Finance: theory and practice  Vol. 26, No. 2’2022  financetp. Fa. Ru

Characteristics of scenarios for forecasting changes in the GDP of the Russian Federation, taking into 
account the classification of companies by the level of innovation activity
scenario
Type
scenario prerequisites
Group of industries 
by the level of 
innovation activity
Expected result and 
effect from innovation 
funding, %
1
Base
The development of a financial 
mechanism to stimulate 
the innovation activities of 
industrial corporations in the 
context of the digitalization of 
the economy is not carried out
All groups
0
2
Stimulating
Financial mechanism for 
stimulating the innovation 
activity of industrial 
corporations in the context 
of the digitalization of the 
economy is being implemented
Low active
From 0 to 0.7
3
Stimulating
Medium active
From 0.7 to 1.4
4
Stimulating
Highly active
From 1.4 to 2.1
Source: 
developed by the authors.
INVEsTMENT POlICY

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FINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE 

Vol. 26, No. 2’2022 

 FINANCETP.FA.RU
83
Table 3
Characteristics of the result-effective and factor variables in forecasting changes in the GDP of the 
Russian Federation in the framework of correlation and regression modeling
Applied econometric 
package variable
Variable characteristic
Variable used in the regression 
model
strength of the 
relationship between 
the factor and result-
effective variables
Result-effective variable
GDP (Gross domestic 
product)
Financial incentives for 
innovation activity
Logarithm of the GDP of the Russian 
Federation
1.00
Factor variable
IA (Innovation activity)
Scenario
Assessment of the level of 
innovation activity of companies in 
industrial sectors
0.53
FII (Facilities infrastructure 
for innovation)
Base
Logarithm of the cost of innovative 
facilities infrastructure for 
technological innovation in industry
0.59
FFI (Foreign financing of 
innovation)
Base
Logarithm of the volume of foreign 
financing of industrial innovation 
projects
–0.15
EFI (Employees functioning 
in innovations)
Base
Logarithm of the average number 
of employees of companies 
functioning in industrial sectors 
and implementing technological 
innovation projects
0.79
RD (Research and 
development)
Base
Logarithm of the number of 
industrial companies that have 
invested their funds in R&D 
programs
0.81
IP (Index of production)
Control
Index of industrial production
0.37
IGWS (Innovative goods, 
works, services)
Control
The share of innovative goods, works, 
and services in the total volume of 
shipped industrial products
0.72
SPT (Size of production 
technologies)
Control
Logarithm of the size of developed 
technologies in industrial production
0.82
Source: 
developed by the authors.
S. A. Manshilin, A. F. Leshchinskaya

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