108
Bankarstvo 4 2015
Lars Peter Hansen
Nobelova nagrada za 2013.
EFIKASNOST
TRŽIŠTA
KAPITALA III
Rezime
U 2013. godini Nobelovu nagradu iz ekonomije dobili su američki
ekonomisti Judžin Fama, Lars Peter Hansen i Robert Šiler. Monetaristi Fama
i Hansen sa Univerziteta u Čikagu i neokenzijanac Šiler sa Jejl univerziteta
su, kako je saopštila Švedska kraljevska akademija, ovu prestižnu nagradu
dobili za istraživanja koja matematičkim i ekonomskim modelima utvrđuju
(ne)pravilnosti u razvoju vrednosti akcija na berzama. Fama je sa kolegama
šezdesetih godina ustanovio da je kratkoročno izuzetno teško predvideti cene
akcija, pošto nove informacije brzo ulaze u cene. Šiler je, međutim, ustanovio
da, iako skoro da nije moguće predvideti cene akcija za period od nekoliko
dana, to ne važi za period od više godina. Utvrdio je da cene akcija fluktuiraju
znatno više nego dividende korporacija i da odnos cena prema dividendama
teži da pada kada je visok, a da raste kada je nizak. Taj obrazac ne važi samo
za akcije, već i za obveznice i drugi kapital.
Ključne reči: Nobelova nagrada, 2013. godina, ekonomija, Judžin Fama, Lars
Peter Hansen, Robert Šiler, monetarista, Univerzitet Čikago, neokenzijanac, Jejl
univerzitet, Švedska kraljevska akademija, akcija, berza, investicioni fondovi,
korporacija, dividende, obveznice, kapital
JEL: B31, G14, P34
UDK 06.068NOBEL::336.761.5"2013"
336.761Judžin Fama
336.761Lars Peter Hansen
336.761Robert Šiler
pregledni
naučni
članak
Rad primljen: 01.12.2015.
Odobren za štampu: 04.12.2015.
Svetlana Pantelić
Udruženje banaka Srbije
svetlana.pantelic@ubs-asb.com
109
Bankarstvo 4 2015
Lars Peter Hansen
Nobel Prize for 2013
CAPITAL
MARKET
EFFICIENCY III
Summary
In 2013 the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to the American
economists, Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller. The
monetarists, Fama and Hansen, from the University of Chicago, and the Neo-
Keynesian, Shiller, from the Yale University, according to the Swedish Royal
Academy, won this prestigious prize for their research providing mathematical
and economic models to determine (ir)regularities in the stock value trends at
the stock exchanges. With his colleagues, in the 1960s Fama established that,
in the short term, it is extremely difficult to forecast stock prices, given that
new information gets embedded in the prices rather quickly. Shiller, however,
determined that, although it is almost impossible to predict the stock prices for
a period of few days, this is not true for a period of several years. He discovered
that the stock prices fluctuate much more substantially than corporation
dividents, and that the relationship between prices and dividends tends to
decline when high, and to grow when low. This pattern does not apply only
to stocks, but also to bonds and other forms of capital.
Keywords: Nobel Prize, 2013, Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, Robert
Shiller, monetarist, University of Chicago, Neo-Keynesian, Yale University,
Swedish Royal Academy, stock, stock exchange, investment funds, corporation,
dividends, bonds, capital.
JEL: B31, G14, P34
UDC 06.068NOBEL::336.761.5"2013"
336.761Judžin Fama
336.761Lars Peter Hansen
336.761Robert Šiler
scientific
review
article
Paper received: 01.12.2015
Approved for publishing: 04.12.2015
Svetlana Pantelić
Association of Serbian Banks
svetlana.pantelic@ubs-asb.com
110
Bankarstvo 4 2015
V
eć više godina
unazad Nobelovu
nagradu iz ekonomije najčešće dobijaju
zajedno dvoje ili troje naučnika. U
2013. godini dobili su je američki ekonomisti
Judžin Fama, Lars Piter Hansen i Robert Šiler.
