TüRKİye ekonomi kurumu

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Seçilmiş Oturum 4-Makroekonomik Politikalar: Türkiye Örneği Workshop 6

Türkiye'de Faliyette Bulunan Katılım Bankalarının Performans Analizi ve Ticari Bankalarla Karşılaştırılması

ERGEÇ, Etem Hakan (Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi)

ARSLAN, Bengül Gülümser (Anadolu Üniversitesi)

[e-mail]

Faizsiz bankacılık yapan katılım bankalarına ilişkin iktisat çalışmalarında farklı tartışma alanları bulunmaktadır. Katılım bankalarının teoride ticari bankacılıktan farklı olmasına karşın, pratikte ticari bankalardan farklı olup olmadıkları, bu tartışma alanlarından biridir. Faizsiz bankacılık sebebi ile faiz oranı dalgalanmalarına karşın daha istikrarlı olmaları sebebi ile finansal istikrara katkıda bulunup bulunmadıkları, kar zarar ortaklığı sebebi ile ticari bankalara kıyasla müşterileri takip için daha fazla efor harcama gerektikleri, müşterilerin de bankalarını, ticari bankalara kıyasala daha yakın takip ettikleri ve yine kar zarar ortaklığı sayesinde riskin paylaşılabilmesi ve dolayısıyla da daha riskli ve uzun vadeli projelere fon temin etmeleri ve bunu sonucu olarak da ekonomik kalkınmaya olumlu etkileri olması, çalışmalarda öne çıkan konular arasındadır. Bugün 50 den fazla ülkede örneğine rastladığımız katılım bankaları, 11 Eylülü takiben, büyüme hızı ivme kazanmış olan İslami finansal piyasaların temel aktörleridir. Birçok ülke de, ticari bankaların enstrümanları arasında, İslami finansal araçlar dahi yer almaktadır. Ülkemizde 1980 li yıllarda ilk olarak faaliyete başlayan katılım bankaları, 2005 yılından sonra ticari bankalarla aynı düzenlemelere tabi olmuşlardır. Bu gün faaliyetlerine devam etmekte olan, dört tane katılım bankası bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışma bu katılım bankalarının performanslarını; hem kendi içlerinde hem de özel sermayeli ticari bankalar ile karşılaştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Böylelikle dünya genelinde gelişen İslami finansal pazarlar içinde Türkiye’de bulunan katılım bankalarının başarı şansı değerlendirilebilinecektir

JEL kodları: G21, G20

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Seçilmiş Oturum 4-Makroekonomik Politikalar: Türkiye Örneği Workshop 6

Borcun Sürdürülebilirliğinin Toplumsal Etkileri: Başka Bir Sürdürülebilirlik Olgusu Ve Türkiye Örneği

GÜRBÜZ, Burak (Galatasaray Üniversitesi)

[e-mail]

Türkiye gibi küresel ekonomiye dâhil olmuş birçok gelişmekte olan ülkede borcun sürdürebilirliği konusu, ilgili ülkenin uluslararası piyasalardan yeniden borçlanması ve eski borçlarını ödeyebilmesi için önem kazanmaktadır. Dolayısıyla ülkelerin borcunun sürdürebilirliği piyasaların yakından takip ettikleri bir konu olmaktadır. Piyasalar için, bir yandan büyüme oranının borç faiz oranından daha yüksek olması, öte yandan kamu açığının ve cari işlemler açığının kapatılabilir olması yeterli sayılacaktır. Bu süreç daha genel olarak toplumsal açıdan ne gibi anlam ifade etmektedir? Bu konuda piyasaların sürdürebilirlik kıstasından farklı, toplumsal verileri de içine katan yeni bir sürdürebilirlik tanımından yola çıkan çalışmalar vardır. Bunlar, sürdürebilirlik konusuna salt birincil açıklar bağlamında bakmayan ama borç servisinin kamunun eğitim ve sağlık harcamalarındaki paylarındaki gelişmeyi de göz önünde tutan çalışmalardır. Bu kıstaslara göre borçları hesaplanan ülkeler çok borçludan az borçluya kadar sıralanmaktadır. Buna göre, piyasanın olumladığı bir borçlanma süreci, genel toplum açısından farklı bir şey ifade edebilmektedir. Başka bir deyişle, piyasaların sürdürebilir bulduğu ilgili ülkelerin borçları, yukarıdaki verileri göz önünde bulundurulduğunda sürdürülemez çıkabilmektedir (bkz: E. Berr, F. Combernous, “Une autre lecture de la soutenabilité de la dette”, Revue Tiers Monde, no:192, 2007). Çalışmamızda benzer bir yöntem Türkiye örneğinde geliştirilerek uygulanmış, ek olarak kamu harcamalarındaki dağılım, ve kamu bütçesinden sermaye lehine olan transferler de göz önünde bulundurulmuştur. Çalışmadan beklenen sonuçlar özellikle 80'li yıllardan günümüze ve dönemlere göre piyasanın öngörebildiğinin aksine Türkiye\'de borcun sürdürülemez oluşunu göstermektir.

