12
Yuri Matsievsky
– the radical phase of revolution comes to an end with the repeated coming to power
of the pragmatic “moderated” who promote the establishment of order in new conditions
(attention is concentrated
on economic problems, instead of on political ones).
Next generations of researchers include representatives of theories of political vio-
lence who wrote their works in the 60s and 70s of the XXth century as well as representa-
tives of the newest “pluralistic” interpretations of revolution whose works appeared at the
end of the 70s and in the 80s of the XXth century [23].
An influential theory of the 60-70s of the XXth century was the psychological theory
of violent forms of social activity offered by American researcher James Davis [24]. He
used two concepts to explain violent actions, namely revolution and revolt though he did
not offer precise definitions of these concepts. The only difference between the two is
that revolution “covers a greater segment of the population than revolt” (rebellion).
When analyzing some classical revolutions, coming to power of fascists in Germany
in 1933 and also Negro and students’ revolts in the 60s
in the XXth century in the USA, J.
Davis offered an interesting hypothesis to explain the reasons for a revolution. According
to J. Davis, revolution is most probable when a long period of growth of expectations and
real satisfaction of needs are replaced with a short period of sharp disappointment during
which the difference between expectations and real opportunities to satisfy the needs in-
creases and becomes intolerable. If dissatisfaction (frustration) is caused by actions of the
government it can express itself in violent actions in the form of a riot. If dissatisfaction
runs to limits and spreads to the whole society then it acquires the features of a revolu-
tion.
For an illustration of his thesis J. Davis used the scheme in which the difference
between the expected pleasure and real opportunities to satisfy the needs reminds the
turned English letter J. Due to the characteristic bend of this letter, J. Davis’s hypothesis
became known as “curve J”. J. Davis’s thesis became an empirically proved alternative to
“natural” explanations of revolutions. The scientist stressed that the probability of social
explosion is the greatest not when the situation for broad masses of the population con-
tinually worsens (that could be observed in Ukraine for a long time) but only when during
a long period their situation improved and then unexpectedly was interrupted by a period
of sharp deterioration. This observation shows that the population demands decrease as
the situation worsens.
J. Davis’s hypothesis well explains the fact that in Ukraine during the whole period of
independence there were no significant protest actions, however, it does not give an op-
portunity to explain mass, non-forced mobilization of a significant part of the population
of Ukraine at the end of 2004.
An alternative explanation of political violence was offered by sociologists. So N.
Smelser asserted that instead of studying mass displeasure scientists should study social
institutions. N. Smelser insisted that when different subsystems of society change at simi-
lar speed, management remains stable. However, when one of subsystems starts to change
irrespective of others, certain disequilibrium is created pushing the population to change
13
“Orange Revolution” in Ukraine: Transitological Interpretation
the system of values. When disequilibrium between regular changes of separate subsys-
tems becomes acute radical ideologies begin to spread undermining the legitimacy of the
current regime. During such aggravations a war, a governmental crisis or famine can lead
to the overthrow of the government [25].
S. Huntington made an attempt to combine psychological and sociological explana-
tions of revolution using the widespread in the 70s of the XXth century theory of mod-
ernization.
S. Huntington claimed that the key aspect of modernization is an increase in demand
for mass political participation. Revolutions, from the point of view of Huntington, do not
happen in traditional societies. Similarly, they do not happen in developed modern societ-
ies. Revolutions have their greatest chance to happen in those societies which have passed
a certain stage of social and economic development, however, their political development
and modernization lag behind the process of social and economic transformations. The
political essence of revolution is fast growth of political consciousness and fast mobiliza-
tion of new groups to make them participants of political actions with the speed that will
not allow existing institutions to satisfy their needs. Huntington identifies two conditions
of revolution. First of all, political institutes are unable to provide for the participation of
new social groups in politics and of new political elites in authority. The second condi-
tion is the desire of social groups excluded from politics to participate in politics with the
goal to gain certain material or other benefits. One group that feels its estrangement from
power can become the reason for revolution, riot or revolt, however, only the unification
of unsatisfied groups can lead to revolution. The possibility of a revolution in a country
in modernization depends on: a) the level of estrangement of the city middle class, e.g.,
intellectuals, professionals, bourgeoisie; b) the level of estrangement of peasants from the
political life and c) the level of unification of the city middle class and peasants not only in
the struggle
against their common enemy, but also for the victory of nationalism [26].
Psychological and system theories of revolution tried to explain why there is dissatis-
faction and under what circumstances it can lead to the violent overthrow of the regime.
British sociologist Charles Tilly criticized this approach.
C. Tilly did not accept the modernization explanation of revolution and offered a
theory of resource mobilization. The scientist paid attention to the fact that dissatisfac-
tion cannot lead to a revolution if unsatisfied population remains unorganized and has
no necessary resources. Asserting that dissatisfaction and conflict are integral components
of politics he emphasized that political violence is possible only when unsatisfied groups
have necessary resources in their possession and are sufficiently organized to pursue their
goals. From this point of view, modernization can cause dissatisfaction; however, it will
not necessarily lead to a revolution.
General theories of revolution were always based on psychological explanations of
relative deprivation and frustration with the account of non-uniformity of institutional
changes and mobilization of resources by counterelites. The above mentioned scientists