Microsoft Word Azerbaijan fast update 2 2007. doc

---

 

Azerbaijan | No 2 | March to April 2007  

Country Stability and Conflictive Events (relative)

 

 

Source: FAST event data 

 

AZERBAIJAN 

| Trends in Conflict and Cooperation 

  

As the graph shows, the country stability is still at a high level with a significant downward trend of conflictive 

events since the end of January. Nevertheless, the political landscape has not only been calm. An issue of concern 

during the period under review has been the persisting and growing tensions within the ruling coalition In Azerbaijan. 

During a debate on March 16 on the government’s report of its activities, parliamentary 

deputy Hüsseyn Abdullayev, formerly a loyal supporter of the government, launched a 

harsh attack on Prime Minister Artur Rasizade and his cabinet. Three days later 

Abdullayev was summoned to the prosecutor’s office and arrested for “hooliganism and 

assault.” He was later stripped of his parliamentary immunity and given two months 

pre-trial detention in Baku’s Bailovo prison. There have been other incidents like the 

exclusion of Sirus Tebrizli from the governing Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP) on 27 March. 

After accusing the head of presidential administration, Ramiz Mehdiyev, to be the 

“leader of a traitors group,” which feed President Ilham Aliyev with false information 

about the situation in the country, Tebrizli was expelled from YAP for violating party 

rules. It is obvious that tensions within the once monolithic governing elite in Azerbaijan 

are related to the fact that President Aliyev tries to replace the governing party’s old 

guard, which have been loyal to his father for many years, with younger officials whose political views are closer to 

his own.  

 

 

Another persisting problem is the situation of press freedom in Azerbaijan with at least seven journalists being 

jailed in the past year. On 20 April a court in Baku sentenced Eynulla Fatullayev, editor of the two independent 

newspapers – Realnyi Azerbaijan and Gündelik Azerbaijan – to two and a half years in prison after having been found 

guilty of “criminal libel” and “insult.” Fatullayev was accused of giving false information about the Khojaly genocide 

and insulting Azerbaijani people. Fatullayev’s arrest outraged his colleagues and on 24 April around 60 journalists 

defied a ban on rallying in the center of Baku under the slogans “Freedom to Eynulla Fatullayev!” and “Stop 

suppressing freedom of speech in Azerbaijan!” The police broke up the protest quickly and no one was hurt. 

Another case happened on 4 May, when Rafiq Tagi, a journalist of the monthly newspaper Senet, and Samir 

Sadaqatoglu, the newspaper's editor, were sentenced to three and four years in prison for “incitement to national, 

racial and religious hatred,” which was allegedly contained in a philosophical article on European and Islamic values. 

Furthermore, there have been attacks on Azadlyg newspaper correspondent Nijat Hüsseynov, spokesman for the 

National Independence Party Ali Orujev as well as the abduction and beating of Azadliq employee Fikret Hüsseynli 

and Bizim Yol and the editor Bahaddin Haziyev. All these persons adhere to opposition views and criticize 

governmental policy. Very significant for this development is the fact that Azerbaijan announced that it would no 

longer cooperate with the media rights group “Reporters without Borders”, which had criticized the country for 

repressing the media.  

 

 

But there are also some signs of the government’s good will: Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev pardoned 

over 110 prisoners on the Novruz holiday in March. Another bigger amnesty act was approved recently by the 

Azerbaijani parliament on 8 May; approximately 1,500 convicted prisoners will be released and another 7,500 

prisoners will receive reduced sentences.  

 

 

  

Representative of the NATO Secretary General on South Caucasus Robert Simmons visited Baku on 18 March 

and concluded that cooperation is strong and on a high level. According to experts, Simmons offered to start a dialog 

for Azerbaijan to join the NATO. But Azerbaijan's leaders have never stated explicitly that they either wish to join the 

alliance (as neighboring Georgia has done), or that they have no intention of doing so (as Armenia has done). It is not 

clear whether this ambivalence reflects the unwillingness to worsen relations with Russia, or an implicit acknow-

ledgment that Azerbaijan's armed forces are still far from meeting NATO standards, or a reluctance to implement the 

related broader reforms required of NATO candidates. Another reason for Azerbaijan’s hesitation about becoming a 

serious NATO candidate is the fact that it would probably have to enter into the anti-Iranian coalition formed by the 

United States, which could raise the conflict potential between Azerbaijan and Iran even more.  

 

 The Azerbaijan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Elmar Mamedyarov, paid an official visit to the U.S. on 22 March 

where he met with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. A memorandum about cooperation in the energy sphere 

between Azerbaijan and U.S. was signed in Washington. This document provides not only the rendering of state 

assistance in the establishment of energy corridors, but also includes cooperation on energy, democratic and market 

---

FAST Update | Azerbaijan | No 2 | March to April 2007  

Contact 

FAST International 

Country Team: Azerbaijan  

Sonnenbergstrasse 17 

3000 Bern 7 

Switzerland 

[e-mail] 

www.swisspeace.org 

FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, 

covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in 

Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an 

international consortium of development agencies, including the 

Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International 

Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development 

Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and 

Cooperation (SDC). 

