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Information Support System for Decision-making in Case of Emergencies Leading to
Environmental Pollution: its Development and Implementation in the Research and
Production Association Typhoon
Authors: Vyacheslav Shershakov, Valeriy Kosyh
Research and Production Association Typhoon, Roshydromet
Translated by: Nataliya Vorobyova Joergensen
Table of content
1.
Introduction
2.
History of creation and development of the response system to major accidents in
RPA Typhoon
3.
The activities of FEERC of Roshydromet, as a part of RPA Typhoon
4.
Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant accident
1.
Introduction
At the present time many countries are paying a lot of attention to the creation and
development of systems which could be potential providers of informational support to the
decision making authorities in cases of emergencies which cause radioactive and chemical
environmental pollution.
Potentially hazardous sites are as a rule located close to larger cities. Therefore, an
emergency situation on such sites is dangerous not only for the environment but also for the
humans already at its early stage and. Consequently, being able to detect those instances at
their initial stage and provide an operational prognosis of their development in order to
predict the outcomes and mitigate the impact of the emergency consequences on the
environment and people is an issue of a current concern.
There exists a Russian Early Warning and Emergency Response System (REWERS), which
has been working in the Russian Federation for many years using the joint forces and
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resources of many ministries, institutions and country regions. One of the agencies which
participates in the activities of REWERS is Roshydromet, which task is to perform as a
meteorological observer and forecasts-maker as well as to carry out radiation and chemical
monitoring in the country. The monitoring is done by a network of observational stations,
which mainly observe the environment, and radiometric and chemical laboratories, which
provide the measurement data for environmental samples.
Additionally, a number of research organisations are a part of Roshydromet and on
top of their standard tasks they perform various environmental research projects, provide
scientific and methodological guidance, as well as assist in further developments of the
radiation and chemical monitoring networks. One of the top organisations representing this
line of work is the Research and Production Association Typhoon, located in Obninsk, about
100 km south-west form Moscow.
Typhoon carries out the research and finds solutions for a wide range of issues in the fields of
hydrometeorology and monitoring of the environmental pollution:
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It studies the atmospheric boundary layer, troposphere, stratosphere, upper
atmospheres and near-Earth space environment; tsunamis and various active
influences on the meteorological and geophysical processes.
-
It performs monitoring of the radioactive and chemical environmental pollution (soil,
air, surface water and seawater) by various substances of the anthropogenic origin,
products of the physical-chemical conversions and migration of the pollutants in
natural environments, makes forecasts of the influence (a forecast of the impact) of
the pollution on the quality of the natural environment in Russian Arctic and in the
North-Western part of the Russian Federation.
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It carries out an applied research- developmental and design-experimental tasks of
hydrometeorological, heliogeophysical, oceanographical (sea hydrology),
environmental pollution and hydro-meteorological instrument engineering nature.
One of the main tasks assigned to Typhoon is to support operational analysis and
forecasting services for the large-scale radioactive and chemical emergencies, occurring
on the territory of the Russian Federation and its neighbouring states, which could
constitute a potential threat to the natural environment and to Russian population.
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2.
Origin and Development of the Rapid Emergencies Response System in RPA
Typhoon
The famous Chernobyl accident in April 1986, which led to the contamination of large areas
of the former Soviet Union and other European countries by radionuclides, gave an impulse
to reinforce work in the direction of creation and development of a system able to analyse and
forecast emergency accidents causing environmental pollution.
For many years prior to the Chernobyl accident efforts has been made to create a
mathematical model and develop a software for their implementation, which would be able to
ensure the calculations of different pollutants’ dissemination in various environmental
components. Furthermore, during the whole period of the Chernobyl disaster, a task force has
worked in Typhoon preparing the forecasts of the development of the disaster. On the basis of
those prepared forecasts groups of dosimetricians were sent to the most dangerous zones in
order to determine the rate of existing to public threat. The gained by the task force
experience showed that in order to provide a rapid response to the large-scale emergencies it
is necessary to have both a software and a hardware systems, which would be able to on an
operational basis efficiently to collect, process, store and analyse the gathered data and to
prepare a forecast of the development of an emergency, delivering this information in an
easily accessible form to its final users afterwards. Another words, there was a need to
establish an information support system for the decision-making in case of emergencies,
connected to the environmental pollution.
The 80s and 90s of the last century saw rapid development of the personal computers and
technologies which used them as a base. This made a qualitative leap in the way the
information is presented for the wide range of customers. Bases on this type of technologies
Typhoon started to build its new system. After Chernobyl, Typhoon began an active work on
creation of technology, which is capable of immediately solving all the listed above tasks.
The first serious check of the results of this work happened during a breakdown on the
Siberian chemical plant in Tomsk, April 1993. The pollution forecast made by the specialists
of the Association proved to be sensationally correct.
