8
Such strong fluctuations in Pf depends on inadequate storage facilities (at the family and
collective level) which forces households to sell at a low price part of their produce after the
harvest to avoid losing a significant proportion of the harvest (up to one third) to pests and
decay. A second reason for selling part of the output immediately after the harvest is to repay
debts contracted during the hunger season to buy food (at high prices), pay school and
hospital fees, religious ceremonies, etc (Hauenstein et al. 2009). Lack of access to formal (non-
usury) credit forces small farmers to sell at low prices to get the necessary cash they need for
the above purposes. Improvements in storage capacity and the promotion of cereal banks
would reduce crop sales after the harvest, smooth the food price seasonality, and reduce the
small famer’s dependence on costly food purchases during the hunger season. In addition, a
minimum of credit would permit the farmer to avoid buying food at high prices – de facto
forfeiting part of her/his real income – and preserving therefore part of the harvest for sale
during the period of higher prices.
The possibility to receive some form of seasonal transfer
h
T
(e.g. in the form of food/cash for
work or remittances from seasonal migrants). In India, for instance the Employment
Guarantee Scheme ensures 4 months of employment in public work schemes (or cash
subsidy if no such programs are available within a radius of 20 Km from the residence of the
household). While growing in number, such programs are few and far between in most SSA.
Extreme short term food price changes during food crises/famines
Poor SSA countries are often hit by sudden and acute price increases due to climatic factors,
sharp changes in food imports/exports, rising market inefficiency and speculation. During
these periods, food security and malnutrition can be affected by:
-Large year-to-year drops in food output for self-consumption
h
Qfsc
, due to climatic shocks;
- An increase in
Pf
due to a constant food production for self consumption
h
Qfsc
,
accompanied by a decline in food imports or an increase in exports (caused, among others,
by changes in exchange rates and cross-border prices);
- An increase in
Pf
due to a constant food production for self consumption
h
Qfsc
,
accompanied by hoarding by food traders who anticipate increases in future food prices;
- A rapid erosion in the prices of
Pj
(and possibly quantities produced Q
j
) and in the wage
rate and labor demand
(
)
Pw
Qw
h
relative to
Pf
;
- A drop/ insufficient rise in public and private transfers
Pf
T
h
due to inadequate policy
responses,
- The limited resources obtained from the sale of assets
h
A
∆
(land, livestock, tools, jewels)
which aims at offsetting the decline in production, exchange and labor entitlements. ‘Distress
sales‘ of household assets during food crises generally provide a limited respite to
households’ short term nutritional problems, while they can affect their long term nutritional
status whenever the assets divested are used to produce food or other goods.
The extent to which higher food prices translate into higher malnutrition rates in the short
term depends on a series of factors. The majority of Sub Saharan farmers (and all of the non-
9
farmers) is net food buyers during 4-5 months a year (Ravallion 1989, Christiaensen & Demery
(2006), Seshan and Umali-Deininger, 2007; Byerlee, Myers & Jayne 2006; Ivanic & Martin 2008,
Hauenstein Swan et al. 20098). Under these conditions, a sudden rise in the price of staples,
as observed during sudden food crises, translates immediately in a reduction of food
consumption (Oxfam & Save the Children 2008)
9
. The impact is greatest among the poorest
families who spend 60-75 percent of their income on food and are therefore less able than
middle income families to substitute non-food for food consumption. Increases in food prices
will not be so destructive as long as they are accompanied by a rise in the price of other
crops, livestock and agricultural wages. However, the literature shows that rural and urban
wages will generally increase at a slower pace than food prices or even fall (Rashid 2002; Walt
2008). Evidence from Ethiopia, for instance, suggests that a rise in other incomes could be
nullified by the soaring cost of the main staple food (Hauenstein et al. 2009)
10
.
Interactions between long term, seasonal and crisis food security
While they show different dynamics and need different policy responses, these three types of
changes in food prices influence each other and child malnutrition in the following ways:
- failure of improving long term food security via supply-side policies aiming at increasing
land yields and food production per capita and at raising the incomes of all social groups lead
to a situation of persistently fragile food security and high levels of chronic malnutrition
which – together with a limited access to basic health services – exposes chronically
malnourished children to a high risk of wasting and death during the hunger months and
food crises;
- in turn, during the lean season households are frequently forced to gamble their future
welfare to live today, which often has serious repercussions for the ability to increase food
production over the medium term. When faced with seasonal food price increases, poor
families almost universally react by restricting the quality and, later, the quantity of food
consumed. Maintaining staple food consumption at the expense of micronutrients-dense
foods, like eggs, meat or milk, can result in micronutrient deficiencies, a weakened immune
system and, if prolonged, weight loss, causing malnutrition rates to rise. Seasonal hunger is a
main cause of a high chronic incidence of child stunting and low weight, which do affect the
long term learning capacity of children, their human capital formation and future
productivity. In addition, in bad years seasonal hunger becomes the ‘father of famine’ as the
seasonal price fluctuations are amplified not only by a given shock but also by lack of
programmatic responses to deal with the seasonal food price fluctuations. It is this
debilitating and neglected downward spiral of seasonal suffering that preceded the food
crises of Malawi in 2001/02 and Niger in 2005 (see section 6).
- an inadequate public handling of food crises/famines affects in turn the households’ food
security and ability to increase food production over the medium-long term. Indeed, as food
8
Notably, Aksoy & Isik-Dikmelik, (2008) suggest that the ‘marginal’ rural net food buyers (i.e. those who only
enter the market to ‘top up’ their food supplies above their own subsistence stocks) are little affected by price
changes. However, in the case of landlocked sub Saharan counties such as Niger and Malawi, the majority of the
population is dependent on market purchases during 4-5 months a year to satisfy their food requirements.
9
For example, Oxfam and Save the Children 2008 predicted a reduction in food consumption of 17 percent
between January and March 2008 if millet price rose from 200 to FCFA 300 per kg.
10
Despite considerable increase in their prices, in 2008 coffee, an oxen and a day agricultural wage respectively
purchased in , in 2008 3, 23 and 24 percent less maize than in 2007 (Hauenstein et al. 2009).