The tallymans guide

THE

TALLYMAN’S UPDATE

TO THE

NORTHERN IRELAND

ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
2003

NOEL WHELAN & NICHOLAS WHYTE

[To be read together with the Tallyman’s Guide published May 2003]

A LIMITED NUMBER OF COPIES OF THE TALLYMANS GUIDE TO THE NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2003 ARE STILL AVAILABLE CONTACT [e-mail]

KEY TO PARTIES

UUP	Ulster Unionist Party
DUP	Democratic Unionist Party
SF	Sinn Féin
SDLP	Socialist Democratic and Labour Party
APNI	Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
NIWC	Northern Ireland’s Women’s Coalition
NIUP	Northern Ireland Unionist Party
UUAP	Ulster Unionist Assembly Party
PUP	Progressive Unionist Party
UKUP	United Kingdom Unionist Party
SOC ENV	Socialist and Environmental Alliance
WP	Workers Party
SOC	Socialist Party
IND	Independent
IND U	Independent Unionist
IND NAT	Independent Nationalist
VFYS	Vote for Yourself
UTW	Ulster Third Way

CANDIDATES 2003 CONTACT DETAILS

UUP	43
DUP	40
SF	38
SDLP	36
APNI	21
NIWC	7
NIUP	2
UUAP	1
PUP	11
UKUP	6
SOC ENV	2
WP	8
SOC	2
IND	13
IND U	7
IND NAT	2
VFYS	3
UTW	1
Female	49
Total	256

Nicholas Whyte Email: [e-mail] Noel Whelan [e-mail] Limelight Communications Phone: 00-353- (0)1-6680600 or Email [e-mail] The bulk of the information included on the following pages of this Tallyman’s Update derives from Nicholas Whyte’s Northern Ireland election site which can be accessed at http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections Readers are invited to participate in Nicholas’s online predictions competition at the above web address.

OVERVIEW

A Poll Postponed

The starting pistol had already been fired for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections when the May poll was postponed. The legal notices had been published in the press, a couple of the party political broadcasts had been aired, and some of the candidates had even lodged their nomination papers. This however did not prevent the British government from pressing the pause button on the campaign. To the annoyance of most of the political parties - although some were privately relieved by the postponement - Tony Blair and Paul Murphy indefinitely suspended the election, hinting at an autumn date but simultaneously not ruling out further delay.

Summertime developments

In June the Ulster Unionist Party availed of the delay in polling to engage in some trenchant in-fighting. A certain internal peace had prevailed between the Donaldson and Trimble factions since the autumn of 2002 when Trimble withdrew from the Executive and the Assembly was suspended. This fragile peace collapsed after the May poll was postponed. Donaldson and two of the party’s other Westminster MPs resigned the parliamentary whip. The leadership’s efforts to expel them from the party as a result were put on hold after the dissidents went to the Belfast High Court on a procedural point. Relationships between dissident MPs and the leadership remain strained. The internal divisions are reflected not only in the fact that the Ulster Unionist Party’s ticket in a number of constituencies includes candidates both for and against the Agreement but also in a number of breakaway candidatures by former UUP members, most notably that of Ivan Davis in Lagan Valley.
After a summer of relatively little discontent on the streets, talks between the parties and governments recommenced in the early autumn. However, the pool of personalities involved was smaller this time. The two governments kept in touch all along but significantly in September the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Féin began a series of bilateral meetings. While going through the formalities with some of the other pro-agreement parties, the governments honed in on the Trimble-Adams axis and even asked the two leaders to join them for a Downing Street summit. The SDLP and smaller pro-agreement parties fumed publicly at their exclusion; the DUP fumed at it all. Meanwhile the media speculated about a new sequencing which would see the IRA do further decommissioning, Sinn Féin say the war was over, albeit in indirect language, and then the Ulster Unionist Party welcome all this and be prepared to allow the Executive to be established so that elections would be held.
The day of history was to be 21st October, and in the early hours of that morning Downing Street announced that Northern Ireland Assembly Elections would indeed be held on Wednesday the 26^th November. Some things did go to schedule for the rest of the day. Adams said the necessary words and the IRA decommissioned but constrained General de Chastelain in what he could say about it. Trimble put the sequencing on hold and, after days of trying to restore it, the sequence was called off but the election is to go ahead.

