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me to think that genuine improvements in our society can result from quantitative research. Work that William Brainard did with Trenery Dolbear on management of life’s risks was a direct precursor to the macro markets that I discuss here. John Geanakoplos’s work on infor- mation and incomplete markets and Martin Shubik’s work on trading systems have also been an influence. Other colleagues at our firm Case Shiller Weiss, Inc., were important to this book. Karl Case helped develop the idea of real estate futures markets. He led me to appreciate the importance of devising good in- dexes for measurement of core concepts and provided the first impetus to this research. Howard Brick, David Costa, Jay Coomes, Neil Krish- naswami, Linda Ladner, Terry Loebs, James Mealey, and others at Case Shiller Weiss, Inc., have also been involved in the discovery process. Allan Weiss and I have founded a second firm, Macro Securities Re- search, LLC, now being led in its early stages by Chief Operating Of- ficer Sam Masucci. Its purpose is to create new risk management vehi- cles. Neil Gordon, Larry Hirshik, Julius Levin, Tom Skinner, and others have been helpful in getting our enterprise started. Our advisory committee, including John Campbell, Franco Modigliani, and Jeremy Siegel, has been helpful as well. Earlier drafts of portions of this book were presented as the Spruill Lecture at the University of North Carolina in February 1998, as a pub- lic lecture at the London School of Economics in November 1998, as the McKenna lecture at St. Vincent College in January 1999, as the Jundt Lecture at Gonzaga University in March 1999, as the Samuel Levin Lecture at Wayne State University in April 2001, as the Kenneth Arrow Lecture at Stanford University in May 2001, as the Henry George lecture at the University of Scranton in September 2001, as an “In the Company of Scholars” lecture at Yale University in January 2002 , as a public lecture at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt in May 2002, at the Finance Seminar at the University of Chicago in Oc- tober 2002, and finally at the Hong Kong Economic Association meet- ings in December 2002. The feedback from people at these various lec- tures has been very helpful. I am indebted to Luiz Abreu, Kenneth Arrow, Aleksander Askeland, Sohrab Behdad, Amar Bhide, Murray Biggs, Michael Boozer, David Bradford, Diane Coyle, David Darst, Brad DeLong, Keith Dengenis, Mohamed El-Erian, Herb Gintis, Nader Habibi, Robert Hall, Henry Hansmann, Robert Hockett, Jeeman Jung, Stephen Kaplan, Michael Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page xiv Krause, Stefan Krieger, David Laster, Gil Mehrez, Felipe Morandé, Stephen Morris, Jessica Paradise, Mats Persson, Andrew Powell, John Quiggin, Tano Santos, Ian Shapiro, Jeremy Stein, Lars Svensson, James Tobin, Robert Townsend, Andrei Ukhov, Salvador Valdés- Prieto, Marek Weretka, and Janet Yellen for helpful comments, discus- sions, and suggestions along the way. Many Yale students have worked with me on this book, including Claudio Aragón Ricciuto, Marlon Castillo, Michael Cheung, Chian Choo, Peter Devine, Peter Fabrizio, Sunil Gottipati, Makiko Harunari, Monali Jhaveri, Fadi Kanaan, Jay Kang, George Korniotis, Lingfeng Li, Adrienne Lo, Junzhao Ma, Nicola Mok, Gaye Mudderisoglu, Patrick Nemeroff, Steven Pawliczek, Michael Pyle, Virginia Raemy, Isabel Re- ichardt, Kira Ryskina, Zaruhi Sahakyan, Philip Shaw, Bjorn Tuypens, Michael Volpe, and Maxine Wolfowitz. I have spent hours talking with most of them about the book, and each of them has individually helped me carry the ideas further with their own thoughts and research. I also owe much gratitude to Carol Copeland, a loyal and dedicated assistant, who has constantly provided help in my research efforts. Glena Ames provided technical assistance in making this book a reality. Most of the research that over my academic career has led to this book was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. For over ten years the Russell Sage Foundation has been supporting the conferences on behavioral economics that Richard Thaler, George Ak- erlof, and I have been organizing, and that have kept me involved with and abreast of some of the latest work on psychology in economics. The Smith Richardson Foundation gave me a research grant specifically for writing this book. My wife Virginia Shiller, a clinical psychologist at the Yale Child Study Center, has been a lifelong inspiration to my work on human be- havior for economics. Her support of my work on this book was ex- ceptional, especially given that she was also writing a book of her own at the same time. She also read the entire manuscript and suggested some fundamental changes. Our sons, Ben and Derek, are now old enough to engage me in intellectual discussions; both have signed on as research assistants and have made their own contributions. I also acknowledge my debt to the many others in the university, business, legal, and government communities who have thought seri- ously about our economic institutions. I have had the pleasure of be- ing in the economics profession for decades and of observing the Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page xv parade of theorists who have presented their models over the years. Lis- tening to them can be frustrating at times. I am tempted sometimes to dismiss much of their work as overly academic and irrelevant. But later, I realize that my thinking has been fundamentally changed by under- standing their models. I have also had the opportunity, with Case Shiller Weiss, Inc., and Macro Securities Research LLC, to observe the financial world as a participant, which has enabled me to watch this im- mense ferment of ideas in action. Hearing excitingly new or different financial ideas proposed is also often frustrating because they often turn out to be very hard to implement. Like pipe dreams, they seem far from reality, which rudely seems to place obstacles in their way. But, again, I recognize later that much of this thinking represents progress that eventually accumulates, over many years, into real and practical finan- cial technology with genuine social utility. Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page xvi Yüklə 1,44 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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