Monetaristi Fama i Hansen sa Univerziteta
u Čikagu nisu pokazali namere da menjaju
svet, već samo da ustanove efikasnost tržišta
kapitala (Fama) ili statističkog modela „koliko
je variranje cena povezano sa neodlučnošću
investitora“ (Hansen). Neokenzijanac Šiler sa
Jejla, pisac dva bestselera „Životinjske duše“
(Animal spirits) i „Iracionalnog optimizma“
(Irrational Exuberance), još je 1980. godine
otkrio da vrednost akcija raste brže od zarade
kompanije.
Kako je saopštila Švedska kraljevska
akademija pomenuti ekonomisti su ovu
prestižnu nagradu dobili za istraživanja koja
matematičkim i ekonomskim modelima
utvrđuju (ne)pravilnosti u razvoju vrednosti
akcija na berzama. Fama je sa kolegama
ustanovio da je kratkoročno izuzetno teško
predvideti cene akcija, pošto nove informacije
brzo ulaze u cene. Ti nalazi su imali znatan
uticaj na istraživanja, ali i na ponašanje na
tržištima, pre svega na pojavu takozvanih
„indeksnih fondova“‚ odnosno investicionih
fondova koji sačinjavaju akcije svih kompanija
s berzanskog indeksa.
Šiler je, međutim, ustanovio da, iako skoro da
nije moguće predvideti cene akcija za period od
nekoliko dana, to ne važi za period od više godina.
Utvrdio je da cene akcija fluktuiraju, znatno više
nego dividende korporacija i da odnos cena
prema dividendama teži da pada kada je visok, a
da raste kada je nizak. Taj obrazac ne važi samo za
akcije, već i za obveznice i drugi kapital.
Hansen je razvio
statistički metod koji
je posebno pogodan
za testiranje teorije u
analizi cena, navodi se,
takođe, u obrazloženju
Švedske kraljevske
akademije
nauka.
Nagrađen je zbog svoje
statističke
metode
kojom je testirana
njihova teorija a Šiler
je u istraživanje bio
uključen jer je još 1980. godine otkrio da vrednost
akcija raste brže od zarade kompanija.
Školovanje
Lars Piter Hansen rođen je 26. oktobra 1952.
godine u Urbani, Ilinois, SAD. Njegovi preci u
Jutu, Amerika došli su iz Danske i Švedske.
Majka Ana Lu Riz i otac Gaurt Hansen znali su
se još iz detinjstva, a zajedno su i upisali studije
na Državnom univerzitetu Jute. Prvo je, posle
četiri godine, studije završila njegova majka
1942. godine. Otac je na Univerzitetu Viskonsin
doktorirao 1948. godine. Lars je njihov najmlađi
sin, najstariji je Rodžer, inženjer, a srednji Ted,
genetičar i imunolog.
Kada je Lars imao 16 godina, porodica
se vratila u Jutu gde mu je otac postao
potpredsednik, a kasnije i rektor Državnog
univerziteta Jute. U gimnaziji se Lars nije
isticao, ali su profesori o njemu ipak stekli
mišljenje koje su pretočili u kratku poruku
njegovim roditeljima: “ne poštuje autoritete”.
Lars u svojoj autobiografiji objavljenoj na sajtu
“Nobelova nagrada” ističe da su roditelji u
njegovom vaspitavanju bili veoma strpljivi,
nadajući se uspešnom završetku školovanja.
Državni univerzitet Jute je upisao 1970.
godine, izabravši društvene nauke, smer
političkih nauka, zajedno sa matematikom. Na
iznenađenje roditelja mogao je da plati svoje
osnovne studije jer je zaradivao novac radeći
u veterinarskoj laboratoriji, na “hobi farmi” od
oko 80 ha svojih roditelja, kao i angažovanošću
na biračkim političkim punktovima.
Profesori koji su na njega naročito uticali
tokom studija bili su: Majkl Vindham, Dag
Alder i Bartel Jensen.
