The objective of the project might be too ambitious and the support from the project resources and the government resources may not be adequate to initiate the changes required by the project strategy
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Medium
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Strategic
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Annual reviews will be conducted to assess the progress of the project and the adequacy of resources that are mobilized.
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The project worked with the key government institutions, particularly Turkmenhydromet, to identify additional resources for changes proposed by the project.
2013 – REDUCING. The Project continues to work very closely with relevant government agencies. Senior management of CO is fully in support of the project (45%)
2014-REDUCING.: The project introduced resource-saving technology (laser land levelling) at national level to mobilise resources from key government agencies responsible for water resources and agriculture development. (35%)
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Lack of relevant expertise and capacities in local market may result in delay of required outputs and distortion of targeted deadlines
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High
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Operational
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Implementation of project activities and recruitment of relevant national expertise is monitored and actions will be identified if the lack of expertise is affecting the timely implementation of the project. The project will engage with higher education establishments and technical institutes to identify suitable local experts. The project will explore a mobile CRM information service to ensure high quality provision at Velayat level.
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N/a in 2012.
2013 – Risk is still VALID. Despite extensive capacity building programme implemented by the Project and other interventions, local expertise is still rather weak. Experts with good technical background and knowledge are not abundant. This has already caused delays with deployment of local consultants (20%).
2014 - Risk is still VALID. Some activities of CRM project were implemented by local consultants who deployed for Adaptation fund project. (17%)
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The government is not committed to implement institutional and policy changes proposed during the implementation of the project
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Medium
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Regulatory
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The project team will closely monitor the developments. The related institution(s) will be contacted early on to establish a partnership with the project and involved into designing of policies.
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The project worked with the key government institutions, particularly Turkmenhydromet, to identify the national partner, which will assist in implementing project activities.
2013 – REDUCING. There are attempts that the government is becoming engaged into project activities. High level government officials meeting with CO and CA-CRM staff were conducted to discuss and engage in Project activities (21%).
2014 – REDUCING In this stage the project organised a number of assignment meetings focused on mainstreaming climate change into national policies and development plans, and developed recommendations on improving regulatory, legal and institutional frameworks for key stakeholders. (18%)
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Project successes are not maintained after the project, and are not replicated to other sites.
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Medium
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Organizational
Strategic
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The project strategy focuses on (i) developing realistic policies based on grass-roots experience; (ii) working with the existing UNDP Communities Programme; and (iii) ensuring there are economic benefits. Together, these elements should ensure the sustainability and replicability of the project successes.
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The project is planned activities has been cooperating with Adaptation Fund project in 3 agro-regions which are typical in Turkmenistan to ensure pilots uptake and replication of successful experiences
2013 – REDUCING: Project interventions involve national experts, who are likely to be able to replicate successful experience elsewhere in Turkmenistan. (22%)
2014 - REDUCING: The close cooperation with the AF Project and local farmers enables to sustain joint and supplementary CRM measures by implementing best experiences on a large-scale and facilitating adaptation practices on laser land levelling and soil testing across the pilot regions. (8%)
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CRM information is of poor quality and difficult to use, which may reduce its usefulness for local communities
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Medium
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Operational
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The project will engage directly with Turkmenhydromet under Action 1.2 to ensure quality and usability of information is suitable for wider dissemination. Local information and outputs from consultations will be quality monitored.
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The project started addressing this risk by initiating discussion with Turkmenhydromet on needs to improve quality of information.
2013 – This Risk is still VALID: The project has not worked yet with information provided by Turkmenhydromet. (40 %)
2014 - This Risk is still VALID: The Project requests of 2013 are still pending. (40 %)
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Local experts do not see the National Climate Network as an attractive proposition and do not participate in project
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Medium
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Operational
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The NCN will be designed to meet local expectations and expert requirements following a stakeholder consultation. Experts will be engaged where appropriate as local consultations in implementation of project activities.
