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The Economist
April 22nd 2023
Finance & economics
these debts are based on the laws of Hong
Kong or other offshore jurisdictions but—
in the event of a dispute—involve claiming
assets almost exclusively based in China,
and therefore governed by Chinese law.
This has created a buffer between creditors
such as BlackRock, an American asset
manager, and the holdings of Evergrande.
Only recently have developers given a
sense of what they are willing to offer the
foreigners. So far the outlook is far from
encouraging. Since the start of the year five
companies have put forward restructuring
plans, including Evergrande and Sunac,
another highly indebted firm that recently
defaulted. The proposals could become
templates for other restructuring attempts
over the years to come.
What is on offer is mainly debt exten
sions rather than “sustainable and perma
nent restructurings”, note analysts at
Fitch, a rating agency. For example, one
group of Evergrande creditors will receive
new bonds with maturities of up to 12
years—a frightfully long wait. Those will
ing to accept riskier equitylinked instru
ments can expect repayment in under a de
cade. Sunac investors have been offered a
similar, albeit slightly better, deal.
Both Evergrande and Sunac are also of
fering to swap debt for stakes in some of
their operations. The former has been try
ing for several years to build an electricve
hicle business, and is willing to give credi
tors a slice. Sunac has a propertymanage
ment arm that it is offering up. Such in
vestments pay nice dividends when firms
perform well, but offer far less protection
than fixedincome investments when they
collapse. Accepting such offers would be a
“leap of faith”, according to Sandra Chow of
CreditSights, a research firm. Few creditors
will willingly take so much as a hop.
One Hong Kongbased lawyer has called
the early restructuring proposals “a bad
punchline at the end of a long joke”. They
will, however, buy developers some time.
The central government’s priority now is to
reestablish confidence among home
buyers. To do that officials must ensure
that homes for which payments have been
made actually get delivered. This strategy
does not include direct support for foreign
creditors. Yet if the state can muster a gra
dual recovery in the property market, some
companies may be able to offer offshore
bondholders better deals.
The government has loosened some of
the restrictions that threw the sector into
turmoil in the first place. An improvement
is clearly in the works. In 30 of China’s big
cities, sales in March increased by 44%,
year on year. The same month, average
property prices across 70 cities rose, too. If
the revival continues, the proposals from
Evergrande and Sunac might mark a low
point for the market, and for foreign confi
dence in it. That, at least, is the hope.
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