cost may become an obstacle for effectiveness of monetary policy. Recent studies note that firms’ behaviour to finance costs of production challanges monetary authority’s success. Bart and Ramey (2001), Adolfson et al(2005), Rabanal (2007), Henzel, Hülsewig, Mayer and Wollmershauser (2008) are some theoretical studies on this new monetary tarnsmission mechanism that focuses on the cost side of the economy. The so called “cost channel of monetary transmission mechanism” indicates that higher interest rates leads to higher marginal cost of production and thus higher inflation as opposed to standard New Keynesian teaching. Following the empirical studies by Ravennna and Walsh (2006), Chowdhurry (2006) and Tillman (2008), this paper investigates the Turkish economy for the effectiveness of this channel of monetary transmission mechanism. Tillman (2008) states that for this mechanism to work, there has to be signficant number of firms in the economy that operates under serious financial constraints. It is believed that Turkish firms are operating under significant financial constraints which may be gotten worse by credit problems due to the economic crise. Previous empirical studies that are stated indicate that cost channel works as an important mechanism for inflation dynamics of United Kingdom, United States of America and Euro Area Economies. As to author’s knowlodge this study is the first attempt for testing for the significance of this monetary transmission mechanism for a developing country.
ÖZLÜ, Pınar (Central Bank of Turkey) YALÇIN, Cihan (World Bank)
JEL codes: E44; E52 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Seçilmiş Oturum 43 - Sektörel Analizler: Türkiye Örneği II Workshop 7 Küresel Ekonomik Kriz Sürecinde ve Sonrasında Türkiye’de Tarım Sektörünün Görünümü ERAKTAN, Selahattin (Ankara Universitesi) DELLAL, İlkay (Ankara Universitesi) KESKİN, Gülşen (Tarımsal Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü) CEYLAN, Coşkun (Ankara Universitesi)
Türkiye’de tarım sektörü, Gayrisafi Yurt İçi Hasılanın %10’unu, istihdamın %24’ünü, ihracatın %6’sını sağlayarak ekonomi içindeki önemini sürdürmektedir . Türkiye’de tarımsal faaliyetin küçük aile işletmelerinden elde edilmesi, bu nedenle girdi ve kredi kullanım oranlarının düşük olması, tarım ürünlerinin pek çoğunun talep ve arz esnekliklerinin düşük olması gibi nedenler tarım sektörünün küresel ekonomik krize karşı direncinin diğer sektörlerden daha fazla olmasına neden olmuştur . Ayrıca kriz süresince, diğer sektörlerden kopan işgücüne istihdam sağlayarak ve pozitif gerçekleşen tarımda büyüme oranlarıyla ülke ekonomisinin daha iyi görünümüne olanak sağlamıştır. Bu bildiride küresel ekonomik kriz döneminde ve sonrasında Türkiye’de tarım sektörünün durumu incelenecektir. Bu amaçla, kriz döneminde tarımın genel ekonomiye katkısı ve krizin tarım piyasalarına etkisi olmak üzere iki aşamada değerlendirme yapılacaktır. Kriz döneminde tarımın genel ekonomiye katkısının açıklanacağı ilk bölümde dünyada kriz sürecinde ve sonrasında tarım sektörünün genel görünümü temel ekonomik parametreler itibariyle verilecektir. Aynı dönemde Türkiye’de Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve tarımsal Gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılada büyüme hızı, istihdam, ihracat, ithalat açısından katkısı incelenecektir. Küresel Ekonomik Krizin tarım piyasalarına etkisinin verileceği ikinci bölüm, seçilmiş üç piyasa üzerinden incelenecektir. Tarım ürünlerinden, talep elastikiyetinin en düşük ürün grubu olan tahıllar ile talep elastikiyetinin en yüksek olduğu kırmızı et ele alınacaktır. Üçüncü piyasa olarak ise dünya piyasalarında krizin en fazla etkilediği alanın otomotiv ve yan sanayi olması nedeniyle, tarım açısından traktör piyasası ele alınacaktır. Bildirinin son bölümünde ise kriz sonrasında tarım sektörünü görünümü ve geleceğe yönelik beklentiler verilecektir. JEL kodları: Q10; Q13 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Seçilmiş Oturum 43 - Sektörel Analizler: Türkiye Örneği II Workshop 7 Türkiye’de Tarımsal Verimliliğin Belirleyenleri ŞENTÜRK, Bilge (Muğla Üniversitesi) GÖKOVALI, Ümmühan (Muğla Üniversitesi)