A quiet campaign

By the time of close of nominations, 256 candidates had been selected to contest the 108 seats. The candidate line-up includes about a dozen significant changes since the line up in May, which are detailed in the following pages. A record number of female candidates have been nominated but this improvement may not be reflected in the results.
The impact of the delay and the circumstances surrounding the rescheduling of the election remain unclear.
All in all Northern Ireland is having a quiet election. Long delayed, almost inevitably the various campaigns are running along pre-determined tracks. The manifesto and campaign launches for example have been predictable in content and style. The media, out of duty and obligation, has systematically covered the campaign but have found little in terms of campaign happenings which would “stop the presses”.
The only significant news stories have been calls from several pro-Agreement parties for their voters to transfer to pro-Agreement candidates. In circumstances where cross-community transfers have been rare it is not clear whether these calls will have as much electoral significance as the media attention to them might suggest. Also figuring along the bottom sections of some of the front pages for a day was a story to the effect that a DUP poster citing unionist fears that Gerry Kelly of Sinn Féin would become justice and policing minister was removed from Safeway and Tesco stores.
A Belfast Telegraph poll created a flurry in the second week of the campaign. It put the four main parties in the following order - UUP 26%, SDLP 22%, DUP 20%, and SF 20%. The usual cautions about opinion polls are all the more important in Northern Ireland where Democratic Unionist and Sinn Féin support levels have traditionally been understated in polls. The base line first preference votes may give some comfort to David Trimble and Mark Durkan. However these are the highest ever recorded figures for the DUP and Sinn Féin in a poll and when coupled with questions about whether the voter was committed to their chosen party and to going out to vote the news was better for the DUP and Sinn Féin.
Notwithstanding the political events of the summer and autumn the authors see little reason to vary the analysis set out in our main text of the Tallyman’s Guide published in May. The final candidate line up has had some impact on the likely outcome in some individual constituencies and these are considered below. However, the direction and influence on voter patterns of support and mobilisation do not appear to us to have been altered dramatically by the timing of the campaign or the circumstances of its rescheduling.
The Unionist Contest

On the unionist side the hostility is open. The DUP campaign in particular has featured sustained attack not just on the Good Friday Agreement but more intensely on the Ulster Unionist Party candidates and in particular on David Trimble. We are still of the view that the Democratic Unionist Party will gain at least six seats. However, most of these will come not at the expense of the Ulster Unionist Party but rather from the seat pool won by the United Kingdom Unionist Party, those Independent Unionists who became the Ulster Unionist Assembly Party and probably also the Progressive Unionist Party, in Upper Bann, North Belfast, East Antrim, South Antrim, East Londonderry, Strangford, Lagan Valley and perhaps East Belfast.

That said, there are also three or four Ulster Unionist Party seats which are potentially in the Democratic Unionist Party’s sights, North Down being the most obvious.. This all points to a scenario where the DUP could come in close to, or just ahead of the Ulster Unionist Party. Trimble will have within his incoming Assembly party at least three anti-Agreement members and perhaps as many as five. Trimble may however be able to rely on the support of one or two non-UUP or former UUP independent unionists in an effort to re-establish the Executive and become First Minister if he gets that opportunity. The size of Trimble’s new Assembly party and the size of the anti-Agreement cadre within it will be very much shaped by his ability to motivate “middle unionism” to the polls.
The Nationalist contest

The electoral hostility between the two nationalist parties is less open although it was reflected in the initial poster wars as they both rushed, once the election was called, to out poll each other with their large-style corri-board posters.

The SDLP has put in place a well-organised campaign which has certainly succeeded in attracting media comment and coverage. However, it remains to be seen whether it will attract the support levels it needs to shore up the defence of up to six seats which are under attack in East Londonderry, West Tyrone, South Belfast, South Down, West Belfast, and Foyle.
Sinn Féin has arguably been helped by the five and a half month delay in the election campaign and by the peculiar circumstances in which these elections were called. Having shifted the republican movement, perhaps further than it wanted to go, the party can go to doors and motivate its voters by arguing that unionism would never be satisfied. On balance this will probably more than offset the vague loss of vote from the middle ground nationalist audience, still suspicious of the party and its para- military wing, which might have been moved to support Sinn Féin if the IRA had allowed the de Chastelain to be more public on the detail of its decommissioning.
The SDLP draws some comfort from the fact that Sinn Féin has only outpolled the SDLP in one election contest. However, that was just three years ago in the 2001 Westminster and Local Elections. The momentum and pace of Sinn Féin electoral growth and its demographic shape point to them outpolling the SDLP again in these Assembly elections.
The SDLP has talked a lot since the November campaign began about the fact that it will benefit more from transfers and that strong vote management will give it the crucial edge in the marginal seats. There are two good reasons to be sceptical of this argument. First, Sinn Fein shows signs of being less “transfer repellent” than they used to be, and also shows signs of significant first preference vote gain. Second, a central criterion for strategic vote management is a tight selection of candidates. It is imperative to keep candidate numbers down in order to minimise leakage in subsequent intra-party transfers. Although the optimum number required for a party ticket can be altered when an established vote getter or grandee retires, the SDLP has shown no signs of a tighter candidate strategy for these elections than it had in 1998. In those constituencies where strong names are not standing, their absence is more likely to have the effect of denting the party’s first preference vote share. The SDLP has also made a specific plea for cross community transfers, and although it does best of all parties for these, the Belfast Telegraph poll put the percentage of protestants prepared to transfer to the SDLP at just 4%. Even in large six seat constituencies, this will make a difference only in the most marginal cases.
Although there are a handful of seats that are marginal across the nationalist-unionist divide, on balance potential gains for SF from Unionists in North Belfast or North Antrim may be cancelled out by SDLP losses in Lagan Valley or East Antrim. If there is a shift it will probably be a gain of a seat or two by nationalism at the ultimate expense of the smaller unionist parties, the Women's Coalition (whose seats in North Down and South Belfast are both vulnerable) or the Alliance Party (whose most vulnerable seat is that held by its leader, David Ford, in South Antrim).
A Smaller Electorate

Much has been made by many commentators of the reduction in the electorate for these Assembly elections as a result of the changes in the procedure for inclusion on the electoral register introduced in 2002. As we opined in May, while these changes had an initial dramatic effect on the total numbers of the electorate, those political parties most affected put a lot of effort into getting those voters likely to vote back on the register. Although the overall electorate is still down by a significant percentage in most constituencies, the effect of this is likely to be very limited since those who have not availed of the additional opportunity to get back on the register are more likely to have been non-voters.