JEL kodları: H63, O53

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Invited Session: Third World Network- The global Crisis and Recovery: Impact on and Policy Challenges for Asian Economies Consensus

The Global Economic Crisis and Asian Developing Countries: Impact, Policy Response and Medium-term Prospects
AKYÜZ, Yılmaz (South Center; UNCTAD)
This paper looks at the effects of the global economic crisis on the developing economies of Asia, their policy response to shocks and their medium-term growth prospects.

The global crisis has uncovered systemic and structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities in certain areas in the economies examined here and strengths in others. In almost all countries the financial sector has shown a significant degree of resilience to shocks from the global crisis. However, a common feature of the countries examined is their high degree of susceptibility to financial boom-bust cycles and gyrations in equity, property and currency markets. This crisis has shown the risks of full integration with markets in global financial centres and the need to adopt a strategic approach to financial opening and integration.

The crisis has also uncovered a high degree of vulnerability of the developing economies of East Asia to trade shocks, raising the question of whether the end of export-led growth has been reached. With unfavourable global economic conditions likely to persist, the paper underscores the need to reduce the dependence of the region on markets in advanced economies and to rebalance the domestic and external sources of growth.

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Invited Session, Third World Network- The global Crisis and Recovery: Impact on and Policy Challenges for Asian Economies Consensus

The Global Crisis and the Turkish Economy

UYGUR, Ercan (Ankara University; President, Turkish Economic Association)

After a period of relatively high and stable growth, the Turkish economy suffered a serious blow from the global crisis of 2008-09. This paper examines the extent to which the major macroeconomic indicators of growth, employment and inflation in Turkey have been affected by the worldwide downturn. The paper also looks at the main channels through which the crisis reached Turkish shores: external trade, capital flows, the banking sector and business confidence.

Assessing the Turkish authorities’ response to the crisis, the paper contends that there was a delay in taking fiscal and monetary policy action to counteract the effects of the global turmoil. The effectiveness of the measures that were eventually implemented has also varied, with further concerns arising over the burden imposed by the fiscal measures on the government budget.

In terms of the future outlook, the paper states that post-crisis adjustments in the global economy may put paid to Turkey’s prior reliance on foreign capital inflows to fuel growth. In any event, the crisis has amply exposed the dangers of dependence on volatile financial flows – a dependence which, in Turkey’s case, has also been detrimental to long-run competitiveness and employment generation. Consequently, the author suggests, Turkey should move away from this unsustainable growth strategy and, among other measures, consider instituting capital and exchange controls in the medium term.

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Invited Session: Third World Network- The global Crisis and Recovery: Impact on and Policy Challenges for Asian Economies Consensus

The Post-Crisis Changes in the Financial System in Korea: Problems of Neoliberal Restructuring and Financial Opening After 1997

LEE, Kang-Kook (Ritsumeikan University; Columbia University)

This paper looks at the structural changes in the South Korean financial system over the years and how they have influenced the course of development in one of East Asia’s largest economies.