Vindham mu je pomogao
da bolje razume
matematiku, a Alder,
koji je predavao
evropsku istoriju, dao
mu je vredan savet
koji ga je iznenadio,
ali i naterao na
razmišljanje: “Larse,
ne prati putanju
drugih, već pronađi
svoje
jedinstvene
talente i neka ti cilj
bude da uradiš nešto
111
Bankarstvo 4 2015
F
or several years now the Nobel Prize in
Economic Sciences has most frequently
been shared between two or three
scientists. In 2013 it was awarded to the
American economists, Eugene Fama, Lars Peter
Hansen and Robert Shiller. The monetarists,
Fama and Hansen, from the University of
Chicago, showed no intention to change the
world, but only to determine the capital market
efficiency (Fama) or the statistical model “on
how the fluctuations of prices are related to
investors’ indecisiveness” (Hansen). The Neo-
Keynesian, Shiller, from the Yale University, the
author of two best-sellers, Animal Spirits and
Irrational Exuberance, back in 1980 discovered
that the stock value grows more quickly than
the company’s profit.
According to the Swedish Royal Academy,
the concerned economists won this prestigious
prize for their research providing mathematical
and economic models to determine (ir)
regularities in the stock value trends at the
stock exchanges. With his colleagues, Fama
established that, in the short term, it is extremely
difficult to forecast stock prices, given that new
information gets embedded in the prices rather
quickly. These findings have had a considerable
impact on further research, and on the market
behavior, first of all on the occurrence of the
so-called “index funds”, i.e. investment funds
holding shares of all companies from the stock
exchange index.
Shiller, however, determined that, although
it is almost impossible to predict the stock prices
for a period of few days, this is not true for a
period of several years. He discovered that the
stock prices fluctuate much more substantially
than corporation dividends, and that the
relationship between prices and dividends
tends to decline when high, and to grow when
low. This pattern does not apply only to stocks,
but also to bonds and other forms of capital.
Hansen developed a statistical model which
is particularly convenient for testing the theory
in price analysis, as stated in the explanation
of the Swedish Royal Academy. Hansen was
rewarded for his statistical method used to test
their theory, whereas Schiller got involved in
the research when, back in 1980, he discovered
that the stock value grows more quickly than
the company’s profit.
Education
Lars Peter Hansen was born on 26 October
1952 in Urbana, Illinois, USA. His ancestors
had immigrated to Utah, USA from Denmark
and Sweden. His mother Anna Lou Rees and
his father Gaurth Hansen knew each other
since childhood, and enrolled together at Utah
State University. After four years, in 1942, his
mother was the first one to graduate. Lars’s
father defended his doctoral thesis in 1948
at the University of Wisconsin. Lars is their
youngest son, the eldest, Roger, is an engineer,
and the middle one, Ted, is a geneticist and
immunologist.
When Lars was 16, his parents moved back to
Utah where his father was given the opportunity
to become first Academic Vice President and later
Provost of Utah State University. In high school
Lars was undistinguished, but the professors,
nevertheless, developed an opinion about him,
conveyed in a brief note to his parents: “does not
respect authority”. In his autobiography published
at the Nobel Prize website, Lars highlighted that
his parents had been rather patient with him,
hoping that he would eventually complete his
education with success.
He entered Utah State University in 1970,
where he pursued interests in social science,
majoring in political science, along with
mathematics. To his parents’ surprise, he was
able to pay his way through his undergraduate
education, because he worked various jobs,
including one in an animal science lab, a
political polling venture, and working his
parents’ “hobby farm” of about eighty acres.
The professors which particularly influenced
him during his studies include: Michael
Windham, Doug Alder and Bartell Jensen.
Windham helped him better understand and
appreciate the field of mathematics, whereas
Alder, who taught a European history class, gave
him a valuable piece of advice that caught him by
surprise and made him think: “Lars, do not just
follow the course of others but find your unique
talents and aim to do something different.” By
the end of his sophomore year, he decided to
try combining his interests in mathematics and
political science with the field of economics.
