I want a guy like Putin

• “I want a guy like Putin” – a Russian pop song, 2004: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9gqQnAvYn4&feature=related

In 1989-91, Russia experienced a democratic revolution – and democracy began to suffer soon afterwards

• In 1989-91, Russia experienced a democratic revolution – and democracy began to suffer soon afterwards

• The leaders of the new Russian state, which emerged from the ruins of the USSR,

• wanted capitalism more than democracy

• They were deeply unsure of their ability to keep power while they plundered the public assets of the Soviet state

• Democracy worked for them to the extent that it enabled them to dismantle the Soviet system

• But it became a threat to their interests once they began to rule

• Since 1993, they steadily moved to limit and undermine Russian democracy – all the while declaring their commitment to it

• By the 2000s, the idea of democracy was discredited

• 1999

• The end of Russia’s Liberal Decade

• Results

• A highly inefficient model of capitalism
• A badly damaged, fragmented society
• A disorganized state privatized by the bureaucrats
• Extreme insecurity:
• Of the state
• Of the elites
• Of society

• Real possibility of a regime collapse

• And of a state collapse

• Political opposition to the Yeltsin regime was gaining momentum, real chance to take power through 1999-2000 elections

• The Second Chechen War becomes the turning point

• Spread of insurgency beyond Chechnya – to Dagestan

• Putin is appointed Prime Minister

• Offers wartime leadership

• Appeals to the Russian battle order

The political turnaround

• The political turnaround

• Consolidation of elites behind Putin:

• the Kremlin (the Family)
• key groups of the business elite,
• bureaucracy,
• the army
• the security services

• give him support as the figure seemingly capable of “saving Russia” from a catastrophe

• Parliamentary election of 1999 – the new “party of power” representing this coalition wins a plurality of seats in the parliament

• December 31, 1999 – Yeltsin resigns, appoints Putin Acting President

• Presidential election of 2000 – Putin is elected President

• Putin’s gains from Global War on Terror

• Put Chechnya in a global context favorable to Moscow

• US and Russia fighting the same enemy

• America got bogged down in Iraq, which reduced its capacity to advance on Russia’s interests

• Russia’s opposition to the Iraq war improved Russia’s standing in the Muslim world

• Oil prices surged, driving Russian economic recovery

• Rebuilding “the vertical of power”

• