~ 9 ~
and poverty
reduction, it currently has one of the highest population
growth rates in the world, driven
by its unique demographic
momentum. will be preserved for some time. The effects of population
growth on per capita economic growth and poverty were examined
using
aggregated data, combining macro and microeconomic
approaches. Theoretical considerations and strong empirical evidence
suggest that the current high population growth significantly reduces
Uganda's per capita growth prospects. It also contributes significantly
to poor poverty reduction achievements and is associated with
persistent household poverty and the transition into poverty. This is
likely to lead to significant improvements in poverty reduction and per
capita growth."
it is stated that
After decades of stagnation and recession, Uganda has enjoyed
relatively high per capita economic growth since the late 1980s. A return
to
peace and stability, significant economic and institutional reforms,
and substantial foreign aid are the most important factors in this
improvement. Sustained per capita growth has also led to a significant
reduction
in poverty, from 56 percent in 1992 to 39 percent in 2002
(Appleton and Ssewanyana, 2003). However, per capita growth has
slowed recently and poverty reduction has stalled. The question to be
addressed in this paper is to what extent the very high (and increasing)
population growth rate has been (and will be) a constraint on per capita
economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda. ).
Population
dynamics and economic growth Although Uganda may fall into the
Malthusian trap of population growth, growth theory suggests that high
population growth will have a serious negative impact on Uganda's
economic growth per capita. 'secret shows. In the simplest growth
model, the Harrod-Domar model, which assumes a production function
with a fixed ratio of factors and constant
marginal revenue for each
factor, a one percent increase in population growth leads to a per capita
economic growth of one percent. reduces by a percentage point.
In a particular parameterization of the model presented by
Mankiw, Roemer, and Weil (1992) (using the production function of the
Cobb-Douglas economy), a population growth rate of 10% (e.g., 3% to
3.3 %) will decrease the per capita income by 5% in a steady state.
Conversely, if Uganda reduced its population growth rate to 10 percent
(from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent), it could expect to increase per capita
income by 20 percent in the long run (which countries are expected to
be stable countries called). approaching in 30 years or so) and it
immediately embarks on an upward path of economic growth per capita
to reach a sustainable level of per capita income.
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