The third professor, Bartell Jensen, helped him
design an accelerated economics curriculum and
112
Bankarstvo 4 2015
drugačije”. Do kraja druge godine studija
odlučio je da kombinuje matematiku i političke
nauke sa ekonomijom. Treći profesor, Bartel,
mu je pomogao da osmisli ubrzani obrazovni
program iz ekonomije i u pripremama za
doktorske studije. Naime, ubrzani nastavni
program iz ekonomije omogućio mu je da
doktorat nastavi na univerzitetu u Minesoti.
Na ovom univerzitetu imao je dvostruku
sreću jer je uspeo da poveća časove ekonomije
i upozna svoje intelektualne mentore Krisa
Simsa i Toma Sardženta, koji su tada bili mladi
naučnici. Tu je počela njihova slavna akademska
karijera i tu su postali poznati po svojim
naučnim doprinosima na polju makroekonomije
i ekonometrije. Zahvaljujući njima naučio je
da misli makroekonomski i da oblikuje svoja
istraživanja ekonomske dinamike i vremenskih
serija. Pod uticajem Krisovih predavanja počeo
je da se bavi aproksimacijom velikih uzoraka, i
ta istraživanja su delom pretočena u rad na temu
generalizovanih metoda procene (GMM). Tom ga
je kao studenta angažovao na istraživanjima koja
su na njega delovala stimulativno, i to je preraslo
u dugoročnu saradnju. Zajedno su napisali
brojne radove, u oblasti ekonometrije racionalnih
očekivanja, ravnoteže sadašnje budžetske
vrednosti i robustnosti u donošenju odluka.
Nakon postdiplomskih studija počinje da
radi na Karnegi Melon univerzitetu, i kako sam
ističe, to je za njega bio prvi, idealan posao. Na
njemu je radilo više mladih profesora kojima
su povereni doktorski programi i vođenje
istraživačkih radionica. Tu je imao prilike da
razmeni ideje sa ovim naučnicima, koji su
kasnije ostvarili zapažene karijere. Na Karnegi
univerzitetu je oblikovao svoja prva saznanja o
teoriji cena imovine i počeo da istražuje nove
načine empirijskih implikacija ovih modela.
Uspešne čikaške godine
Na Univerzitet u Čikagu Lars je prešao
u jesen 1981. godine i tamo ostao do danas.
Istorijski posmatrano, okruženje je tamo
izuzetno interaktivno u istraživačkom smislu
i ekonomija se uzima jako ozbiljno. U Čikagu
se upoznao sa starijim kolegama, dobitnicima
Nobelove nagrade: Gerijem Bekerom, Džimom
Hekmanom i Bobom Lukasom. Iz saradnje sa
ovim poznatim naučnicima izdvaja Džima
Hekmana sa kojim je tokom godina često
razgovarao o širokom spektru tema koje su
vezane za ekonomiju.
Na univerzitetu u Minesoti, ali i na
univerzitetu u Čikagu, Lars proučava
nepravilnosti na tržištu rada i na području
međunarodnih finansija. Razvio je ekonomsku
tehniku “generalizovanih metoda momenata”
(Generalized Method of Moments) u kojoj
matematičkim modelom dodatno pomaže u
određivanju kakva bi najverovatnije mogla
biti maksimalna procenjena vrednost gde su
uobičajene metode za takvu procenu teške ili
neizvodljive.
Sledeći primer svoga oca, Lars je zauzimao
različite pozicije u okviru departmana,
uključujući i funkciju predsedavajućeg, a
bio je i angažovan na pokretanju Milton
Fridman instituta koji će kasnije postati
Beker Fridman institut za istraživanja u
ekonomiji. U tom periodu sarađivao je sa
mnogobrojnim studentima i bio angažovan u
brojnim odborima. Ti studenti danas rade na
akademijama, u privatnom sektoru i u vladi
sa velikim i širokim spektrom dostignuća.
Lars doživljava kao nagradu i priznanje njihov
uspeh na poslovnom planu.