Canvassing Against Apathy

All over Northern Ireland teams of canvassers are battling bad weather. In a winter election campaign night time canvassing is further constrained by early darkness. This difficulty is compounded in Northern Ireland where residual security fears persist in many areas. However, above all else the parties are battling against apathy. In many ways the campaign is a competition not to change minds or swing marginal voters but rather to motivate and mobilise core support to turn out for a mid-week, mid-winter poll in circumstances where the progress and perhaps nature of government and institutions post elections is uncertain.

This Assembly election campaign isn’t moving much vote and is unlikely to do so – bar some dramatic unforeseen event – in the week or so remaining. On the political rumour mill there has been some speculation of a further IRA decommissioning move in the last week of the campaign. In the unlikely event that the republican movement is considering doing so it is likely to consider any such move an electoral gamble as likely to backfire as succeed by reminding many of what had not been done earlier.
It is more likely that the remainder of the campaign will patter quietly along. The percentage of voter turnout may well be as high as in 1998 but of course that will be on a smaller electorate

EAST BELFAST

Candidates Michael Copeland (UUP) Sir Reg Empey* (UUP) Jim Rodgers (UUP) Harry Toan (DUP) Robin Newton (DUP) Peter Robinson* (DUP) Joe O’Donnell (SF) Leo Van Es (SDLP) Naomi Long (APNI) David Ervine* (PUP) Terry Dick (Cons) Joe Bell (WP) John McBlain (Ind) Thomas Black (Soc) Rainbow George Weiss (VFYS)

The DUP and UUP both hold two seats here, and both are running one of their two sitting MLAs and two fresh candidates. The PUP's MLA David Ervine hopes to defend his seat; Alliance's Naomi Long hopes to defend the seat won by then party leader Lord Alderdice in 1998. The independent candidate and comedian/impressionist John McBlain hopes to add some colour to the campaign.

Possible Result: The two vulnerable seats in this constituency would appear to be the second UUP seat and Ervine's seat for the PUP. The Westminster result is not encouraging for the UUP while the local government result is discouraging for Ervine. In either case the likely winner would be a third DUP candidate.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1APNI, 1PUP

NORTH BELFAST

Candidates 2002 Fred Cobain* (UUP) Nigel Dodds*(DUP) Nelson McCausland (DUP) Gerry Kelly* (SF), Kathy Stanton (SF) Pat Convery (SDLP) Alban Maginness*(SDLP) Marjorie Hawkins (APNI) Eliz Byrne-McCullough (NIWC) Billy Hutchinson* (PUP) Fraser Agnew * (UUAP) Peter Emerson (Green) Raymond McCord (Ind U) Marcella Delaney (WP) Frank McCoubrey (Ind U) John Gallagher (VFYS)

The DUP, SF and the SDLP are all running their incumbent MLAs with a running-mate. The other three outgoing MLAs are standing again also - Fred Cobain for the UUP, Billy Hutchinson for the PUP, and Fraser Agnew, this time as a candidate for the United Unionist Coalition. The Alliance's candidate is Marjorie Hawkins; Elizabeth Byrne-McCullough is standing for the Women's Coalition; Marcella Delaney for the Workers Party; and Peter Emerson as ever is standing for the Greens. The Vote for Yourself Party candidate is John Gallagher while there are two independent candidates, Raymond McCord and UPRG linked Frank McCoubrey.

Possible Outcome: This is going to be awfully tight. Both SDLP and SF were very very close to winning the last seat here, and the DUP are well set for a second seat. Agnew, Cobain and Hutchinson must all be considered vulnerable. And with several strong-ish candidates from the smaller parties anything could happen on the last counts.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1DUP, 1APNI, 1 SDLP, 1UKUP

SOUTH BELFAST

Candidates: Esmond Birnie* (UUP) John Hiddleston (UUP), Michael McGimpsey* (UUP) Ruth Patterson (DUP) Mark Robinson* (DUP), Alex Maskey (SF) Alasdair McDonnell* (SDLP) Carmel Hanna* (SDLP) Tom Ekin (APNI) Geraldine Rice (APNI) Monica McWilliams* (NIWC) Tom Morrow (PUP) John Wright (GP) Roger Lomas (Cons) Paddy Lynn (WP) Jim Barbour (Soc) Lindsay Steven (VFYS)

The UUP, perhaps optimistically, have three candidates here, two outgoing MLAs and new candidate John Hiddleston. The SDLP are running both their incumbents; the DUP also have two candidates including their outgoing MLA. Alliance, which narrowly missed a seat here in 1998, also has two candidates. Outgoing MLA, Monica McWilliams of the Women's Coalition, is one of five women candidates, which is more than anywhere else in this election.

