17th century France: land, labour, produce

17th century France: land, labour, produce

• 17th century France: land, labour, produce

• 18th century Britain: explanation of growing trade and the industrial revolution, starting with Adam Smith’s ‘Wealth of Nations’

• Specialisation leads to productivity gains
• ‘Invisible hand’ – equilibrium arising from self-interested striving of millions of people
• Theory of markets and value extended to labour and capital too

• 19th century ‘marginalist revolution’ made all this rigorous leading to Marshallian synthesis

Late 19th century: Marx’s theories of poverty, oppression and inevitable revolution

• Late 19th century: Marx’s theories of poverty, oppression and inevitable revolution

• Monopoly as the big problem: antitrust law

• 1930s: persistent unemployment of the Great Depression

• 1970s: how to explain and cope with inflation

• 1970s/80s: asymmetric information

• 1990s: other factors in IT goods/services markets

• Now: huge diversity of subjects (healthcare, insurance, security, environment …) but a core of common tools and concepts

Economics as a subject is traditionally made up of macroeconomics, microeconomics and specialised topics

• Economics as a subject is traditionally made up of macroeconomics, microeconomics and specialised topics

• ‘Macro’ is about the performance and structure of the global economy or a nation or region. It’s about models of employment, inflation, growth, investment, savings, credit, exchange rates, GNP…

• We will touch on this only briefly

‘Micro’ is about how individuals and firms react to incentives, how market mechanisms establish prices, and the circumstances in which markets can fail

• ‘Micro’ is about how individuals and firms react to incentives, how market mechanisms establish prices, and the circumstances in which markets can fail

• Special topics of interest to computer scientists & engineers include the economics of information, the economics of dependability, and behavioural economics (where econics meets psychology)

• Our tools range from mathematical models to empirical social science

Example of a model of how incentives work: George Akerlof “The Market for Lemons”

• Example of a model of how incentives work: George Akerlof “The Market for Lemons”

• 100 used cars on the market in a town: 50 ‘plums’ worth $2000 and 50 ‘lemons’ worth $1000
• Only the sellers know which is which
• What’s the equilibrium price?

• Many wider implications: why old people can’t get affordable insurance, why bad security products drive out good ones, why Cambridge degrees are valuable …

Todd Kendall, “Pornography, rape and the Internet” (2007)

• Todd Kendall, “Pornography, rape and the Internet” (2007)

• Internet uptake went at different speeds in different US states
• What crimes were correlated?
• Rape and prostitution went down, while ‘runaways’ went up
• The first two had significance concentrated among 15-24yo males

• For more examples of this, see “Freakonomics”

As an introduction to theories of prices, consumers and markets, consider an idealised market for flats in Cambridge

• As an introduction to theories of prices, consumers and markets, consider an idealised market for flats in Cambridge

• Assume only two types – one-bed flats in town, or house-shares in Chesterton. People who can afford flats will rent them, and those who can’t will get house-shares instead

• Assume that there are 1000 flats to rent, and that people vary in their ability / willingness to pay

So there might be 1 person prepared to pay £2000, 300 prepared to pay £1000, 1000 prepared to pay £500…

• So there might be 1 person prepared to pay £2000, 300 prepared to pay £1000, 1000 prepared to pay £500…

• With 1000 flats to let, the market equilibrium price p* is where the supply and demand curves cross, i.e. £500

If the market is rigged, might restrict supply – 800 flats at £700 pm can earn more than 1000 at £500 pm

• If the market is rigged, might restrict supply – 800 flats at £700 pm can earn more than 1000 at £500 pm

• Intuitively, this is inefficient! (empty flats which people would pay to rent)

• How can we formalise this?

A monopolist might leave some flats empty despite there being people who’d pay for them

• A monopolist might leave some flats empty despite there being people who’d pay for them

• Definitions

• A Pareto improvement is a way to make some people better off without making anyone worse off
• A Pareto efficient allocation is such that no Pareto improvement is possible

• This is weak: pure monarchy and pure communism are both Pareto efficient!

• Anyway, is there any way for the monopolist to find a Pareto efficient allocation?