Ubrzo po preseljenju u Čikago upoznao
je i svoju buduću suprugu Grejs Tsiang,
113
Bankarstvo 4 2015
also helped him prepare for a Ph.D. program in a
short period of time. The accelerated curriculum
in economics enabled him to proceed to the
University of Minnesota for a Ph.D.
At Minnesota, Lars was lucky in two ways.
First, he was allowed to augment his economics
classes, and second, it was there that he met
his intellectual mentors Chris Sims and Tom
Sargent, when they were young scholars. Both
had launched their stellar academic careers and
were becoming recognized as major contributors
to macroeconomics and econometrics.
Thanks to them, he learned how to think in
macroeconomic terms and how to shape his
research in economic dynamics and time series
econometrics. Influenced by some lectures by
Chris, Lars also began working on large sample
approximation arguments; some of this research
grew into his paper on Generalized Method of
Moments (GMM) estimation. He found Tom’s
willingness to engage him in joint research
while he was still a graduate student very
stimulating, and this grew into a long-standing
collaboration. Together they have written many
papers on such topics as rational expectations
econometrics, present-value budget balance
and robustness in decision-making.
After he finished graduate school, Carnegie
Mellon University was an ideal first job for
Lars. There were several young professors
and they were given much responsibility for
the Ph.D. program and for running research
workshops. He had the opportunity to share
ideas with many young scholars who went on
to distinguished careers. Carnegie was where
he first learned about asset pricing theory
and began to explore how to study empirical
implications of these models in novel ways.
Successful Chicago Years
Lars transferred to the University of Chicago
in the fall of 1981, and has been there ever since.
The research environment has historically been
highly interactive, with economics being taken
very seriously. When he arrived, he had Gary
Becker, Jim Heckman and Bob Lucas, all Nobel
Prize winners, as senior colleagues. In particular,
Jim Heckman and Lars have had many
conversations over the years on an extremely
wide variety of topics related to economics.
Ekonomska kriza
Pre godinu dana CNBC je prenela komentar
Larsa Petera Hansena zašto je oporavak
Sjedinjenih Država nakon velike ekonomske
krize spor. Jedan od razloga sporog oporavka
Lars vidi u nesigurnosti oko postojeće monetarne
regulative. “Previše pažnje je posvećeno
monetarnoj politici u ovom trenutku, ali su usled
nesigurne regulacije investitori ostali previše
oprezni. Njima je neophodno da se uključuju u
nove projekte. Pitanje kakvo će biti regulatorno
okruženje u narednom periodu previše koči
razvoj. Ekonomska politika mora biti veoma
precizna kako bi investitori mogli da jačaju.”
U drugom intervjuu koji je vodio Kristofer
Metjuz za časopis Tajm Lars o ekonomskoj krizi
izjavljuje: “Mislim da smo pre ekonomske krize
mnogo bolje razumeli ulogu monetarne politike
u ekonomiji. Finansijska kriza je otvorila nove
praznine u znanju i to nam postavlja nove
izazove koji nas guraju napred, kao što je često
slučaj sa novim dokazima.“
Economic Crisis
A year ago CNBC featured a comment of
Lars Peter Hansen on why the United States’
recovery after the global economic crisis has
been so sluggish. One of the reasons for such
a slow recovery, according to Lars, is the
uncertainty surrounding the existing monetary
regulations. “Too much attention has been
devoted to monetary policy and uncertainty on
regulation has left institutions guessing, which
has led to caution among investors. Investors
need to "jolt" themselves and get involved in
new projects. The question of what kind of
regulatory environment there is going to be in
the next few years is hindering development.
Clarity in economic policy is really critical in
terms of getting investment stronger.”
In another interview for Time, given
to Christopher Matthews, Lars stated the
following on the topic of the economic crisis:
“I think pre-crisis at least, we’ve understood
a lot better the role of monetary policy in the
economy. The financial crisis has opened up
some new knowledge gaps, and it’s giving us
some modeling challenges going forward as
new evidence often does.”