 

 

economic reform, and security, which is essential to Azerbaijan. An US statement said that the deal was mainly aimed 

at facilitating pipeline projects that bypass Russia.   

 

 

At the same time, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Araz Azimov visited Brussels. At the meeting with the 

European Union and NATO envoys, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement and transport relations were discussed. 

Araz Azimov communicated Azerbaijan’s readiness to render Europe assistance in the diversification of energy 

resource supplies and in reducing European dependence on Russian energy resources. He further claimed that 

officially Baku is ready to become the mediator in the negotiations on transportation of Central Asian (Turkmenian 

and Kazakh) resources to Europe. This policy can be seen as directed against Russia and therefore important how 

Moscow would react to Azerbaijan’s ambitions. There is still close cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan – for 

instance, the actual production sharing agreement between the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan and Russian 

RussNeft Oil Company to develop oil fields in Azerbaijan. In addition when Azerbaijani President Aliyev met Vladimir 

Putin in Moscow on 27 March, the Russian President was unusually friendly to him, but still resentments occur all the 

time. Hence the Russian reaction to the Azerbaijan efforts came already on 12 May, when Putin signed several energy 

deals with the leaders of the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which allow Russia to 

continue to act as the chief distributor for the region's energy exports for the foreseeable future. The deals could 

simultaneously help Moscow realize several other geopolitical goals – destroying Azerbaijan and Western pipeline 

plans for the region, as well as increasing the dependency of Central Asian states on Russia. 

 

 

 

 

 In spite of a booming economy, Azerbaijan's financial system is still underdeveloped and largely cash-based. 

The banking sector is weak and is dominated by two state-owned banks: International Bank of Azerbaijan and Kapital 

Bank, which together control about 50% of the assets in the sector. They are significantly undercapitalized and not 

interested in playing a part in modernizing the banking system, which made rating agency Fitch place Azerbaijan’s 

banking system along with Iran’s in one of the highest risk categories. 

 

 While Azerbaijan faced an average annual inflation rate at 9.4% in 2006, the country will have inflation in the 

double digits in 2007 estimates the Cabinet's Financial Policy Officer Oqtay Haqverdiyev. Based on the latest 

statistical data, he is expecting the annual inflation rate to settle at 16.6%. He further added that people should not 

be discouraged by the latest data as the salary rate increase is around 26% and has recently beaten the inflation rate 

in Azerbaijan. But this will not solve the problems and anger of growing parts of the population, which do not profit 

from higher salaries and suffer a lot from price inflation. On 18 March up to 2000 citizens protested in Baku against 

this situation with slogans like “Where is the money from oil” and “No to high prices,” while some demanded the 

government’s resignation. As we have already mentioned in the last FAST Update, the government is reacting to the 

situation and worked out a Social Rehabilitation Program for families with low income. Also governmental allocations 

for regional development will be increased as President Aliyev promised during his visit to Jalilabad on 9 April. 

 

 

 Current data and behavioral and social trends indicate a very high probability for further growth of the HIV 

epidemic. The dramatic socio-economic changes associated with the transition period have had a negative impact on 

employment, people’s social well-being, and the social safety net. All these factors have contributed to a rise in drug 

use, commercial sex work, and migration. The rapid increase in new HIV infections in Azerbaijan is directly related to 

the increased number of injecting drug users (IDU) and migrants coming back from Russia. Although the epidemic is 

concentrated among IDUs, especially along the drug trafficking routes, an increase has also been reported in 

commercial sex workers. Furthermore, migrants create a situation where the epidemic could easily spread to other 

parts of the population. Linked closely to the HIV/AIDS pandemic is the upsurge of tuberculosis (TB) and drug- and 

multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), which is also associated with intravenous drug users. The prevalence of 

TB in prisons is much higher than among the general population, but "MDR-TB is not only a problem for the 

penitentiary system; it is a problem for the whole country and Azerbaijan currently has one of the highest rates of 

MDR-TB in the world," said Faiq Agayev, head of the national TB program in Azerbaijan.  

 

 

 The Yeni Azerbaijan ruling party has already begun with the preparations for the 2008 presidential elections, which 

sees Aliyev as the only winning candidate.  Right now, all dangerous potential rivals have lost their political power 

and the most important of them, like Farhad Aliyev, Ali Insanov and Hüsseyn Abdullayev, are imprisoned or have 

already lost their reputation and power, while still others are trying to keep their freedom and their capital.  

 

In the months to come, internationally related conflict and cooperation are unlikely to change significantly. 

With regard to the Karabakh conflict, the position of Azerbaijan seems stable and will now depend on possible new 

alignments after their parliament elections from the Armenian side.