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How We Decide, by Jonah Lehrer
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tarix | 12.08.2018 | ölçüsü | 1,78 Mb. | | #62350 |
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How We Decide, by Jonah Lehrer How We Decide, by Jonah Lehrer Nudge, by Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler
2002 Nobel Laureate in Economics 2002 Nobel Laureate in Economics Like William James, believes we have 2 mental ‘systems’: We make most decisions based on emotion, but even the rational parts: - Depend on our mood;
- Are often flawed,
- No matter how smart we are.
Seeing frequent advertising leads to a more favorable opinion of the product. Seeing frequent advertising leads to a more favorable opinion of the product. We need simplicity, so we jump to false (but consistent) conclusions. “People, including scientists, often search for information that confirms their own beliefs.”
Before implementing, revisit a decision on another day or another part of the day, to correct for mood changes. Before implementing, revisit a decision on another day or another part of the day, to correct for mood changes. Devise your own ad hoc strategies: DK let students’ answers to Q1 influence his grading of Q2. Now he grades all Q1s before going back to grade all students’ Q2s, etc.
Consider choosing a restaurant to take guests to dinner. Consider choosing a restaurant to take guests to dinner. What parts of the decision making process are rational? What parts are emotional? How would your answer change if it were a very important decision, for example, for your wedding or your daughter’s wedding?
Organizationally, or for policy Organizationally, or for policy - To explain - or justify! - a decision
Psychologically
Doctors are asked to choose, in 2 trials: Doctors are asked to choose, in 2 trials: - 1st trial: Alternative A is “60% chance of saving patient.”
- 2nd trial: The same alternative is called “40% chance patient dies.”
- More doctors choose alternative A in Trial 1 than in Trial 2, even tho choices are identical.
We hate losing more than we want winning. People with brain lesions that inhibit emotion do not display loss aversion behavior. “Normal” people do, consistently.
The emotional brain looks for patterns. The emotional brain looks for patterns. Casino games are random (except that e.g. slot machines pay 10% to the house). That is, no pattern. Thus, emotional brain does not want to stop playing. People with brain lesions inhibiting rational thought easily become addicted to gambling.
... values short-term payoff more than we value a greater long-term benefit. ... values short-term payoff more than we value a greater long-term benefit. ... is more concerned with our own neighborhood than with events in distant countries. ... cares more for what happens to individuals than to what happens to masses. Example: Genocide & starvation in South Sudan vs. abuse of one child in Oprah Winfrey’s school (2010).
How can we balance the effects of emotion vs. rationality? How can we balance the effects of emotion vs. rationality? The answer is self-examination. - We can be aware of our own emotions.
- Ask, “Why do I feel this way?”
Thus, Kozmetsky and Kahneman gave us good advice for evaluating our decisions.
Other parts of the brain can do only one thing. Other parts of the brain can do only one thing. But the PFC is versatile, - “does whatever you program it to do.”
- has connections to all other parts of the brain.
- Attempts to tie specific brain activity to specific behaviors are not yet reliable.
Placebo effect Placebo effect Distraction Tiredness Susceptibility to logical fallacies Stress
A veteran firefighter saved his own life by setting a fire around himself before he was engulfed by oncoming firestorm. A veteran firefighter saved his own life by setting a fire around himself before he was engulfed by oncoming firestorm. An airline pilot saved passengers’ lives by figuring out how to fly without hydraulics. Their strategies had never been tried before!! The strategies are now part of regular training. They were rational, creative strategies. How did these men do it?
They felt fear. They felt fear. They understood fear would not save them. They over-rode the fear and allowed the creative mind to engage.
Experience Experience Wisdom Speed in exhausting all possibilities of one mode, realizing the only possible answer is the other mode.
Experience Experience Wisdom Speed in exhausting all possibilities of one mode, realizing the only possible answer is the other mode.
Emotion can over-ride rationality. Emotion can over-ride rationality. Rationality can over-ride emotion. This is “executive control.” Have you experienced this? In what circumstances?
A person is facing rape, or is taken hostage. A person is facing rape, or is taken hostage.
Proving this won Kahneman the Nobel Prize. Proving this won Kahneman the Nobel Prize. We have discussed some of these biases (loss aversion, etc.). It may be possible to “nudge” people to better decisions by presenting choices in different ways.
Denmark: Green footprints leading to bins decrease littering; green prints leading to stairs, people still use escalator Denmark: Green footprints leading to bins decrease littering; green prints leading to stairs, people still use escalator USA: Telling people how much electricity their neighbors use decreases energy consumption. This does not work in France.
Realistic policies that recognize how people really behave Also big potential for unethical manipulation of people. See economist.com/nudge12 Have you nudged or been nudged? DISCUSSION
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhToKaPwKE4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhToKaPwKE4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3aE3SpT-BU&feature=channel http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ7uYel4qqk
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