Possible outcome: Nobody can rest easy in South Belfast. All four of the parties that won seats are vulnerable. The 2001 elections did not deliver the same increase in the DUP vote here as elsewhere; the UUP are only just over two quotas; the SDLP is significantly below; and only a minor fall in the Women's Coalition vote will lose their seat. Sinn Féin's vote is growing here.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1DUP, 2 SDLP, 1NIWC

WEST BELFAST

Candidates: Chris McGimpsey (UUP) Diane Dodds (DUP) Gerry Adams* (SF) Bairbre de Brún* (SF) Michael Ferguson (SF), Fra McCann (SF) Sue Ramsey* (SF) Alex Attwood* (SDLP) Joe Hendron* (SDLP) Kathryn Ayers (APNI) Hugh Smyth (PUP) John Lowry (WP) John MacVicar (Ind U) David Kerr (TW)

There are 14 candidates running for nine different parties. Sinn Féin has nominated five, the most of any party in any constituency, including three outgoing MLAs. The SDLP are running both of their outgoing MLAs. Eric Smyth was to have contested for the DUP in May but has withdrawn. He has been replaced by Diane Dodds, wife of the North Belfast MP/MLA, Nigel Dodds. Bob Stoker was initially nominated for the UUP in May but has been replaced by Chris McGimpsey who was the runner up in 1998.

Possible Outcome: Only 512 votes separated Chris McGimpsey and Alex Attwood in 1998, and if Unionist candidates transfer more efficiently to each other then one of them may have a chance. However, the overall Unionist vote is in slow decline here and may now be just below the critical mass. In the 2001 local elections there was a Unionist quota but not in the 2001 Westminster election, due to tactical voting for Hendron. The vulnerable nationalist seat is the second SDLP one, but it remains to be seen whether it will go to SF or a Unionist, or indeed if it goes at all.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1DUP, 1APNI, 1 SDLP, 1UKUP

EAST ANTRIM

Candidates: Roy Beggs* (UUP) Roy McCune (UUP) Ken Robinson (UUP) David Hilditch* (DUP) Sammy Wilson (DUP) George Dawson (DUP) Oliver McMullan (SF) Danny O’Connor* (SDLP) Stewart Dickson (APNI) Sean Neeson (APNI) Anne Monaghan (NIWC) Caroline Howarth (PUP) Alan Greer (Cons) Andrew Frew (GP) John Anderson (Ind) Roger Hutchinson* (Ind U) Robert Mason (Ind) Jack McKee (Ind) Tom Robinson (UKUP)

Along with North Down, East Antrim has the most candidates at 19. The UUP are running both their outgoing MLA's, and also a third candidate. The DUP candidate line-up also includes two outgoing MLAs although Sammy Wilson was elected for East Belfast in 1998. Roger Hutchinson, formerly UKUP, was nominated to contest the Assembly election in May for the DUP but withdrew just before the elections were postponed. He has been replaced on the DUP ticket by George Dawson. Hutchinson himself is now contesting as an Independent. Alliance is running two candidates including outgoing MLA Sean Neeson. The other outgoing MLA is Danny O'Connor of the SDLP. The UKUP candidate is now Tom Robinson, a former UUP mayor of Larne. Veteran North Antrim councillor Oliver McMullen is the SF candidate. Independents include former DUP man Jack McKee, who was the runner-up in 1998, and veteran campaigner Robert Lindsay Mason.

Possible Outcome: The UKUP and SDLP seats are vulnerable. Before the candidate line-up was finalised it looked like the DUP would win the UKUP seat. However, two ex-DUP members are now contesting, one a sitting MLA and the other a near-miss last time, which complicates matters. Better balancing from the DUP, Alliance or UUP in 1998 would have gained the SDLP seat.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1DUP, 1APNI, 1 SDLP, 1UKUP

NORTH ANTRIM

Candidates: Robert Coulter* (UUP) James Currie (UUP) Rev Ian Paisley* (DUP) Ian Paisley [Jnr]*(DUP) Mervyn Storey (DUP), Sean Farren* (SDLP) Philip McGuigan (SF) Declan O’Loan (SDLP) Jayne Dunlop (APNI) William McCaughey (PUP) Gardiner Kane* (Ind U) Nathaniel Small (UKUP)

The DUP have three candidates, Ian Paisley père et fils, and Mervyn Storey. The UUP are running one of their two outgoing MLA's. The SDLP hope for a second seat with outgoing MLA Sean Farren joined on the ticket by Declan O'Loan. Gardiner Kane, elected for the DUP in 1998, is now an independent

Possible Outcome: The combined Nationalist vote in North Antrim is very close to two quotas. The second seat will be difficult to win, however, given that Sinn Féin are hovering around half of the SDLP vote. SF would be less likely to benefit from SDLP transfers than vice versa. The UUP's second seat is the most vulnerable among the Unionists, unless Gardiner Kane detaches a substantial share of the DUP vote.