Tarım sektörü birçok ülkede özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin kalkınma sürecinde kritik bir rol oynamış ve oynamaya da devam etmektedir. Tarım sektörü temel gıda maddeleri sağlaması ve diğer sektörlerle olan bağlantısı nedeniyle de ayrı bir öneme sahiptir. Tarım, ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyinden bağımsız olarak da kendine yeterlilik açısından ele alınması gereken kritik bir sektördür. Dünya gıda fiyatlarındaki artışların 2007 yılında yaşanan kuraklıkla birleşerek tarımsal ürün fiyatlarını yukarı çekmesi tarımın önemini tekrar gündeme taşımıştır. Tarım sektöründe sınırlı kaynakların kullanımı, tarımsal üretimin iyileştirilmesi, kendine yeterliliğin sağlanması ve fiyat dalgalanmalarının olumsuz etkilerinden kaçınmak için, verimlilik çok önemli bir role sahiptir. Tarım sektöründe verimlilik gerek alan, gerekse işgücü ve sermaye birimlerine düşen çıktı miktarları arasındaki ilişkidir. Tarım sektöründe verimlilik genel olarak sulama, gübreleme, ilaçlama, tohum, işgücü, toprak ve makine kullanımı gibi faktörlerden etkilenmektedir. Bunların yanında tarımsal ürünlerin taşınması, depolanması, girdi fiyatları, üretici örgütlerin durumu, sosyal yapı, toprak yapısı ve iklim durumu gibi unsurlar da tarımsal verimliliği etkileyebilmektedir. Türkiye ekonomisi içinde tarım sektörünün önemi yıllar içerisinde azalma gösterse de tarım hala üretim, istihdam ve dış ticaretteki önemini korumaktadır. Türk tarım sektörüne ilişkin yapılan çalışmalar daha çok teknik etkinlik ve toplam faktör verimliliği analizlerine dayanmaktadır. Literatürde sektörel etkinliğin ölçülmesi iki eksende gelişmiştir. Birincisi parametrik diğeri ise parametrik olmayan yöntemlerdir (Çakmak ve Zaim, 1998; Akçay ve Esengün, 1999; Çakmak vd., 2008). Bu çalışmada verimlilik ve etkinlik kavramları arasındaki ayrım dikkate alınarak, 1970-2008 döneminde Türk tarım sektöründe verimliliğin zaman içinde değişmesine yol açan faktörler uygun ekonometrik tahmin yöntemleri ile belirlenmeye çalışılmakta ve bu faktörlerin verimliliği hangi düzeyde etkiledikleri test edilmektedir. Geleneksel üretim faktörlerinin yanında teknolojik girdi faktörleri de verimliliğin belirleyicisi olarak ele alınacaktır. Bağımlı değişken üretim ve verimlilik (tarımsal emek verimliliği ve toprak verimliliği), bağımsız değişkenler ise tarımsal ve teknolojik girdiler ve tarımsal girdi dışındaki faktörlerden oluşmaktadır. Bağımsız değişkenlerin seçiminde Prasad vd. (2006), Reardon ve Vosti (1995) ve Carter ve Barrett (2006)’in üretim fonksiyonu çalışmaları dikkate alınmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda teknolojik girdi faktörlerinin geleneksel girdi faktörleri kadar önemli olduğu beklenmektedir. Tarım sektöründe verimlilik artışlarını açıklayabilecek değişkenlerin belirlenmesi, tarımsal politikaların belirlenmesine ve uygulanmasına katkı sağlayacaktır. Tarımsal verimlilik artışları, temel gıda fiyatlarını düşürerek tüketicilerin refahını arttırdığı gibi dışa açık bir ekonomide tarım sektörünün rekabet gücünü de olumlu etkileyecektir. Bu nedenle tarımsal verimlilik artışlarına neden olan faktörlerin belirlenmesi ve bu yönde tarımsal politikaların geliştirilmesi önem arz etmektedir. JEL kodları: Q10; C51
TERZİOĞLU, Mustafa (Muğla Üniversitesi) GÖKOVALI, Ümmühan (Muğla Üniversitesi)
Türk tekstil ve hazır giyim sektörünün ülke ekonomisi için sahip olduğu yüksek önem, il bazında Denizli için de geçerlidir. Tekstil ve hazır giyim sektörü Denizli ekonomisinde yarattığı üretim kapasitesi, istihdam, katma değer ve ihracat potansiyeli açısından en önemli sektörlerden birisidir (Terzioğlu, 2008: 59-66). Denizli’de tekstil ve hazır giyim sanayinin hem il hem de ülke ekonomisine yüksek katkısı nedeniyle, tekstil ve hazır giyim sanayinde faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin markalaşma eğilimi çok önemlidir. Bu nedenle Denizli tekstil ve hazır giyim sektöründe faaliyet gösteren işletmelere anket uygulanmış ve 255 firmadan 106 tanesi ankete cevap vermiştir. Çalışmada işletmelerin ihracat performansını etkileyen geleneksel faktörlerin yanı sıra markalaşma eğilimlerinin etkisi de uygun ekonometrik tahmin yöntemleri ile araştırılacaktır. Beklentimiz markalaşma eğiliminin ihracat performansını olumlu yönde etkilediğidir. JEL codes: F10; O34