114
Bankarstvo 4 2015
diplomiranog ekonomistu čiji je otac bio, zajedno
sa kolegom sa Kornel univerziteta Ta-Čung Liu,
ključni ekonomski savetnik tajvanske vlade
zaslužan za “tajvansko čudo”. Grejs sa kojom
se venčao 1984. godine je imala veliki uticaj na
njegovu poslovnu karijeru jer je bila stalni izvor
podrške i ohrabrenja. Zaslužna je i za objašnjenja
zašto su njegovi naizgled apstraktni pristupi
ekonomskoj analizi doneli važne praktične
uvide. Grejs je imala vodeću ulogu u kreiranju
najpopularnijeg dodiplomskog programa na
Univerzitetu u Čikagu i pomogla je mnogim
studentima da pronađu svoj put do uspeha
dizajnirajući im nastavni plan i program koji
odgovara njihovim ličnim interesima, ciljevima
i sklonostima. Njen primer je pomogao Larsu u
njegovom savetodavnom radu sa studentima.
Njihov sin Piter rodio se 1992. godine u Hajd
parku u Čikagu gde je smešten fakultet i domovi
mnogih koji rade na fakultetu. Porodično,
proputovali su po čitavom svetu uživajući u
novim saznanjima i provodeći mnogo vremena
u dugim zajedničkim razgovorima.
Za časopis Tajm svoj doprinos ekonomiji
objasnio je na najednostavniji način: “Radim na
granici između ekonomije i statistike u oblasti
koja se zove ekonometrija. Deo mog interesovanja
jeste razumevanje kako koristiti statistiku na
produktivan način analizirajući dinamične
ekonomske modele”. Tokom svoje bogate
profesionalne karijere ostvario je više priznanja od
kojih izdvaja: nagradu BBVA Fondacije, članstvo
u Nacionalnoj akademiji nauka, nagrada CME
grupe, imenovanje za počasnog doktora nauka
Državnog
univerziteta Jute, Nemers nagradu
i Nobelovu nagradu. Želja mu je da i ubuduće
nastavi da radi na istraživačkim projektima
vezanim za implikacije koncepta neizvesnosti
kao pobornik dinamične ekonomije, doprinoseći
razvoju ekonometrije. Zadovoljstvo mu
predstavlja, kao i do sada, rad sa studentima, i
želi da njegova dostignuća podstaknu mlade
naučnike da napreduju u istraživanjima u
oblastima na kojima je on bio angažovan.
Odabrani radovi
1. Hansen, L.P.; Sardžent, T.J. (1980).
"Formulisanje i procena dinamičkih,
linearnih modela racionalnih očekivanja",
Časopis za ekonomsku dinamiku i kontrolu 2
(7–46): 1980.
2. Hansen, L. P.; Singlton, K.J. (1982). "Procena
generalizovanih instrumentalnih varijabli
nelinearnih modela racionalnih očekivanja",
Econometrica 50 (5): 1269–86.
3. Hansen, L. P.; Jaganatan, R. (1991).
"Implikacije podataka sa tržišta HoV na
modele dinamičkih ekonomija", Časopis za
političku ekonomiju 99 (2): 225–262.
4. Hansen, L.P. "Generalizovane metode
momenata: perspektiva vremenskih serija",
u Međunarodnoj enciklopediji društvenih i
bihevioralnih nauka, 2000.
5. Hansen, L.P., Sardžent, T.J., (2008).
Robustnost. Princeton University Press.
6. Hansen, L.P., Sardžent, T.J., (2013).
"Rekurzivni modeli dinamičkih linearnih
ekonomija", Princeton University Press.
Selected Works
1. Hansen, L.P.; Sargent, T.J. (1980),
"Formulating and Estimating Dynamic
Linear Rational-Expectations Models",
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 2
(7–46): 1980.
2. Hansen, L. P.; Singleton, K.J. (1982),
"Generalized
Instrumental
Variables
Estimation
of
Nonlinear
Rational
Expectations Models", Econometrica 50 (5):
1269–86.
3. Hansen, L. P.; Jagannathan, R. (1991),
"Implications of Security Market Data for
Models of Dynamic Economies", Journal of
Political Economy 99 (2): 225–262.
