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3.1. Review of scenario literature
Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest in the interface of
government policy-makers and private sector, scenario practitioners and academia.
There is a good recapitulation and evaluation of the scenario literatures by Volkery
and Ribeiro [Volkery, 2009], where impacts and effectiveness of scenario planning on
the environmental policy making is reviewed. Ringland produced two comprehensive
books, “Scenarios in Public Policy, 2002”, and “Scenario Planning Managing for the
future (2
nd
ed.), 2014”, which contain the records of many valuable case studies of
scenario planning employed in the area of public policy making. Some of the records
are contributed by practitioners on the ground.
As Ringland proposes we can establish two categories when sorting the cases for
scenario projects related to
public policy, namely ‘scenarios in public policy’ and
‘scenarios in the public sector’ [Ringland, Scenarios in Public Policy, 2002].
In the world of practitioners the former theme of ‘scenarios in public policy’ has been
developed into a particular school. Here, the scenario planning process is regarded as
a potentially useful tool for changing current societal, public situation into a better
future. It ranges from Kahane [Kahane, 2012] who has been offering scenario
planning to ignite collaboration among different, sometimes hostile parties
4
, to a
campaign of Michel Godet who sees scenario planning (prospective stratégique) as a
normative, constructive movement for creating better future. [Godet, 2004]
5
This
school calls those who involved in the scenario project for clarifying anticipatory
choices and taking actions for the future.
Other practitioners regard scenario planning as a tool for inspiring organizational
learning. This school is heralded by de Geus. [de Geus, 1997] In line with this,
Chermack and van der Merwe clarified the theoretical relation between constructivist
learning and teaching theory, and scenario planning process. [Chermack, 2003] This
school calls those involved for the reflection and re-construction of their mental
model; that is how to make renewed sense of the world. Naturally, for this school
practices focus on how an organization and/or persons can be positively affected and
can bring new things in their recognition after their engagement of the scenario
planning.
As seen, this paper mainly covers Ringland’s category of ‘scenarios in the public
sector’, and tries to discuss, firstly, the functional aspect of scenario projects
4
[Kahane, 2012] argues;
“Transformative scenario planning is a particularly effective away for a
team of actors to generate
collaborative forward movement on complex, stuck, problematic situation.” p.92,
also; “Transformative scenario planning centres on constructing futures for our situation, but it take the
well-established adaptive scenario planning methodology and turns it on its head- so that we construct
scenarios not only to understand the future but also to influence it.” p. XV
5
Particularly for the domain of strategic consultancy, Michel Godet argues;
“There are, of course, future studies containing no clear strategic character for an actor as well as
strategic analysis of firms or sectors whose interest in the future is embryonic or even nonexistent, For
the sake of clarity, the expression “strategic prospective” will, therefore, be reserves for futures studies
having strategic ambitions and end points for those understanding them.” The Art of Scenarios and
Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 (2000), 3-22,
Elsevier Science Inc.
14
employed by the government officialdom, and secondly, its individual and
organizational learning through the experience of scenario projects.
In this context, the key question I would define is what sort of roles and functions
scenario projects has been expected by the public servants ?
In the following in order to highlight the unique character of the public organization, I
sometimes refer to the scenario projects done by private entities.
In general, scenario projects for the public sector are to contribute to support better
policy making. Howlett and Ramesh argues that there are five stages in policy
making process, i.e. first, policy issue identification, second, policy issue-framing and
agenda-setting, third, policy measure development, fourth, policy measure
implementation and then fifth, policy measure effectiveness assessment or policy
termination [Howlett, 2005].
Here, referring to Howlett’s work, a useful framework is proposed by Volkery and
Ribeiro [Volkery, 2009] concerning the different functions of scenario planning in
order to support the government policy making along with its different stages (Figure
4.). Volkery suggests followings; first, the indirect form of scenario based decision
support is useful for the early stage of policy making. Because in this stage, public
servants have to and are willing to explore alternative policy options widest possible.
Novel ideas or criticism from the range of stakeholders will be welcomed in order to
buy-in their engagement. Another suggestion of Volkery is that in the latter stage of
policy making process, decision support activity may take more direct form such as
framing decision-making agenda and option generation for further actions. Here, the
policy making process often encounters the political debates where different interests
crush seeking for compromise. This is the stage that logical and analytical discussion
may not work. Serious political and administrative process dominates, and
opportunities for wider participation of stakeholders become limited.
Figure 4. Forms of scenario-based decision support