	1998 Assembly Seats: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP

Candidates: David Burnside (UUP) Adrian Watson (UUP) Jim Wilson (UUP) Wilson Clyde (DUP) Paul Girvan (DUP) John Smyth (DUP) Martin Meehan (SF) Thomas Burns (SDLP) Donovan McClelland* (SDLP) David Ford* (APNI) Joan Cosgrove (NIWC) Ken Wilkinson (PUP) Norman Boyd* (NIUP) Jason Docherty (C)

SOUTH ANTRIM

The UUP and DUP are both running three candidates here. The SDLP have two candidates, including their one outgoing MLA, Donovan McClelland. The other two MLAs are also both standing again - David Ford, the Alliance party leader, and Norman Boyd, elected in 1998 for the UKUP but now running as "Anti-Agreement Northern Ireland Unionist Party".

Possible outcome: The seat won by Norman Boyd in 1998 looks pretty certain to go to the DUP; the UUP will keep both their seats, and the SDLP's seat is safe. The Alliance seat is vulnerable, but Ford can fend off the Sinn Féin challenge if he gets enough Unionist transfers.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1UKUP, 1 SDLP, 1 APNI

NORTH DOWN

Candidates: Leslie Cree (UUP) Alan McFarland* (UUP) Diana Peacock (UUP) Alex Easton (DUP) Peter Weir* (DUP) Maria George (SF) Liam Logan (SDLP) Eileen Bell* (APNI) Stephen Farry (APNI) Robert McCartney* (UKUP) Tom Sheridan (UKUP) Jane Morrice* (NIWC) John Barry (GP) Julian Robertson (Con) David Rose (PUP) Chris Carter (Ind) Alan Chambers (Ind U) Alan Field (Ind U) Brian Wilson (Ind)

Along with East Antrim this constituency has the most candidates with 19. The UUP are running three including outgoing MLA Alan McFarland. Alliance and the UKUP are both running outgoing MLAs with a running mate, Alliance's Eileen Bell joined by Stephen Farry and the UKUP's Bob McCartney joined by Thomas Sheridan. Peter Weir (elected as UUP in 1998 but now in the DUP) is joined on the DUP ticket by Alex Easton. Jane Morrice is defending her seat for the Women's Coalition. Other parties represented are the Greens by John Barry, Sinn Féin by Maria George, the SDLP by Liam Logan, the Conservatives by Julian Robertson and the PUP by David Rose. There are also four independent candidates, independent Unionist Alan Chambers, ex-UKUP man Alan Field, ex-Alliance Councillor Brian Wilson, and (likely to place last) perpetual candidate Christopher Carter,.

Possible outcome: The UUP appears to have two safe seats, the DUP and Alliance one each and Bob McCartney is pretty sure of re-election. Almost any outcome for the last seat is possible..

1998 Assembly Seats: 3 UUP, 1 UKUP, 1 APNI, 1 NIWC

SOUTH DOWN

Candidates: Jim Donaldson* (UUP) Dermot Nesbitt* (UUP) Jim Wells* (DUP) William Clarke (SF) Caitriona Ruane (SF) Pat Convey (SF) Eamon McConvey (SF) PJ Bradley* (SDLP) Marian Fitzpatrick (SDLP) Eamon O’Neill* (SDLP) Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) Neil Powell (APNI) Trudy Miller (NIWC) Raymond Blaney (Green) Malachi Curran (Ind) Desmond O'Hagan (WP) Nelson Wharton (UKUP)

The SDLP have four candidates, outgoing MLAs PJ Bradley and Eamonn O'Neill, joined by Marian Fitzpatrick and Margaret Ritchie. SF have three, Willie Clark, Eamonn McConvey and Catriona Ruane. The UUP have two candidates, outgoing MLA Dermot Nesbitt and running-mate Jim Donaldson. Jim Wells is defending his seat for the DUP. Raymond Blaney (GP) who was not a candidate in May has since been selected to contest the November poll. Malachi Curran led the Labour group in the 1996-98 talks.

Possible outcome: SF think they can challenge for a seat off the SDLP despite well-publicised difficulties over candidate selection; the Unionist parties both look secure. Raymond Blaney is the Green Party’s highest-profile candidate and if they make a breakthrough anywhere it will be here.

1998 Assembly Seats: 1 UUP, 1 DUP, 3 SDLP, 1 SF

FERMANAGH & SOUTH TYRONE

Candidates: Tom Elliot (UUP) Arlene Foster (UUP) Robert Mulligan (UUP) Bert Johnston (DUP) Maurice Morrow* (DUP) Michelle Gildernew* (SF) Gerry McHugh* (SF) Tom O Reilly (SF) Frank Britton (SDLP) Tommy Gallagher* (SDLP) Linda Cleland (APNI) Eithne McNulty (NIWC)

Assembly election candidates: SF are standing their two outgoing MLAs, Michelle Gildernew and Gerry McHugh, and also Tom O'Reilly. The UUP have three fresh candidates, Tom Elliot, Arlene Foster and Robert Mulligan. The SDLP's Tommy Gallagher MLA is joined on the ticket by Frank Britton, and the DUP's Maurice Morrow MLA is running with Bert Johnston. The other two candidates are Linda Cleland of Alliance and Eithne McNulty of the Women's Coalition.
Possible outcome: No change is the most likely result here, though the Nationalist vote is slowly approaching four quotas. The DUP vote did not skyrocket in the 2001 local elections here and so they are unlikely to make the seat gain they hope for.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 2 SF