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After the Siberian chemical plant accident, the board of directors of Roshydromet has
decided to create a single purposed technical unit within Typhoon, a so called Operational
Centre which would be able to provide both operational and forecasting information about
the state of emergencies on the territory of the Russian Federation and was to start work in
July 1994. Later on, in July 1997 the Operational Centre was reorganised into the Federal
Informational and Analytical Centre of Roshydromat, supporting emergency and forecasting
data in cases of emergencies posing a threat to the environment. The Center was entrusted
with additional tasks related to the implementation of international commitments of the
Russian Federation on forecasting the transboundary pollution transportations in case of
nuclear power plants’ accidents.
3.
Federal Informational and Analytical Centre of Roshydromat on board of
Typhoon
The Federal Informational and Analytical Centre of Roshydromat was founded in order to
provide operational and forecasting information during environmental emergencies and to
also to solve the following tasks:
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To collect, store, process and present data on the status of radiation and chemical
environmental pollution on the territory of Russian Federation to the interested
governmental agencies and institutions;
-
To provide immediate analysis and forecasting of the radioactive and chemical
environmental contaminations of air, surface waters and soil on the territory of
Russian Federation in case of emergency or its threat;
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To prepare and present the analysis and prognosis of the state of the radioactive and
chemical pollution , the weather conditions in the area of the accident and the
assessment of possible transboundary transfers made on request from the Russian
System of Prevention and Response to Emergency Situations at the federal level and
ministries and governmental agencies of operational data.
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To ensure informational support to the decision-making public authorities on
operational management and all their units during crisis situations with extremely
high environmental pollution.
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In the cause of the years since the Centre’s establishment, a highly professional team of
specialists was gathered, forming a successfully working team which still continues its work
on system development. This system at the moment is called RECASS NT and is built on the
modular approach, which allows easily increase its potential (performance capabilities).
Functionally, it consists of several subsystems:
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Data processing for receiving, storing, processing and displaying on a map base data
on hydrometeorological observations and results of monitoring of environmental
pollution as well as a forecasted meteorological variables and data of hydrological
regime of water bodies, demographic information, etc.
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Modeling of the transportation patterns of the 3V in the environment in order to be
able to make calculations of the radioactive or chemical spread in the air or on surface
waters.
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Assessment of pollutions impact and preparation of recommendations to be carried
out as protective measures, the aim of which is to determine the danger level of 3V
emission both for the environment and for humans.
RECASS NT working principal is client (customer)-server. All the customers can cooperate
(interact) as with the system of the local network, as well as remotely. All the system
calculations are done on servers, which the client (customer) related functions are performing
the service of cooperation between customers and the system and the presentation of the
results, also with the use of GIS- technologies.
The Federal Informational and Analytical Centre of Roshydromat works 24/7 which
guarantees immediate response in case of emergency situation which could lead to the
environmental pollution. Over the years of the Centre’s existence, it got assigned a number of
functions, connected with emergency responses together with making data and information
available. As has been mentioned earlier, the Centre is one of Roshydromet’s organisations,
which ensures data availability within the framework of the Russian System of Prevention
and Response to emergency situations. As a part of agreement between the Russian Federal
Atomic Energy Agency (Rosatom) and Roshydromet, the Centre exercises (fulfils) the
function of the technical support centre within the system of the anti-damage response trust
Rosenergoatom.
The Centre also facilitates the analysis of the pollution situation of the natural
environment during the nuclear tests, which is done within the framework of the agreement
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signed between Roshydromet and the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. The
Centre is also an authorized Russian organisation, which provides information (which is an
information provider) within the Agreement of the Countries of the Northern and Baltic seas
about the exchange of data on radioactivity monitoring.
Finally, the Centre is one of the regional specialised centres of World Meteorological
Organisation (WMO) which specialises in the area of ensuring of the production of the
models of the atmospheric transport as a reaction to the environmental emergencies. It goes
without saying that in order to be able to fulfil the above mentioned functions it is crucial to
have precisely working tools and equipment, highly qualified specialists and a way to
organise work and manage tasks.
As we have mentioned earlier, the most of the software used in the Centre has been
developed by its own specialists and combined into a unified system called RECASS NT to
support decision-making. The system is able to prepare and transfer the forecast of the air ,
soil or water pollutions, as well as recommendations concerning the counter measures, which
should be undertaken in order to protect urban areas in the coverage zone of emissions in any
time of day and night, within 2 hours after receiving the information about the emergency
situation.
This system adds in tools for calculation of emergency radionuclides transport, which is
based on three transporting models:
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a trajectory-based model, based on prediction of flows in the atmospheric layers at
different heights;
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a model of global random diffusion, based on the calculations of random fluctuations
of particles’ velocities and construction of the trajectories of thousands of individual
particles;
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mesoscale model of atmospheric diffusion based on the semiempirical solution of
turbulent diffusion equation.