For some 30 years from the early 1960s, a state-led financial system played a key role in propelling Korea’s rapid economic growth by allocating financial resources in line with the government’s industrial policy priorities. However, this system unravelled in the 1990s as the government implemented financial liberalization measures – measures which would give rise to financial fragility culminating in a severe financial crisis in 1997.

After the crisis, still more extensive financial sector deregulation and capital account liberalization were undertaken by the government as part of a sweeping neoliberal economic restructuring programme agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, this paper finds that Korea’s economic performance under this post-crisis market-oriented regime has been disappointing, characterized by stagnant growth and worsening poverty and income inequality. Especially marked is a decline in investment levels crucial to catalyzing long-run growth. The volatility of liberalized capital flows has also exposed the Korean economy to a heightened risk of financial shocks, as the recent turmoil triggered by the global financial crisis so vividly illustrates.

The Korean experience examined in this paper amply underscores the dangers of reckless financial liberalization and the consequent need to effectively regulate the financial system and exercise caution in relation to financial market-opening.

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Invited Session, Third World Network- The global Crisis and Recovery: Impact on and Policy Challenges for Asian Economies Consensus

Global Financial Crisis: Impact, Policy Response and Challenges for Malaysia and Singapore

MAH-HUI, Michael Lim (Social, Economic and Environment Institute – Penang) 

How to manage growth and financial stability in an increasing globalized economy is a key challenge facing emerging market countries. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has shown that both Malaysia and Singapore are increasingly integrated through trade and finance into the global economy after the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). However, the changes made after the AFC enabled these countries to better weather the GFC. The impact was felt primarily at the level of trade and equity markets. There was no crisis in the currency and financial sector as a whole. Both countries practice an intermediate foreign exchange rate regime, with Singapore using the basket, band and crawl to manage growth and financial stability. Malaysia is more prone to using physical controls in managing the impossible trinity. The crisis also exposed some basic structural weaknesses in the countries. Both are too dependent on exports especially to G3 countries for growth after the AFC. Domestic demand sector should be strengthened through better distributional policies in Singapore that has a high Gini coefficient, and through increased productivity and wage increases for Malaysia. Malaysia also has to understand major structural reforms to increase domestic and foreign investments that have plunged since the AFC and to strengthen its fiscal base. Singapore being financially strong should play a greater role in the regional integration of Asian markets.

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Invited Session, Third World Network- The global Crisis and Recovery: Impact on and Policy Challenges for Asian Economies Consensus

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Chinese Economy and China’s Policy Responses

YONGDING, Yu (Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

China, one of the world economy’s great growth success stories, was badly hit by the global financial crisis in 2008. While adverse impacts from investments in toxic financial assets and from volatility in capital flows were relatively limited, the Chinese economy suffered a serious blow from the collapse in demand for its exports.

In response to the growth slowdown, the Chinese authorities adopted expansionary fiscal and monetary policy measures, including a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package and deep interest rate cuts, which sparked an economic recovery in 2009. However, concerns about the longer-term sustainability of China’s growth persist, given the many structural problems in the economy. This paper argues the need for urgently addressing these flaws – which range from unequal income distribution to the lack of a social safety net – if China is to embark on a more sustainable growth path. Above all, the author stresses, there should be a rethink of the export- and investment-led growth model which has served China so well but which may now require adjustment.

The global financial turmoil has also highlighted another major challenge facing China: safeguarding its huge stock of foreign exchange reserves against capital losses caused by a declining US dollar. This paper explores the steps that can be taken by China towards this end, including diversification of its reserve holdings and, in the longer run, rebalancing of its balance of payments. In addition, the paper also makes the case for reform of the international monetary system to address one of the root causes of this “dollar trap” and, indeed, of the global financial crisis itself.