FOYLE

Candidates: Mary Hamilton (UUP) William Hay* (DUP) Raymond McCartney (SF) Mitchel McLaughlin* (SF) Mary Nelis* (SF) Mark Durkan (SDLP) Pat Ramsey (SDLP) Mary Bradley (SDLP) Gerard Diver (SDLP) Alan Castle (APNI) Annie Courtney* (Ind Nat) Danny McBreaty* (Ind) Eamonn McCann* (Soc Env)

The SDLP are running four here, with outgoing MLA Mark Durkan joined by Pat Ramsey, Mary Bradley and Gerard Diver. Outgoing MLA John Tierney was selected to contest for the party in May but has withdrawn. SF has three candidates, outgoing MLAs Mitchel McLaughlin and Mary Nelis joined on the ticket by Raymond McCartney. William Hay MLA will defend the DUP seat. The UUP has changed their candidate since May and now Mary Hamilton is contesting. Journalist Eamonn McCann is contesting for the Socialist and Environmental Alliance. Annie Courtney, who replaced Hume in the outgoing Assembly wasn’t selected by the SDLP so is running as an independent.

Possible outcome: The Unionist vote here is slipping gradually but there will be a Unionist (probably DUP) seat here for some elections to come. Sinn Fein will be challenging for an SDLP seat.

1998 Assembly Seats: 1 DUP, 3 SDLP, 2 SF

LAGAN VALLEY

Candidates: Nora Beare (UUP) William Bell* (UUP) Jeffrey Donaldson (UUP) James Kirkpatrick (UUP) Andrew Hunter (DUP) Edwin Poots* (DUP) Paul Butler (SF) Patricia Lewsley* (SDLP) Seamus Close* (APNI) Joanne Johnston (Cons) Andrew Park (PUP) Ivan Davis* (Ind U) Frances McCarthy (WP)

The UUP are running four here including outgoing MLA Billy Bell and dissident Westminster MP Jeffrey Donaldson. Ivan Davis was previously the UUP chief whip in the outgoing Assembly but was not reselected by the party and is contesting as an Independent. The DUP have two candidates, outgoing MLA Edwin Poots and Andrew Hunter, the Westminster MP for Basingstoke and former Conservative. Patrick Roche, elected for the UKUP in 1998, is not seeking re-election. The other two outgoing MLA’s are Seamus Close for Alliance and Patricia Lewsley for the SDLP.

Possible outcome: The seat won by Patrick Roche for the UKUP in 1998 is up for grabs, and the DUP, UUP and independent candidate Ivan Davis must all be reckoned to have a chance of winning it. The SDLP seat must also be considered vulnerable if SF outpolls them on the first count. However, SF may not get enough transfers to beat the fifth Unionist.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UKUP, 1 APNI

EAST LONDONDERRY

Candidates: Norman Hillis (UUP) David McClarty* (UUP) Edwin Stevenson (UUP) Maurice Bradley (DUP) Gregory Campbell* (DUP) George Robinson (DUP) Francie Brolly (SF) Cliona O’Kane (SF) Michael Coyle* (SDLP) John Dallat* (SDLP) Boyd Douglas* (UUAP) Yvonne Boyle (APNI) Marion Baur (Soc Env) Pauline Armitage* (UKUP)

Some 14 candidates from 8 parties are standing here. The UUP have three candidates: Norman Hillis, outgoing MLA David McClarty and Arthur Stevenson. The DUP also have three: John Bradley, outgoing MLA Gregory Campbell, and George Robinson. The SDLP have two candidates, with outgoing MLAs Michael Coyle and John Dallat both hoping for re-election. Sinn Féin is also running two: Francie Brolly and Cliona O'Kane. Outgoing MLA Pauline Armitage, elected as a UUP candidate in 1998, has been nominated this time by the UKUP. The sixth of the outgoing MLA's, Boyd Douglas, is also standing for re-election under the banner of the United Unionist Coalition. Yvonne Boyle is once again standing for Alliance while Marion Baur is running for the Socialist Environmental Alliance.

Possible outcome: One has to fancy the DUP's chances of winning an extra seat, given their relatively near miss in 1998 and solid performance since culminating in winning the Westminster seat in 2001. However, the presence of two dissident Unionist members of the outgoing Assembly may slow them down a little. The UUP vote looks fairly solid, but presumably Pauline Armitage will hope to keep enough of it for herself to make a difference. On the Nationalist side, SF's recent performance would give them one of the SDLP seats.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 2 SDLP, 1 IND Un

MID ULSTER

Candidates Billy Armstrong* (UUP) Trevor Wilson (UUP) William McCrea* (DUP) Alan Millar (DUP) Geraldine Dougan (SF) Cora Groogan (SF) Martin McGuinness* (SF) Francie Molloy* (SF) Denis Haughey (SDLP) Patsy McGlone (SDLP) James Holmes (APNI) Francie Donnelly (WP)

Sinn Féin are running four candidates, sitting MLAs Martin McGuinness and Francie Molloy, and new candidates Geraldine Dougan and Cora Groogan who at 22 is probably the youngest candidate in the election. Outgoing MLA John Kelly had been selected to contest for SF in May but has since withdrawn. The SDLP's MLA Denis Haughey is running with Patsy McGlone. The DUP’s outgoing MLA William McCrea is running with Alan Miller and the UUP's outgoing MLA Billy Armstrong is running with Trevor Wilson.

