A trillion‑mile surge
These changes in consumer behavior seem modest, but
small changes in personal travel choices can have a big
impact in the future… and personal miles traveled (PMT)
will soar! As we reported, our focus groups indicate that
the oldest and youngest age groups have an increased
interest in mobility-on-demand services. Based on current
consumer perceptions, we would have expected only small
effects from their increasing use of mobility options.
Our modeling tells us something far more exciting. It turns
out that these small changes among the oldest and youngest
demographic groups will likely produce large increases in
personal miles traveled (PMT) by 2050: approximately 500
billion more PMT annually. Once we factor in population
growth, that increase in personal miles soars to nearly one
trillion additional miles per year.
When we first calculated these figures, we were astonished.
Then we looked at our assumptions and realized that the
number is likely to be far larger. Our figures reflect only the
United States, but the increasing demand for mobility
options will be global. Japan’s more aged population will
produce even greater need for mobility services for its
seniors. China’s population, aging as a result of the one-child
policy, represents a mind-boggling demand for mobility
services only 20 years later than the United States.
The increase in personal miles traveled may seem startling,
but think of it this way: 10 years ago, how many of us would
have predicted that most 10-year-olds would be walking
around with smartphones? We grossly underestimated that
trend. If we don’t watch out, we’ll grossly underestimate
the power of these changes in consumer behavior around
mobility options.
One thing is for sure.
Those additional personal miles traveled offer a golden
opportunity for the auto industry. They represent an
additional trillion miles of new mobility options and the
potential for new business models to satisfy them. This
then increases the pressure for powerful, strategic
innovations to satisfy customer demand.
Small changes in the travel preferences by
different age groups results in large changes in
total personal miles traveled.
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
4.5
4.0
5.5
5.0
3.0
3.5
Tr
ill
io
ns
o
f
m
ile
s
Year
Forecasted PMT based on population growth
Forecasted PMT based on demographic shifts
0.5%
0.8%
CAGR
2014 – 2050
Historical Forecasted
Note: (a) Discounted 25% from U.S. BTS total VMT for 1995, 2001, 2009, 2014
(assumed to be commercial miles), (b) Multiplied by NHTS occupancy rates applied
2009 rate to 2014 numbers.
1995–2050 U.S.
PERSONAL MILES TRAVELED
Source: U.S. BTS data, NHTS data, U.S. Census data, KPMG Analysis
Personal Miles Traveled (PMT)
16
© 2015 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the U.S.A. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered
trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. NDPPS 404853
Large increases in personal miles traveled
can ripple into a trillion more vehicle
miles traveled.
5.0
4.0
7.0
6.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Trillions of miles
Year
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
AVO
0.95
1.2
1.67
2.0
Note: (a) Discounted 25% from U.S. BTS total VMT for 1995, 2001, 2009, 2014 (assumed to be
commercial miles), (b) Multiplied by NHTS occupancy rates applied 2009 rate to 2014 numbers).
1950–2050 U.S.
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
Source: U.S. BTS data, NHTS data, U.S. Census data, KPMG Analysis
Historical Forecasted
Vehicle Miles
Traveled (VMT)
Forecasted VMT,
< 1: More
cars on the
road than people
Forecasted VMT,
= 2: Carpooling and
ride-sharing takes off
Forecasted VMT,
= 1.2: Car can drive
your parents and
take the kids to practice
Forecasted VMT,
status quo occupancy
AVO = 1.67
Impact to vehicle miles
But we didn’t stop there because as it turns out, large
increases in personal miles traveled can ripple into even
larger fluctuations in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). As
younger and older age groups are making small changes in
their mobility decisions, the choices they make affect the
number of average occupants in each vehicle.
At current occupancy rates, if the status quo were
maintained then we’d see an over-trillion-mile surge in VMT.
But, if those occupancy rates were to change—for
example, if more younger or older age groups started to
select new self-driving options—then we could see twice
as much demand. And if we moved into a scenario where
there are more people than cars on the road and
occupancy rates fell below one person per car—for
example, many self-driving cars without passengers—then
the increase could be as large as three to four trillion
additional miles. That is a staggering number, but one that
is not outside the realm of possibility by 2050.
While not all of those miles necessarily translate into
additional cars on the road, it does have the potential to
change trip frequency, vehicle utilization, and ownership
models. Furthermore, those increases will likely have a
profound but unknown impact on vehicle sales, car
ownership models, energy demand, and infrastructure. So
much so that we believe that differences in the desired
mobility experience may drive new tailored missions with
enough underlying demand to influence the car sales down
the road to meet those needs.
The clockspeed dilemma 17
© 2015 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with
KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the U.S.A. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through
complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. NDPPS 404853