W w w. H a m I l t o n p r o j e c t. O r g acknowledgements



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The Hamilton Project  •  Brookings   17

(both prison and jail) by the U.S. resident population on 

January 1 of the following year taken from Census Bureau 

(2001). Estimates of the total incarcerated population come 

from personal communication with E. Ann Carson, Bureau 

of Justice Statistics, January 24, 2014. This quotient is then 

multiplied by 100,000 in order to get the incarceration 

rate per 100,000 residents. Incarceration rates for 2000 to 

2006 come from Sabol, Couture, and Harrison (2007). The 

incarceration rate for 2007 comes from Sabol, West, and 

Cooper (2010). The incarceration rate for 2008 comes from 

Glaze (2010). Incarceration rates for 2009 and 2010 come 

from Glaze (2011). Incarceration rates for 2011 and 2012 

come from Glaze and Herberman (2013).

Dates for the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 and the Anti-

Drug Abuse Act of 1986 come from Raphael and Stoll (2013). 

The number of states that adopted or strengthened the “three 

strikes” legislation between 1993 and 1997 come from Austin 

and colleagues (2000). The three events highlighted in the 

figure are examples of the many policy changes that are 

believed to have influenced the incarceration rate since the 

1980s.


6. The U.S. incarceration rate is more than six times 

that of the typical OECD nation.

Figure 6. Incarceration Rates in OECD Countries

Sources: Glaze and Herberman 2013; Walmsley 2013; authors’ 

calculations.

Note: The typical Organisation for Economic Co-Operation 

and Development (OECD) incarceration rate refers to the 

median incarceration rate among all OECD nations.  The 

incarceration rate for the United States comes from Glaze 

and Herberman (2013). Data for all other OECD nations 

come from Walmsley (2013). All incarceration rates are 

for 2013, with the exception of Canada, Greece, Israel, 

the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United 

States. Of these countries, all rates are for 2012, with the 

exception of Canada, whose rate is from 2011 to 2012. The 

incarceration rate for the United Kingdom is a weighted 

average of the prison population rates of England and Wales, 

Northern Ireland, and Scotland based on their estimated 

national populations. The incarceration rate for France 

includes metropolitan France and excludes departments and 

territories in Africa, the Americas, and Oceania.

7. There is nearly a 70 percent chance that an African 

American man without a high school diploma will be 

imprisoned by his mid-thirties.

Figure 7. Cumulative Risk of Imprisonment by Age 30–34 

for Men Born Between 1945–49 and 1975–79, by Race and 

Education

Source: Western and Wildeman 2009.

Note: In this figure, imprisonment is defined as a sentence 

of twelve months or longer for a felony conviction. The 

cumulative risk of imprisonment for men is calculated 

using life table methods, and requires age-specific first-

incarceration rates. Though this cumulative risk is 

technically the likelihood of going to jail or prison by age 

thirty to thirty-four, these estimates roughly describe 

lifetime risks because most inmates enter prison for the first 

time before age thirty-five. For more details, see Pettit and 

Western (2004).



8. Per capita expenditures on corrections more than 

tripled over the past thirty years.

Figure 8. Total Corrections Expenditures by Level of 

Government and Per Capita Expenditures, 1980–2010

Sources: Bauer 2003a, 2003b; Census Bureau 2001, 2011, 

2013; Gifford 2001; Hughes 2006, 2007; Hughes and Perry 

2005; Perry 2005, 2008; Kyckelhahn 2012a, 2012b, 2012c; 

Kyckelhahn and Martin 2013; authors’ calculations.

Note: Total corrections expenditures by type of government 

come from the Department of Justice’s (DOJ’s) annual 

Justice Expenditures and Employment Extracts. Only direct 

expenditures are included so as to not double count the 

value of intergovernmental grants. Expenditure figures are 

adjusted to 2010 dollars using the CPI-U-RS. Estimates of the 

U.S. resident population are the Census Bureau’s population 

estimates for July of that year. Per capita expenditures are then 

calculated by dividing the total corrections expenditures by 

the resident population in that year.



18   Ten Economic Facts about Crime and Incarceration in the United States

9. By their fourteenth birthday, African American 

children whose fathers do not have a high school 

diploma are more likely than not to see their fathers 

incarcerated.

Figure 9. Cumulative Risk of Parent’s Imprisonment for 

Children by Age 14, by Race and Parent’s Education

Source: Wildeman 2009.

Note: Children included in the figure were born in 1990. 

The cumulative risk of parental imprisonment for children 

by the time they turn fourteen is calculated using life table 

methods, and relies on the number of children experiencing 

parental imprisonment for the first time at any age. Original 

analysis was performed using three data sets: the “Surveys 

of Inmates of State and Federal Correctional Facilities,” the 

year-end counts of prisoners, and the National Corrections 

Reporting Program. For more details, see Wildeman (2009).

10. Juvenile incarceration can have lasting impacts on 

a young person’s future.

Figure 10. Effect of Juvenile Incarceration on Likelihood of 

High School Graduation and Adult Imprisonment

Source: Aizer and Doyle 2013.

Note: Bars show statistically significant regression estimates 

(at the 5 percent significance level) of the causal effect of 

juvenile incarceration on high school completion and on 

adult recidivism. The sample includes all juveniles charged 

with a crime and brought before juvenile court, though not 

necessarily all were subsequently incarcerated. The analysis 

includes a vector of community x weapons-offense x year-

of-offense fixed effects, uses randomly assigned judges as 

an instrumental variable, and controls for demographic 

characteristics as well as for court variables. The regression 

results for homicide and drug crimes are not included in the 

figure since they are statistically insignificant at the 5 percent 

significance level. For more details, see Aizer and Doyle (2013).



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