75
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Table 30. Monte Carlo Simulation Input Distributions for Metal Prices
Name
Graph
Min
Mean
Max
Std
Dev
5%
50%
95%
p95-
p5
Tin price
(US$/kg)
3.56
8.55
18.52
3.527
3.94
7.95
15.18
11.24
Zinc price
(US$/kg)
0.57
0.97
+∞
0.610
0.65
0.86
1.59
0.94
Data for the distributions consist of 52 observations of average annual metal prices between 1960 and 2011 (World Bank 2012).
The data were fitted in @Risk computer software and selection of the distribution type was based on examining the Chi-Sq
distribution ranking for the corresponding data.
Recoveries reflect latest commercially available technologies when making assumptions regarding recovery efficiency.
Table 31. Main Product Growth and Associated Forecasted Byproduct Indium Production
Medium-Term Primary Indium Refinery Production
Main Product Growth*
CAGR, %
2011
2016
2031
2.0%
731
807
1,199
3.0%
731
847
1,531
Average
731
827
1,365
* Main product CAGR range based on historical zinc production growth between 2007 and 2011 as calculated from USGS
data and estimates for 2012 growth from Willis et al. (2012).
These projected byproduct indium levels, as well as the assumptions listed above, form the basis
for a series of medium-term supply scenarios. Briefly, these are:
•
Base case 2016. This scenario uses the current levels of indium recovery efficiency and
its associated current production (731 tonnes) and forecasts main product expansion and
associated indium expansion until 2016.
•
Base case 2031. This scenario uses current levels of indium recovery efficiency and its
associated current production (731 tonnes) and forecasts main product expansion until
2031.
•
Scenario 1: Base case + improved recovery and pipeline efficiency (2016). This
scenario uses the base case 2016 levels but builds in improved overall pipeline efficiency
described in short-term Scenarios 1 and 2. However, because we are now considering the
medium term, capital costs associated with these efficiency improvements are reflected in
the cost of indium.
•
Scenario 1: Base case + improved recovery and pipeline efficiency (2031). Same as
the scenario in the third bullet, except byproduct indium production has been forecast to
2031.
Figure 31 contains the supply curves for the first two scenarios. Compared with Figure 30, the
cost curves have shifted upward because capital costs are now included. In the medium term the
76
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elasticity of primary indium supply appears high ($350–$450/kg) and inelastic at prices higher
than $800 and lower than ~$275.
Figure 30. Medium-term base case primary indium supply projected to 2016 and 2031
The base case scenarios are self-explanatory, but the derivation of figures for the other two
scenarios that examine improved recovery efficiency require more explanation. As discussed in
the short-term supply curves, recovery inefficiency has two principal causes: (1) indium-bearing
concentrates not being sent to indium-capable smelters; and (2) metallurgical losses through the
recovery process, due possibly to less efficient technologies being used at existing plants,
smelters, and refineries. In deriving the medium-term supply curves, we assume that 100% of
indium-bearing concentrates are sent to indium-capable smelters, which increases 2016 indium
primary production from 827 tonnes to 1,182 tonnes and 2031 primary production from 1,365
tonnes to 1,950 tonnes. These calculations are detailed in Table 32.
Table 32. Medium-Term Indium Supply Scenarios
Recovery Efficiency
(tonnes)
Recovery Efficiency
(%)
Low
Mid
High
Low
Mid
High
Indium contained in mined zinc ores
100
100.0
100
Indium reporting to concentrate
75.0
80.0
85.0
75%
80%
85%
Indium sent to indium-capable smelter
52.5
56.0
59.5
70%
70%
70%
Indium recovered by smelter
47.3
50.4
53.6
90%
90%
90%
Indium recovered by special metal refinery
44.9
47.9
50.9
95%
95%
95%
Overall indium recovery rate
45%
48%
51%
2016
Estimates of indium metal recovered
827
827
827
Equivalent amount of indium “mined”
5,909
4,924
4,221
2031
Estimates of indium metal recovered (2031)
1,365
1,365
1,365
Equivalent amount of indium “mined”
9,749
8,125
6,964
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
U
S$/
kg
of
r
ef
ined
indi
um
m
et
al
pr
oduc
ed
(2011
U
S$)
Annual production
(tonnes of primary indium metal per annum)
Medium-term primary indium supply curves
base case 2016
base case 2031
77
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Scenario 1: Improved Recoveries + All in Concentrates
Make Their Way to Indium-Capable Smelters (2016)
Indium contained in mined zinc ores
5,909
4,924
4,221
Indium reporting to concentrate
4,432
3,939
3,588
75%
80%
85%
Indium sent to indium-capable smelter
4,432
3,939
3,588
100%
100%
100%
Indium recovered by smelter
3,989
3,545
3,229
90%
90%
90%
Indium recovered by special metal refinery
3,789
3,368
3,067
95%
95%
95%
Estimates of indium metal recovered
3,789
3,368
3,067
Overall indium recovery rate
64%
68%
73%
Scenario 1: Improved Recoveries + All in Concentrates
Make Their Way to Indium-Capable Smelters (2031)
Indium contained in mined zinc ores
9,749
8,125
6,964
Indium reporting to concentrate
7,312
6,500
5,919
75%
80%
85%
Indium sent to indium-capable smelter
7,312
6,500
5,919
100%
100%
100%
Indium recovered by smelter
6,581
5,850
5,327
90%
90%
90%
Indium recovered by special metal refinery
6,252
5,557
5,061
95%
95%
95%
Estimates of indium metal recovered
6,252
5,557
5,061
Overall indium recovery rate
64%
68%
73%
We back-calculate mined indium from refined indium and a range of overall recovery efficiencies. From these starting points for
mined indium, we then vary the percentage of indium concentrates sent to indium-capable smelters to calculate the potential
quantity of indium metal recovered.