Picture 1 shows an example of the calculations made in RECASS NT. High
computerisation of the calculation process allow receiving result almost immediately and
have constant automatic update of the operational data base, which includes the information
from the monitoring networks of Roshydromat, local (object base) monitoring systems and
also the meteorological forecast field.
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The Center’s performance is being improved during different international and
national trainings. But the real test of the quality of its work happens while real emergencies
causing environmental pollution take place or while cases which cause great public interest
(event with high publicity, stir interest among the public).
Particularly, the Centre was preparing forecasts for the Amur River, which was
contaminated with nitrobenzene from the Chinese Songhua River at the end of 2005. The
nitrobenzene was in the water due to an accident on one of the factories in China. The first
quantitative data on the pollution of the Songhua River were presented by the Chinese side on
25 November, 2005. The concentration of nitrobenzene in the river near the city of Harbin
was found to be 0.59 mg / liter. This finding has caused great concern in Russia since the
Songhua River flows into the Amur River, while its waters are being used (also as a source of
drinking water) by a million inhabitants city - Khabarovsk. Two hours later FEERC prepared
and delivered to Roshydromat its own pollution forecast of the water quality at the point
where the river passes Khabarovsk. According to the forecast due to dilution with clean water
the concentration of nitrobenzene in town vicinities was to be 0.077 mg / liter. Further
measurements on 24 December, 2005, when the pollution peak was supposed to be passing
Khabarovsk, showed only 35% less pollution than previously forecasted. This indicates the
high quality level of the forecast. Preliminary, on 7 December the time of reach the front of
pollution of the Khabarovsk was estimated, rightfully anticipated and successfully justified.
Here is another example of the situation of a completely different nature. In the summer of
2010 as a result of heat waves forests and peat bogs were burning in many regions of Russia.
In August 2010 the media reported that due to fires on the territories of Bryansk region,
previously contaminated by the Chernobyl accident, a radioactive cloud was formed and
moving in the direction of Moscow. In the meantime Roshydromat’s territorial units in
Bryansk and some other regions were carrying out selections of air samples and performing
measurements in a quickened mode. The survey of the contaminated areas in the region was
also conducted by an automotive radiological monitoring laboratory belonging to Typhoon.
According to the measurements from the default observational network there has been no
recorded cases of air pollution in July on the territories of Bryansk, Belgorod, Voronezh,
Kursk, Lipetsk, Orel, Smolensk and Tula regions. Additionally, the automotive Laboratory
carried out more than 15 different route surveys in Novyzybkovsky, Klintsovsky and
Krasnogorsky areas of Bryansnoy region, which were believed to be mostly contaminated
after the Chernobyl accident (Picture 2). The lab performed measurements of industrial
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radionuclides (Cs-137) taken from the contaminated surface areas as well as took air samples
for the purpose of the subsequent laboratory analysis. Further evaluation of these results
showed that fires had no effect on the radiation level in the south-western (most polluted)
areas of the region.
All this work was done with one purpose - to bring to the public an
objective and reasonable information concerning the deterioration of the radiological
situation on contaminated areas after the Chernobyl accident, which has not happened.
4.
Fukushima-1 accident
The full results of work on the development of RECASS NT system, as well as the
(performance capabilities) possibilities of Typhoon in assuring rapid response to emergencies
related to environmental pollution were in high demand during the accident at the nuclear
plant at Fukushima. As you know the cause of the accident was the tsunami which arose as a
result of strong earthquake near the Japanese coast March 11, 2011.
The first calculations made by Typhoon’s experts were made on the evening of March
11. In the absence of any information from the source, these estimates were made concerning
the trajectory of air masses transfer (movement) from the area of the location of the plant.
At 13:52 Moscow time Typhoon sent a note to the operational headquarters of Roshydromet,
which contained the calculated trajectories of air masses dissemination at the following
altitudes: 500m, 1.5 km and 3 km. On the basis of these calculations it has been concluded
that the accident had no consequences or risks connected with radiation releases within the
first day of the accident for the territories of the Russian Federation. This allowed time to
deploy necessary counter measures in case of possible negative consequences in the days to
follow.
On March 12 the radiation monitoring network of Roshydromet in the Far East
(Picture 3) was set into the rapid measurement modes which allowed obtaining dose rate
measurement within an interval of 1 hour and perform daily measurements of air samples for
the detection of artificial radionuclides originating from the nuclear power plant. All the
results of these measurements were immediately transferred to Typhoon via data
communication network of Roshydromet.
Considering that during the first days of the incident it was difficult to predict its
further development, on March 13-14, Typhoon’s specialists made a number of calculations
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of the so-called “conservative” or worst-case scenarios after the accidents. Pictures 4 and 5
show one of them. In those calculations the assumption was that the fuel from two reactors
would be in a short period of time (1 hour) released into the atmosphere, and the weather
conditions would be such that the emission transfer would happen in the direction of the
Russian Federation.
On March 19, Typhoon’s automotive laboratory of radiation detection was sent to
Yuzhno - Sakhalinsk, where for more than 3 months it was conducting a dosimetric survey of
the Sakhalin Island’s area, and performing the measurements of air samples to determine
concentrations of radionuclides in it (Picture 6).
Throughout the accident period at Fukushima plant, Roshydromet specialists routinely
performed calculations and made assessments of transboundary emissions transfer in from
the plant (Figure 7). On the basis of this information, the specialists were constructing the
routes for aircrafts to collect air samples on the request of Ministry of the Russian Federation
for Civil Defence, Emergency Management and Natural Disasters Response.
All information was promptly sent to the customers (to the Ministry of the Russian
Federation for Civil Defence, Emergency Management and Natural Disasters Response ,
Rosgidromet, Rosatom, etc.) in accordance with the current regulations.
As a part of the cooperation with International Atomic Energy Agency and World
Meteorological Institute, the Center of Roshydromet performed different types of calculations
to estimate the effects of the Fukushima plant accidents (Picture 8) as requested by both
organisations.
It is possible to continue listing the tasks and activities made as the consequences of
the accident. Yet summarising the results it is possible to say that the operating system at the
Center, its software, technical possibilities and the existing organisation of work are able to
prepare operational data and deliver it to clients. Naturally, during assessments of the
performance following the Fukushima accident, a number of process bottlenecks were
detected in the way the actions are being carried out. Obviously all these areas will require
improvement.
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5.
Conclusions
RPA Typhoon continues working on, developing, improving and upgrading their information
support system for the decision-makers in cases of emergency situations, which could lead to
environmental contaminations.
The need of this work is determined by the new continuously emerging issues. Effects
of fires in 2010 led to the need of development a system for issuing operational forecast
distribution of combustion products. These studies are underway in Typhoon.
The eruption of the volcano Eyyafyatlayokudl in 2010 was a starting point and a push
to begin organizing in Russia one of the consulting centers of volcanic ash (VAAC), with the
participation of several organizations. Herewith the calculations for the forecast of ashes
distribution will be carried out in Typhoon and already from the next year.
We acknowledge that life itself defines the ways of further development.
Unfortunately, they all arise from the problems which we are confronted with and which
come from nature and as from the humans who transforms it. But we see our ultimate goal in
both protecting the humans and preserving the natural environment.
Bibliography:
1.
S.M. Vakulovski, V.M. Shershakov et al. Analysis and Prognosis of Radiation
Exposure Following the Accident at the Siberian Chemical Combine Tomsk-7. Risoe-
R-750(EN). Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark, October 1994.
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Picture 1: An example of the representation of the culsulated results in RECASS NT system
Picture 2. An example of the dosimetric survey routing in the Bryansk region
(August 2010)
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Picture 3: Radiation monitoring network points of Roshydromet, performing
radiological measurements in the quickened mode during the accident at the Fukushima
plant
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Picture 4: a “conservative” estimate of effective dose (10 days)
(Level of intervention: 50 m³v)
0.5 мЗв
14
Picture 5: a “conservative” estimate of the doses influence of thyroid (children 1-2 years old)
(Level of intervention: 100 m³v)
20 мЗв
15
Sampling of radioactive aerosols
using the air-filtering plants
Sampling of radioactive fallouts using
horizontal plates
Изменение объемной активности радионуклидов на
Дальнем Востоке
0
50
100
150
22.3
26.3
30.3
3.4
7.4
11.4
15.4
19.4
23.4
27.4
Дата
10
-5
Бк
/м
3
Владивосток I-131
Влад.Cs-137
Влад.Cs-134
Южно-сахалинск Cs-137
Южно-Сахалинск Cs-134
Южно-Сахалинск I-131
Благовеще
нск
Хабаровск
Южно
-Сахали
нск
Садгород
Южно
-Курил
ьск
Озер
ная
Сосно
вка
Начики
Мильк
ов
Петропавло
вск
-Камчат
ский
Усть
-Хай
рузово
Усть
-Камчатск
ий
Оссора
Корф
Picture 6. Work of mobile laboratory radiation survey in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk
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Picture 7: Example of evaluation of transboundary transport from Fukushima-1
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Picture 8: Calculation of depositions I-131 (Bq/m²) from 15 to 30 March 2011
(area 5000 km) (according to the source, provided by IAEA)
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