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The project has been reviewing local expert proposals for creating the local networking for CRM.
2013 – Risk is still VALID. Local experts are reluctant to become a part of MCN/NCN. The project is working with them to show the benefits to be a part of a CA climate network (30 %).
2014– MITIGATED. The project has established close links with NCN members participated in national and regional events. e.g. CRA workshops, WOCAT, drought management, etc. (16%)
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National government does not give permission for data sharing and cooperation between institutions and at the local level
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Medium
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Operational
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The project will be agreed at a high level with the Cabinet of Ministers, with permissions sought for cooperation with the necessary ministries and state bodies. State committees will be used as key elements of the project steering committee. Permission to engage with local communities will be sought from relevant ministries and bodies.
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The project worked with the key national partners through the Cabinet of Ministers.
2013 – Risk is still VALID (40 %). The requested data was not provided during the assignment on climate risk assessment.
2014- Risk is still VALID. During CRA workshops data from line ministries and agencies was received through participatory approach and exercise. (33%)
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Lack of knowledge of community level CRM needs
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Medium
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Operational
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The project will undertake local level climate risk mapping using an agreed methodology. The project will engage directly with local communities using local research and questionnaires to understand climate risk information needs and to identify potential projects.
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The project has initiated local level risk assessment for 2013. The project is planning to work in close cooperation with Adaptation Fund in 3 pilot sites to implement project activities.
2013 – Risk is REDUCING. The project established cooperation with AF Project and local NGOs who are in the network using its local networking for expanding the project ideas (20%)
2014 – REDUCING Based on outcomes of climate risk assessment and local community needs, CRM project implemented the prioritized training activities and adaptation measures with active participation of project beneficiaries. (13%)
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Lack of finance to provide CRM information and implement CRM measures at a local level
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Medium
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Financial
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The project will lobby GoT to direct budgetary funds towards CRM type activities. The project will separately make application to international adaptation and climate risk funding sources to support implementation of pilot projects.
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The project directly contributed to mobilization of US$ cca 3 mln. from Adaptation Fund for local adaptation in Turkmenistan.
2013 – Risk is still VALID. At the moment CRM measures are implemented by CRM and AF projects. Both project teams work very closely with local level organisations and individuals to promote the need for financing CRM and reducing corresponding risks of climate-related natural disasters and other climate change impacts (20%).
2014 - Risk is still VALID. Despite the project closure, AF Project beneficiaries will also benefit from application of CRM portable soil lab for soil testing, garden tool sets for orchard management and use of laser equipment for land levelling. (15%)
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Work in more remote local communities presents logistical organization challenges and makes project oversight difficult
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Medium
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Organizational
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Sites will be selected on the basis of not only risk, but also on capacity to engage with project, and experience of participation in previous donor activities. Budget is reserved for travel and logistics. Local project representatives and consultants will be engaged.
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This risk was not relevant in 2012 as activities were not conducted at local level.
2013 – MITIGATED: Climate Risk Mapping has been conducted in three target pilot regions, communities and preliminary project ideas were identified based on the conducted survey (5%).
2014 - MITIGATED: Local coordinators together with communities of pilot areas rendered great help in project activities implementation. (1%)
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National climate monitoring network and technical capacity at Turkmenhydromet is weak, and investments in upgrade are expensive and long term
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Medium
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Operational
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The project will focus more on improving the usability of existing information, than upgrading the existing technical network.
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This risk did not affect project implementation in 2012.
2013 – MITIGATED: The Project supports a number of activities to strengthen Turkmenhydromet's capacity. These include but not limited to providing capacity building exercises, supporting their participation in the workshops (e.g. Drought Management, Tashkent) (40%).
2014 - MITIGATED: The Project increased capacity of Turkmenhydromet staff through national and regional events focused on cooperation, sharing expertise and information delivery. For instance, an expert meeting with Kazhydromet, national consultations. (20%)
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