If you know what everyone can pay, charge them just that!

• If you know what everyone can pay, charge them just that!

• This arrangement is Pareto efficient!

• The monopolist captures all the consumer surplus …

Consumer surplus is the total amount people saved on their reservation price

• Consumer surplus is the total amount people saved on their reservation price

• Ordinary monopoly: green area left to consumers

• The monopolist diminished surplus by A and B

• The discriminating monopolist gets the lot!

Monopolies are common in the information goods and services industries

• Monopolies are common in the information goods and services industries

• We’ll study why in some detail later

• For now, monopolists have a strong incentive to price discriminate so as to mop up all the available surplus

• Hence the many prices of Vista!

• But it’s not just tech. Think airline tickets, cars, and even food.

• So what factors determine the structure of markets?

Examines mechanisms of choice

• Examines mechanisms of choice

• Consumers choose ‘best’ bundle of goods they can afford

• Most of the time, two goods are enough – say books versus everything else

• Assuming a budget constraint m, p1x1 + p2x2 ≤ m

• This gives a line on which choices must lie

We draw ‘indifference curves’ or ‘isoquants’ joining mutually indifferent points – that is, where the consumer prefers bundle (x1, x2) equally to (y1, y2)

• We draw ‘indifference curves’ or ‘isoquants’ joining mutually indifferent points – that is, where the consumer prefers bundle (x1, x2) equally to (y1, y2)

• We assume they’re well behaved – the curves don’t cross. I.e. if (x1, x2) is preferred when (y1, y2) is affordable, then when (y1, y2) is preferred, (x1, x2) is not affordable (the ‘weak axiom of revealed preference’)

Sometimes I just don’t care at all whether I have good 1 or good 2

• Sometimes I just don’t care at all whether I have good 1 or good 2

• E.g.: Tesco’s sugar or Sainsbury’s sugar

• Such goods are called substitutes

Sometimes I want exactly the same quantity of good 1 and good 2

• Sometimes I want exactly the same quantity of good 1 and good 2

• E.g. left shoes and right shoes

• Such goods are called complements

There are some goods I’d rather avoid!

• There are some goods I’d rather avoid!

• But sometimes I have to consume some of a bad in order to enjoy some of a good

The tangent to an isoquant gives the marginal rate of substitution (MRS)

• The tangent to an isoquant gives the marginal rate of substitution (MRS)

• This is the exchange rate at which the consumer will trade the two: MRS = x1/x2

• Comvex curves: you’re more likely to trade the good if you have more of it

The more you have of x1 relative to x2, the more likely you are to trade x1 for x2, in the strictly convex case

• The more you have of x1 relative to x2, the more likely you are to trade x1 for x2, in the strictly convex case

• I.e. you become less willing to pay for ‘one more’

Often indifference curves can be parametrised

• Often indifference curves can be parametrised

• Marginal utility MU1 = dU/dx1

• Then MRS = -MU1/MU2

• Utility functions can be useful for describing consumer choices

• They can often be inferred from shopping behaviour, and answer questions about the value of better / faster / …

Commonly used: U(x1, x2) = x1cx2d

• Commonly used: U(x1, x2) = x1cx2d

• If the utility is believed to depend on a number of observed factors, take logarithms and look for a fit

Until 1871, no-one had a good theory of supply and demand. Why are essentials like water cheap, while diamonds are expensive?

• Until 1871, no-one had a good theory of supply and demand. Why are essentials like water cheap, while diamonds are expensive?

• Now we know: the value of the last and least wanted addition to your consumption of a good sets its value to you

• Discovered by Karl Menger, Stanley Jevons, 1871

• Shifted thinking from costs of production to demand, and led to ‘classical synthesis’ of Marshall and others - interlocking models of consumption, production, labout, finance etc in a world of free competition

Suppose a local coal market in 1840 had three typical suppliers / customers

• Suppose a local coal market in 1840 had three typical suppliers / customers

• The market price determines who produces and who consumes

• It’s determined by the marginal transaction

• It fluctuates with demand (weather) and can evolve in the long term with tech, investment…