SAYGILI, Şeref (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası) CİHAN, Cengiz (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası) YALÇIN, Cihan (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası) HAMSİCİ, Türknur (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası) seref.saygili@tcmb.gov.tr Bu çalışma, Türkiye imalat sanayiinde ithal girdi kullanımını artıran faktörleri araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla, büyük ölçekli 145 firmaya uygulanan anket yoluyla firmaların ara ve yatırım malı ithalatına yönelmelerinin nedenleri incelenmiştir. Bu artışın iki temel kaynağı bulunmaktadır: Bunlar, (i) firmaların büyük bölümünün artan oranda ithal ara ve yatırım malı kullanması, ve(ii) sanayinin üretim yapısının ithal girdi kullanım oranı daha yüksek olan sektörler lehine değişmesidir. Birinci faktörle ilgili olarak, bazı temel ara ve yatırım mallarında yurt içi üretim miktarının yeterli düzeyde olmaması, Çin ve Hindistan gibi ülkelerden daha ucuza temin imkanı, dış ticaret rejimi (dahilde işleme rejimi ve Gümrük Birliği), döviz kurunun gelişimi, kaliteli ara ve yatırım malı kullanma ihtiyacı, küresel üretim ağları (dikey uzmanlaşma yapıları) ve yabancı sermayeli şirketlerin örgütlenme yapıları ile yurt dışı kredi imkanının firmaların ithalat kararlarını etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. İkinci faktöre yönelik olarak ise yeni uzmanlaşma yapısında öne çıkan (hızlı büyüyen) sektörlerde (motorlu kara taşıtları, diğer ulaşım araçları, elektrikli makine, ana metal gibi) ithal girdi kullanım oranlarının geleneksel emek-yoğun sektörlerden daha yüksek olduğu ve sektörel üretim yapısındaki değişimin sanayi genelinde ithal girdi kullanım oranını artırdığı ortaya konulmuştur. JEL codes: F14; L16 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 44 - Technological Change and Innovation Workshop 3 The Governance-Based Use and The Effects of Information Technologies on Public and Private Sector Institutions in The EU and Turkey ALTUN, Ayşen (Dumlupınar University) ATALAY, Ceren Giderler (Dumlupınar University)
The development process of information technologies separately affects public and private sector. The information technologies in public sector are used for internal organisation, working, operations, policy developing and implementing, monitoring-control and informing politicians, citizens and social organisations. While the use of information technologies in public sector ensures low cost, quality service to citizens and sustainable resource management for the administrative side; it ensures less time, effort and cost; higher satisfaction, more effective participation and more confidence for the citizens. With the start of the use of information technologies in private sector institutions, huge change and shift have been experienced in organisation structures and managerial mechanisms. In the private sector institutions, it influences quality policy and increases the efficiency in the use of internal resources. The high capacity data processing provided by information technologies creates considerable changes in private sector institutions in terms of management concept. The widespread use of information technologies in private sector affects and changes governance mechanism. In other words, the use of information technologies has created “governance” by changing managerial strategies. It has been effective in the proper implementation of “governance”. In the study, the ratio of the use of information technologies have been searched after examining the reasons of the use of information technologies in the EU and Turkey. Turkey’s position in this field among EU countries has been determined. Thereafter, it has been endeavoured to display the factors of managerial transformation of technologies. While the study continues with the examination of governance concept; it searches how the information technologies can be used in order to provide good governance, shows the difference of techniques and methods from which can be benefited for this purpose, analyzes the current situation of public and private sector in the EU and Turkey and makes suggestions within this framework. In the study, the radical transformative effects of information technologies have been separately examined for public sector and private sector. It has been endeavoured to analyse the situation in the EU countries and Turkey. While evaluating, current literature has been followed.