1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Contributed Session 5-Microeconomic Analysis I Workshop 3

Price Search, Consumption Inequality, and Expenditure Inequality over the Life Cycle

ARSLAN, Yavuz (Central Bank of Turkey)

TAŞKIN, Temel (University of Rochester)

[e-mail]

We investigate the effect of price search- as a partial insurance mechanism- on the life-cycle profile of consumption inequality. In general, incomplete market models ignore the role of price search as a partial insurance mechanism. However, Aguiar and Hurst (2007) show that lower income individuals search more for cheaper prices and pay lower prices to identical goods when compared to higher income individuals. Motivated by this fact, we incorporate price search into a life-cycle model.

We solve a life-cycle model with idiosyncratic income shocks, where we allow agents to search for prices in addition to the consumption/saving decision. As a result of idiosyncratic income shocks, people are ex-post heterogenous in terms of their income realizations and wealth accumulations. If agents search more they pay less but they receive less utility from leisure. Our results show that agents with low wealth and bad income shocks search more and pay less. These findings imply that the cross-sectional variance of consumption is smaller than cross-sectional variance of expenditure. A plausibly calibrated version of our model predicts that cross-sectional variance of log consumption is about 15% lower than cross-sectional variance of log expenditure. The model implies positive income, wealth and expenditure elasticities of price paid. We have a 0.15 elasticity of prices paid with respect to expenditure. People at higher expenditure levels pay higher prices. The estimated elasticity in the data changes in the range of 0.06 to 0.18 depending on the instrumental variable used. We use A.C. Nielsen Homescan data set to document the life-cycle profile of average prices paid by shoppers. Average prices paid stay almost constant from age 25 to 45. From age 45 to 55, prices paid decreases around 3 percent and afterwards stay constant. We use the profile of average prices over the life cycle to calibrate the utility function parameter which is important in search/leisure decision. The variance of log prices at age group 25-29 is about 0.005, and it goes up to 0.01 at age group 55-59. The increase in the cross-sectional variance of prices paid over the life cycle is consistent the with our findings. Expenditure facts have been documented and studied in several articles in the literature. This literature generally assumed that the model generated consumption decisions are represented with the expenditure data that are taken from the surveys. This paper argues that consumption and expenditure should be treated differently since expenditure is the multiplication of price paid and amount consumed. If consumers pay different prices for the same good then consumption will not be comparable to expenditure.

JEL codes: E21, E26

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Contributed Session 5- Microeconomic Analysis I Workshop 3

Estimation of Apartment Prices in Turkey: Regional Differences and Some Specification Issues

BAŞLEVENT, Cem (Istanbul Bilgi University)

ŞAHİNKAYA, Hande (Istanbul Bilgi University)

[e-mail]

Using data on the sales prices and structural characteristics of close to 9,000 housing units from around the country, we estimate several versions of a hedonic price model of the Turkish housing market. The sample is restricted to apartments, which are by far the most common type of housing in Turkey. The characteristics we control for include the surface area and the number of rooms of the apartment, as well as the age of the building it is located in. We also have some information on in-house amenities such as the type of heating and the presence of a balcony. The econometric models are estimated with both the sales price and the ‘price per square meter’ as the dependent variable using both linear and semi-logarithmic functional forms, and comparisons are made between the findings of these specifications. In addition to the full sample, the models are estimated using only the observations that come from Istanbul and the rest of the country as it turns out that parameter estimates differ considerably between the two subsamples. The examination of these differences suggests that they are likely to have to do with neighborhood characteristics that we were unable to control for.

JEL codes: C21, R21

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Contributed Session 5- Microeconomic Analysis I Workshop 3

The Deindustrialization of Istanbul

DOĞRUEL, Fatma (Marmara University)

DOĞRUEL, A. Suut (Marmara University)

[e-mail]

Istanbul was the capital city of Ottoman Empire over the four centuries. Hitherto, Istanbul has been also the cultural, commercial and industrial capital of the country. Historically, the other coastal provinces, namely Izmir (situated at the West side of the Aegean region) and Adana (situated at the eastern side of the Mediterranean region) and their hinterlands were other two important economic centers of the country. However, despite of their rich industrial cultures, the weights of Istanbul and Adana have declined gradually. Probably, some agglomeration effects play crucial role behind these changes. The decline in the share of Adana can be partly explained by the shifts of textile activities from Adana to other new emerging industrial centers. On the other hand, the decline in the share of Istanbul can be attributed to the deindustrialization policies implemented during last several decades. After 1980, not only new investments, replacement and modernization investments in the manufacturing sector promoted to move away from Istanbul to the eastern and western hinterlands.