Possible Outcome: The present balance looks stable. The SDLP weren't very far off a second seat in 1998 but appear unlikely to get there this time.

1998 Assembly Seats: 1UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 3 SF

NEWRY AND ARMAGH

Candidates: Danny Kennedy* (UUP) Paul Berry* (DUP) Freda Donnelly (DUP) Davy Hyland (SF) Conor Murphy* (SF) Patricia O’Rawe (SF) Dominic Bradley (SDLP) John Fee* (SDLP) Jim Lennon (SDLP) Peter Whitcroft (APNI), William Fraser (Ind U)

There are only eleven candidates contesting - the lowest number in any constituency. The SDLP and SF are both running a sitting MLA with two running mates, John Fee being joined on the SDLP ticket by Dominic Bradley and Jim Lennon, and SF's Conor Murphy running with Davy Hyland and Pat O'Rawe. Paul Berry MLA and Freda Donnelly are the DUP candidates, and Danny Kennedy MLA is defending his seat for the UUP. Ivor Whitten (UUP) had been nominated to contest as a second candidate for the party in May but has withdrawn. Pete Whitcroft is standing for Alliance and pro-independence candidate William Frazer makes up the numbers.

Possible Outcome 2002: The overall Unionist vote here is threatened by demographic change - after all, the UUP won this parliamentary seat in 1983. So it is possible that they might dip below two quotas in future elections. It is not clear which Nationalist party could expect to make the gain. In the short term however the balance looks stable.

1998 Assembly Seats: 1UUP, 1 DUP, 2 SDLP, 2 SF

STRANGFORD

Candidates: Bob Little* (UUP), Lord Kilclooney* (UUP) David McNarry (UUP) George Ennis (DUP) Iris Robinson* (DUP) Jim Shannon (DUP) Dermot Kennedy (SF) Joe Boyle (SDLP) Kieran McCarthy* (APNI) Cedric Wilson* (NIUP) Colin Neill (PUP) Philip Orr (Green) Danny McCarthy (Ind N)

The DUP have three candidates, outgoing MLAs Iris Robinson and Jim Shannon are joined by George Ennis. The UUP's outgoing MLA Lord Kilclooney (formerly John Taylor) is joined on the ticket by Bob Little and David McNarry. Outgoing MLA Tom Hamilton had originally been selected to contest for the UUP in May but has withdrawn and has been replaced by Bob Little. Kieran McCarthy of Alliance and Cedric Wilson of the NIUP (originally UKUP) are defending their seats. The other hopefuls are Joe Boyle (SDLP), Dermot Kennedy (SF), Colin Neill (PUP), Philip Orr (Green) and Danny McCarthy (Independent, ex-SDLP).

Possible Outcomes: Cedric Wilson is unlikely to retain his seat, and probably it will go to the DUP, though other Unionists, or even the SDLP, might have a chance. The 2001 Westminster elections point to the Alliance seat looking vulnerable, but comparison with the 2001 local elections makes it clear that this was because of tactical voting for the UUP.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 2 DUP, 1 APNI, 1 UKUP

WEST TYRONE

Candidates: Derek Hussey* (UUP) Bert Wilson (UUP) Thomas Buchanan (DUP) Derek Reaney (DUP) Pat Doherty* (SF) Barry McElduff* (SF) Brian McMahon (SF) Joe Byrne* (SDLP) Eugene McMenamin* (SDLP) Steven Alexander (APNI) Roy Reid (PUP) Kieran Deeny (Ind)

Sinn Féin are running three candidates, sitting MLAs Pat Doherty and Barry McElduff along with Brian McMahon. The SDLP's two outgoing MLAs, Joe Byrne and Eugene McMenamin, are both seeking re-election. Bert Wilson joins the UUP’s outgoing MLA Derek Hussey on the ticket. The DUP's two candidates are Thomas Buchanan and Derek Reaney. The PUP candidate is Roy Reid; Steven Alexander is standing for the Alliance Party; and Kieran Deeny is an independent candidate. Uniquely, there are no women candidates here in this election.

Possible Outcome: Sinn Féin are very close to taking three out of four Nationalist seats here, if they can take a few percent more from the SDLP as they did in neighbouring Mid-Ulster. The vote shares for the two Unionist parties seem unlikely to change unless there is a major outbreak of factionalism within either of them.

