W w w. H a m I l t o n p r o j e c t. O r g acknowledgements

The Hamilton Project  •  Brookings   3

CHAPTER 1:

 The Landscape of   

Crime in the United States

Crime rates in the United States have been on a steady decline since the 1990s. Despite this 

improvement, particular demographic groups still exhibit high rates of criminal activity while 

others remain especially likely to be victims of crime.

1.  Crime rates have steadily declined over the past twenty-five years.

2. Low-income individuals are more likely than higher-income 

individuals to be victims of crime.

3.  The majority of criminal offenders are younger than age thirty.

4.  Disadvantaged youths engage in riskier criminal behavior.

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4  

Ten Economic Facts about Crime and Incarceration in the United States

approximately 14 percent. During this same decade, sentencing 

policies grew stricter and the U.S. prison population swelled, 

which had both deterrence (i.e., prevention of further crime by 

increasing the threat of punishment) and incapacitation (i.e., the 

inability to commit a crime because of being imprisoned) effects 

on criminals (Abrams 2011; Johnson and Raphael 2012; Levitt 

2004). The waning of the crack epidemic reduced crime primarily 

through a decline in the homicide rates associated with crack 

markets in the late 1980s.

Though crime rates have fallen, they remain an important policy 

issue. In particular, some communities, often those with low-

income residents, still experience elevated rates of certain types of 

crime despite the national decline.

Crime rates have steadily declined over the past 

twenty-five years.

After a significant explosion in crime rates between the 1960s and 

the 1980s, the United States has experienced a steady decline in crime 

rates over the past twenty-five years. As illustrated in figure 1, crime 

rates fell nearly 30 percent between 1991 and 2001, and subsequently 

fell an additional 22 percent between 2001 and 2012. This measure, 

calculated by the FBI, incorporates both violent crimes (e.g., murder 

and aggravated assault) and property crimes (e.g., burglary and 

larceny-theft). Individually, rates of property and violent crime have 

followed similar trends, falling 29 percent and 33 percent, respectively, 

between 1991 and 2001 (U.S. Department of Justice [DOJ] 2010b).

Social scientists have struggled to provide adequate explanations 

for the sharp and persistent decline in crime rates. Economists 

have focused on a few potential factors—including an increased 

number of police on the streets, rising rates of incarceration, and 

the waning of the crack epidemic—to explain the drop in crime 

(Levitt 2004). In the 1990s, police officers per capita increased by 

1.

Chapter 1: The Landscape of Crime in the United States

FIGURE 1.

Crime Rate in the United States, 1960–2012

After being particularly elevated during the 1970s and 1980s, the crime rate fell nearly 45 percent between 1990 and 2012.

Sources: DOJ 2010b; authors’ calculations.

Note: The crime rate includes all violent crimes (i.e., aggravated assault, forcible rape, murder, and robbery) and property crimes (i.e., burglary, larceny-theft, 

and motor vehicle theft).

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Crime r

at

e per 100,000 r

esiden

ts

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The Hamilton Project  •  Brookings   5

of poverty—suggests that moving into a less-poor neighborhood 

significantly reduces child criminal victimization rates. In 

particular, children of families that moved as a result of receiving 

both a housing voucher to move to a new location and counseling 

assistance experienced personal crime victimization rates that 

were 13 percentage points lower than those who did not receive any 

voucher or assistance (Katz, Kling, and Liebman 2000).

Victims of personal crimes face both tangible costs, including 

medical costs, lost earnings, and costs related to victim assistance 

programs, and intangible costs, such as pain, suffering, and lost 

quality of life (Miller, Cohen, and Wiersama 1996). There are 

also public health consequences to crime victimization. Since 

homicide rates are so high for young African American men, men 

in this demographic group lose more years of life before age sixty-

five to homicide than they do to heart disease, which is the nation’s 

overall leading killer (Heller et al. 2013).

Across all types of personal crimes, victimization rates are 

significantly higher for individuals living in low-income households, 

as shown in figure 2. In 2008, the latest year for which data are 

available, the victimization rate for all personal crimes among 

individuals with family incomes of less than $15,000 was over three 

times the rate of those with family incomes of $75,000 or more 

(DOJ 2010a). The most prevalent crime for low-income victims was 

assault, followed closely by acts of attempted violence, at 33 victims 

and 28 victims per 1,000 residents, respectively. For those in the 

higher-income bracket, these rates were significantly lower at only 

11 victims and 9 victims per 1,000 residents, respectively.

Because crime tends to concentrate in disadvantaged areas, low-

income individuals living in these communities are even more likely 

to be victims. Notably, evidence from the Moving to Opportunity 

program—a multiyear federal research demonstration project that 

combined rental assistance with housing counseling to help families 

with very low incomes move from areas with a high concentration 

Low-income individuals are more likely than 

higher-income individuals to be victims of 

crime.

2.

Chapter 1: The Landscape of Crime in the United States

Sources: DOJ 2010a; authors’ calculations.

Note: The victimization rate is defined as the number of individuals who were victims of crime over a six-month period per every 1,000 persons age twelve or older.

FIGURE 2.

Victimization Rates for Persons Age 12 or Older, by Type of Crime and Annual Family 

Income, 2008

In 2008, individuals with annual family incomes of less than $15,000 were at least three times more likely to be victims of personal 

crimes—such as rape and assault—than were individuals with annual family incomes of $75,000 or more.

Vic

timiza

tion r

at

e per 1,000 persons

Completed violence

Attempted violence

Rape/sexual assault

Robbery

Assault

$0–$14,999

$15,000–$34,999

$35,000–$74,999

$75,000 or more

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

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