In spite of the implementation of the deindustrialization policy, Istanbul still have largest share in the Turkish manufacturing sector. Considering the geographical proximity, in addition to direct effects on Istanbul, it is possible to expect that these policies may indirectly affect neighborhood regions. Employing the spatial statistical techniques, we analyze the growth of the manufacturing in Istanbul and its neighborhoods. The paper also focuses on the effects of the deindustrialization policy on the productivity and the firm size in Istanbul. The paper uses the manufacturing employment data of annual manufacturing surveys of TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute). The manufacturing sector classification is 3-digit ISIC Rev-2 (International Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities, Revision 2), and the regions are defined at NUTS2 level. In addition to Istanbul, as the neighborhood regions, we consider the old hinterland and the new industrial centers Bursa (TR41) and Kocaeli (TR42) in the east side of Istanbul. And, in the west side, Tekirdağ (TR21), which is still a hinterland region of Istanbul. The spatial statistics has number of tools to analyze the data. We use shift-share approach in order to decompose the manufacturing employment growth in Istanbul and its neighborhood for the period 1980-2000. The quantitative analysis will be extended to the period after 2000 under the restriction of data compatibility. The preliminary results show that the deindustrialization policies implemented in Istanbul region have considerable effects on the manufacturing sector. As the direct effect, these policies stimulate centrifugal forces in Istanbul: The share of this region in the Turkish manufacturing decreased. On the other hand, as the indirect effect, these policies provoked centripetal forces in the Bursa, Kocaeli and Tekirdag regions due to geographical proximity. The results also indicate the deindustrialization policies have significant effects on the industrial structure of Istanbul.

JEL codes: R12, O18

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Contributed Session 5- Microeconomic Analysis I Workshop 3

Survival Dynamics in Portugal, a Regional Perspective

NUNES, Alcina (Instituto Politecnico de Braçanga)

SARMENTO, Elsa (Universidade de Aveiro)

[e-mail]

This paper addresses the post-entry performance of firms for seven regions in Portugal, at the NUTS II level, by investigating the structural characteristics of survival, using non-parametric and semi-parametric methods, during the period 1985 to 2007. In order to approach the prevalence of some stylized facts and determinants of new firm survival, a new entrepreneurship database was produced following the application of the Eurostat/OECD methodology to Quadros de Pessoal. In the non parametric estimation, Kaplan-Meier survival functions and Nelson-Aalen hazard rates are used, while the semi-parametric estimation relates survival with seven explanatory variables and sector and year dummies. The main contribution of this work is the application of an internationally comparable methodology to a linked employer-employee dataset, which provides a regional overview of firm and survival dynamics over an extended period of time, while guaranteeing regional, national and international comparability.

JEL codes: C14, C41

1 Eylül, Çarşamba Wednesday, September 1

Contributed Session 6-Microeconomic Analysis II Workshop 4

Trust Game: Does Trust Create Trustworthiness

GAZİOĞLU, Şaziye (Middle East Technical University)

SAYAN, Hidayet (Middle East Technical University)

[e-mail]

In this paper we introduce a trust game and we test whether ‘trust’ begets ‘trustworthiness’. We designed a trust game with unknown number of rounds to the player, at the beginning of the game, which created cooperation and efficiency in the trust game. We compared the results of this investment game with the previous finding. We found that under the condition we imposed ‘trust creates trustworthiness We also investigate the gender discrimination in the trust game. Our findings suggest that the trust is higher in woman whereas trustworthiness is higher in man.

JEL codes: C71, C91