Proton and Heavy Ion Therapy: An overview: January 2017
21
The economic analysis of an Australian proton beam facility would need to consider current and
future patient demand. Current patient demand within Australia and New Zealand is entirely
dependent on the accepted range of clinical indications where PBT would be considered superior
to other potential treatments. Until dedicated modelling is undertaken, the potential domestic
demand for this treatment modality is difficult to estimate. As stated previously, the current
indications where the evidence base supports the use of PBT include ocular tumours, tumours
located proximal to the base of skull, including chordoma and chondrosarcomas, primary or
metastatic tumours of the spine where spinal cord tolerance may be exceeded with conventional
treatment, and selected paediatric tumours. The number of Australian and New Zealand patients
with these indications, who would require PBT, remains small. Future patient demand would
increase dramatically if the clinical indications for PBT were widened to include prostate cancer,
however the results of an RCT comparing the use of PBT to photon therapy for prostate cancer will
not be available until at least late 2018. In addition, an economic analysis should consider the
redundancy cost to the health system of existing linear accelerators (LINACs), which may be
underutilised if patients are shifted to treatment with PBT.
Nevertheless, there have been some attempts by ANTSO to ascertain the number of patients
eligible for particle therapy, which are provided for indicative purposes only.
49
The first approach used 2009 Australian cancer incidence data, obtained from the Australian
Cancer Database, adjusted to the 2014 population. Using Australian recommendations on optimal
radiotherapy utilisation rates,
50
and assumed eligibility rates for particle therapy substitution,
potential demand was calculated for nine malignancy indications (Table 6).
This approach estimated that the total number of patients who would be potentially eligible for
particle therapy is estimated to be 3,878 persons, including 203 paediatric patients. At the time,
this patient number was considered by ANTSO as a very high end estimate, due to the challenges
of calculating particle therapy eligibility rates, which would be based on the strength of clinical
evidence, patient clinical need, and the caseload capacity of local facilities. However, it was
provided as a guide to potential demand, and an indicator for longer term future planning.
This modelling suggests Australian particle therapy demand for brain/CNS and ocular malignancy
(as clinical conditions where evidence most supports particle therapy effectiveness) would be 899
patients, including 133 paediatric patients.
Proton and Heavy Ion Therapy: An overview: January 2017
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Table 6
2014 ANTSO estimation of Australian patients eligible for particle therapy using nine indicators
Indication
Incidence in 2014
Candidates for Conventional
Radiotherapy
Candidates for particle
therapy
All patients
Paediatric
patients
All patients
Paediatric
patients
All patients
Paediatric
patients
Brain/CNS
1,773
138
1,418
110
709
110
Head and neck/skull
2,609
16
1,931
12
913
13
Ocular
271
23
271
23
190
23
Lung
6,883
2
5,506
2
619
2
Prostate
20,914
0
12,130
0
837
0
Liver
1,402
19
0
0
70
10
Bone
199
43
0
0
100
43
Uterine Cervix
830
1
589
1
166
1
Pancreas
2,739
1
1,342
0
274
1
Total
37,620
243
23,187
148
3,878
203
The second ANTSO approach was to adopt the projected UK PBT caseload estimates, and apply
demand on a population basis to the 2012 Australian population. In Table 7, a similar demand has
also been calculated for the New Zealand population.
Through this method, ANTSO estimated 534 Australian patients (444 adults and 91 paediatric
cases) as being potential candidates for PBT. A similar calculation for New Zealand results in an
estimated 104 patients (86 adults and 18 children), resulting in a total potential demand of 638
patients for both countries. It should be noted that the UK case mix is viewed as a conservative list
of clinical indications that reflects the UK’s cancer epidemiology and clinical needs. However,
ANTSO considers that they retain a reasonable applicability to Australia, and therefore these
patients would be considered highly eligible for particle therapy when first made locally available.