4. Hansen, L.P. "Generalized Methods of
Moments: A Time Series Perspective", in
International Encyclopedia of the Social and
Behavior Sciences, 2000.
5. Hansen, L.P., Sargent, T.J., (2008), Robustness,
Princeton University Press.
6. Hansen, L.P., Sargent, T.J., (2013), "Recursive
Models of Dynamic Linear Economies",
Princeton University Press.
115
Bankarstvo 4 2015
Both at the University in Minnesota and
at the University of Chicago Lars examined
irregularities at the labor market and
investigated the field of international finance.
He developed an economic technique, the
so-called Generalized Method of Moments
(GMM), in which he deployed a mathematical
model to additionally help determine the most
probable maximum estimated value, where
common methods for such estimation are too
difficult or impossible to implement.
With his father as an example, Lars served
the department in various capacities, including
as its department chair and in helping to launch
the Milton Friedman Institute, which eventually
became the Becker Friedman Institute for
Research in Economics. He also had the
opportunity to advise many excellent students
and serve on various committees. These former
students now hold a wide range of posts in
academia, the private sector, and government,
with an equally wide range of accomplishments
and interests. As Lars himself underlines, it has
been rewarding to watch their careers flourish
over the years.
Shortly after moving to Chicago, Lars met
his future wife Grace Tsiang, a graduate student
in economics at the time. Grace’s father and his
colleague Ta-Chung Liu, both Cornell University
economists, were key economic advisors to the
Taiwanese government in advance and during
the so-called “Taiwan Miracle”. Grace, whom
he married in 1984, had a major influence on his
life and career, as a continual source of support
and encouragement. She challenged him to
explain why his seemingly abstract approaches
to economic analysis delivered important
practical insights. Grace played the leading role
in building the most popular undergraduate
program at the University of Chicago, and
has helped many students discover their
personal path to success by helping to design
a curriculum to suit their personal interests,
goals, and strengths. This example has helped
Lars in his own student advising.
Their son Peter was born in 1992 in Hyde
Park, a local community in Chicago that includes
the University of Chicago and home for many
of its faculty. The three of them have traveled
all over the world, enjoying these family trips
and their long conversations together.
For Time Lars explained his contribution
to the economic sciences in simple words: “I
work on the boundary between economics
and statistics in this field called econometrics.
Part of my interest is understanding how you
use statistics in productive ways to analyze
dynamic economic models.” Over the years,
Lars has received much recognition for his
professional accomplishments: the BBVA
Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award, the
fellowship in the National Academy of Sciences,
the CME Group Prize, the honorary Doctor of
Science degree of the Utah State University, the
Nemmers Prize and the Nobel Prize. His wish is
to continue to investigate a variety of research
related to the implications of uncertainty – both
as a modeler of dynamic economies and as an
econometrician. He looks forward to advising
more students and learning from them, at the
same time hoping to encourage young scholars
to advance research in the fields to which he
himself has contributed.
Literatura / References
1. "Lars Peter Hansen - Facts". Nobelprize.org.
Nobel Media AB 2014. Web. 24 Nov 2015.
economic-sciences/laureates/2013/hansen-
facts.html>
2. Nobelova nagrada za ekonomiju 2013. Fami,
Hansenu i Shilleru, A. Šubić, 14.10.2013.,
www.banka.hr
3. Mitrović M., Nobelova ravnoteža, Biznis i
Finansije, 17.10.2013.
4. Nobelovci: Prespor oporavak SAD, Biznis i
finansije, 21.08.2014.
5. Matthews C., Economics: Nobel-Prize
Winner Lars Peter Hansen on How
Economics Has Helped You, Time, 23.10.2013
6. Pantelić S. (2015) Efikasnost tržišta kapitala
I, Bankarstvo, 44, (2): 94-103
7. Pantelić S. (2015) Efikasnost tržišta kapitala
II, Bankarstvo, 44, (3): 102-111
Dostları ilə paylaş: |