KARAASLAN, Mehmet Emin (Işık University) memin2@gmail.com This paper models a merger between two incumbent monopoly firms based on a specific incentive: the firms are considering adoption of product innovations in their product lines, but they realize a convergence in the underlying technology with the other product line. Specifically, one of the monopoly firms recognizes the opportunity created by technological developments which enable it not only to upgrade its own product but also to diversify into some other product line which is occupied by the other monopoly. Presumably, such an opportunity to diversify could be due to a breakthrough in the underlying technology which has been traditionally used in one of the industries, but now the new technology could also be used in another industry to produce sophisticated and upgraded versions of the products in that industry. Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Among the many examples are telecommunications convergence which is the converging of previously distinct media such as voice telephony and internet into common interfaces on single devices, computer networks, wherein many different operating systems are able to communicate via different protocols, and military technologies applied to civilian use. Information on the new technology is assumed to be common knowledge and accessible by both incumbents. I assume that, if a patent is pending on the technology, it is held by a third party and both incumbents can purchase a license to use it on equitable terms. First, the idea of technological convergence is motivated. Then, a game theoretical model to formalize and discuss the effects of technological competition and preemption among two incumbent monopoly firms in the absence of a merger is discussed. Finally, cases where the firms would have incentives for a product extensions merger, which raises the possibility of socially beneficial economies of divisional specialization in R&D through combined operations is characterized. While collusion to fix prices is a per se offense under antitrust laws in many countries, mergers are usually considered under the rule of reason (for example, antitrust laws in the USA) because integration of the firms\' facilities, operations and research programs may increase scale economies or specialization, and represent true resource savings. JEL codes: L13; L41 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 44 - Technological Change and Innovation Workshop 3 The Effect of Costs of Product and Process Innovation on Market Structure DONDURAN, Murat (Yıldız Technical University) ŞAHİN, Serçin (Yıldız Technical University)
Product and process innovations act with different characterstics of industries, in different ways. Therefore, it is likely to find different forms of relationships between market structure and innovation activities, in industries with different opportunities for process and product innovations. In this study, the effect of -one of the major determinants of incentives for product and process innovations- the costs of product and process innovations, on market structure will be investigated. In order to discover the nature of the dependence of this relationship on the costs of different types of innovation, an infinite horizon, discrete time, general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms invest in product and process R&D in a horizontally and vertically differentated industry will be constructed. Then the dependence of distribution of firms on the costs of product and process innovations will be computed numerically based on the framework of Hopenhayn (1992). JEL codes: L11; O31 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Contributed Session 44 - Technological Change and Innovation Workshop 3 R&D Activities, Innovation and Efficiency of R&D Process: A Case of Turkey TÖNGÜR, Ünal (Middle East Technical University) tongur@metu.edu.tr Technology potential is crucially important for economic growth and development. R&D activities can be addressed as an input for science and technology activities. The determination of firm characteristics concerning R&D and innovation can help policy-makers, especially in the context of support programs. This study is designed to find out the interrelations between R&D and innovation activities, and determinants of the efficiency of R&D process in Turkey by using stochastic frontier analysis. The sample used in the study randomly selected from the population includes all firms were supported by TUBITAK TEYDEB Industrial R&D Funding Program between 2002 and 2007. Within the scope of field research, a face to face questionnaire is filled out for 405 firms in 16 provinces as a powerful representative sample for all 1186 firms. The study also provides cross-relations in corresponding variables to the R&D activities and innovation on sectoral and regional basis. The firm level data used in this study is taken from the research project, called Innovation activities in Turkey in the age of science and technology, funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey. JEL codes: O32; C21 3 Eylül, Cuma Friday, September 3 Yüklə 1,42 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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