1998 Assembly Seats: 1UUP, 1 DUP, 2 SDLP, 2 SF

UPPER BANN

Candidates: Samuel Gardiner (UUP) George Savage (UUP) David Trimble* (UUP) Stephen Moutray (DUP) David Simpson (DUP) Denis Watson* (DUP) John O’Dowd (SF) Dara O’Hagan (SF), Dolores Kelly (SDLP) Kieran Corr (SDLP) Frank McQuaid (APNI) Tom French (WP) Sidney Anderson (Ind) David Jones (Ind)

The UUP's two sitting MLAs, David Trimble and George Savage, are running with Samuel Gardiner again as their running-mate. The DUP are running Denis Watson, who won here as an independent Unionist in 1998, along with Stephen Moutray and David Simpson. Sinn Féin's candidates are Dara O'Hagan MLA and John O'Dowd. The SDLP are running Kieran Corr and Dolores Kelly while Alliance's candidate is Frank McQuaid. The independent candidates are David Jones, an Orange Order spokesman in Portadown, and his ally, ex-UUP councillor Sidney Anderson

Assembly election speculation: Watson's seat should be won by the DUP giving them two. SDLP should hold Bríd Rodgers seat. Nationalists are still some way off a third seat. The two independent candidates are both dissident unionists which could make things interesting.

1998 Assembly Seats: 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF, 1UUAP

ELECTORATE, TURNOUTS AND QUOTAS

CONSTITUENCY	Electorate 2002*	Electorate 1998	Change on 1998	Turnout 1998	Likely 2002 Quota**
North Belfast	51,355	62,541	-11,186	65.8%	4,828
South Belfast	50,707	61,209	-10,502	67.7%	4,905.
East Belfast	51,355	60,562	- 9,207	66.0%	4,843
West Belfast	50,873	60,669	-9,796	70.5%	5,125
East Antrim	55,477	59,313	-3,836	60.9%	4,827
North Antrim	70,493	73,247	-2,754	68.4%	6,889
South Antrim	63,644	69,426	-7,782	63.2%	5,747
North Down	57,426	62,942	-5,516	60.2%?	5,186
South Down	70,155	71,000	-845	73.7%	7,387
Ferm Sth Tyrone	64,355	65,383	-1,028	77.4%	7,117
Foyle	65,312	68,888	-3,576	72.0%	6,719
Lagan Valley	67,921	71,661	-3,740	65.7%	6,376
East Londonderry	56,202	59,370	-3,168	67.7%	5,436
Mid Ulster	60,113	59,991	+ 122	84.4%	7,248
Newry And Armagh	68,740	71,553	-2,813	77.3%	7,592
Strangford	66,314	70,868	-4,554	61.9%	5,865
West Tyrone	57,796	59,081	-1,285	79.4%	6,557
Upper Bann	68,816	70,852	-2,036	72.3%	7,109
Total Electorate	1,097,054			68.8%

*The effective date by which a person must be on the electoral register in order to be in a

position to vote in this Assembly Elections on the 26^th November is 1^st Sept 2003

** Quota scenario calculated on basis on the same constituency turnout as 1998

ERRATA TO THE TALLYMAN’S GUIDE (published May 2003)

PAGE	CORRECTION
42	(South Belfast) Michael McGimpsey has never been a stockbroker.
43	(South Belfast) The total votes per party in 1998 were UUP 9,533, SDLP 8,838, DUP 5,321, Alliance 4,086, NIWC 3,912, SF 2,605, PUP 2,112, and others 4,317.
69-70	(South Antrim) The names of candidates in the second row of the table should be as follows: 2^nd count, Stidolph and Frawley; 3^rd count, Cosgrove; 4^th Wilkinson; 5^th Wilson; 6^th Deignan; 7^thClyde; 8^th Meehan; 9^th Hunter; 10^th Shipley-Dalton.
82	(South Down) The names of candidates in the second row of the table should be as follows: 7^th count Murphy; 8^th Hanna; 9^th Nesbitt; 10^th Anne Carr; 11^th Bradley.
105	(East Londonderry) On the 7^th count it is McClarty’s surplus which is being redistributed rather than Dallat’s.
109	(Mid Ulster) The candidates whose votes are being distributed are as follows: 2^nd count, McCrea surplus; 3^rd count, Boyle, Donnelly, Hutchinson, and Daly’s votes; 4^th count, McGuinness surplus; 5^th count, Junkin’s votes; 6^th count, MacLean’s votes.
119	(Strangford) Although their names are in bold face, Danny McCarthy and Brian Hanvey were not elected.
120	(Strangford) There was a 16^th count and a 17^th count. On the 16^th count, Beattie (Ind U) was eliminated. His 4087 votes went 1608 to Benson (UUP), 541 to Wilson (UKUP), 427 to Shannon (DUP), 171 to Daniel McCarthy (SDLP) and 107 to Kieran McCarthy (Alliance) with 1233 non-transferable. This left the remaining candidates as follows: Benson (UUP) on 6327, Kieran McCarthy (Alliance) on 6202, Shannon (DUP) on 5863, Wilson (UKUP) on 4720 and Daniel McCarthy (SDLP) on 4610. As the quota was 6132, Benson and Kieran McCarthy were declared elected. Benson’s 195-vote surplus was redistributed on the 17^th and final count. 84 went to Wilson (UKUP), 70 to Shannon (DUP) and 35 to McCarthy (SDLP) giving them final totals of 5933 for Shannon, 4804 for Wilson and 4645 for McCarthy. Shannon and Wilson therefore took the last two places.