Highlighted cells in light green show values that have changed from the base cases.
Target recovery efficiencies are based on current technologies and have been taken from feasibility studies.
Examining potential indium supply where pipeline efficiencies are gained yields the primary
indium supply curves depicted in Figure 32 and Figure 33 for 2016 and 2031, respectively. Costs
are kept in 2011 U.S. dollar terms to facilitate comparison across time, though one would expect
costs to rise in nominal terms between 2016 and 2031.
Figure 31. Medium-term primary indium supply (2016)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
U
S
$/
kg
of
r
ef
ined
indi
um
m
et
al
pr
oduc
ed
(2011 U
S
$)
Annual production
(tonnes of primary indium metal per annum)
Medium-term primary indium supply curves (2016)
base case 2016
Scenario 1: Base case + efficiency improvement
78
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Figure 32. Medium-term primary indium supply (2031)
In all these scenarios, we have included supply anticipated to come from known indium projects
identified in Section 4.1, namely: Mount Pleasant, Malku Khota, Pirquitas, Pinquito, and South
Crofty. The La Oroya complex is not included because, as a metallurgical and refinery complex,
we are hesitant to treat La Oroya as “new production” and believe that it may simply reflect a
shift of production.. These are explicitly depicted in Figure 34 to give the reader an idea of where
these deposits might feature competitively and what fraction of primary indium they might
contribute in 2016.
Figure 33. Medium-term primary indium supply (2016), including positioning of
known potential future sources of supply
The costs and quantities for these deposits were determined with a bottom-up approach using
publically available information. A similar approach was to determine the allocation of costs
between indium and other metals at Adex’s Mount Pleasant deposit.
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
U
S
$/
kg of
r
ef
ined i
ndi
um
m
et
al
pr
oduc
ed
(2011 U
S
$)
Annual production
(tonnes of primary indium metal per annum)
Medium-term primary indium supply curves (2031)
base case 2031
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
U
S$
/k
g o
f 4
N
in
di
um
m
et
al
p
ro
du
ce
d
(2
01
1 U
S$
)
Cumulative annual production
(tonnes of primary indium metal per annum)
Medium term primary indium supply (2016)
medium term ~2016
M
t P
le
as
an
t
M
alk
u
K
hot
a
Pir
qu
ita
s
Sout
h C
ro
fty
Pi
ngui
no
79
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Appendix E: Earth Abundance of Various Elements
A
bu
nd
an
ce
(at
om
s
of
el
em
en
t p
er
10
6
a
to
m
s
of
Si
`
Atomic Number, Z
Notes:
Abundance (atom fraction) of the chemical elements in Earth's upper continental crust as a function of atomic number. The
rarest elements in the crust (shown in yellow) are not the heaviest, but are rather the siderophile (iron-loving) elements in the
Goldschmidt classification of elements. These have been depleted by being relocated deeper into the Earth’s core. Their
abundance in meteoroids is higher. Additionally, tellurium and selenium have been depleted from the crust due to formation
of volatile hydrides.
Source: Haxel et al. 2002
Figure 34. Abundance of elements in the Earth’s upper continental crust
as a function of atomic number
Document Outline - Acronyms and Abbreviations
- Executive Summary
- Table of Contents
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Demand
- 3 Supply: A Snapshot of the Present
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 Deposits and Reserves
- 3.3 Mine Production
- 3.4 Smelting and Refining
- 3.5 Processing of Indium-Bearing Ores and Recovery of Indium
- 3.6 Summary of Primary Production
- 3.7 Secondary Production
- 3.8 Total Primary and Secondary Production
- 4 Supply: the Medium-Term Outlook (5–20 years)
- 4.1 Expansion of Zinc (or Other Main Product) Production
- 4.2 Increased Recovery at Existing Facilities
- 4.3 Summary Expansion of Primary Supply
- 4.4 Expansion of Secondary Supply
- 4.5 Summary of Medium-Term Supply
- 5 Supply: The Long Term (Beyond 20 Years)
- References
- Appendix A: Zinc, Copper, and Tin Reserves and Production Estimates
- Appendix B: Secondary Production
- Appendix C. Metal Prices
- Appendix D: Methodology Used To Derive the Short- and Medium-Term Supply Curves
- Appendix E: Earth Abundance of Various Elements
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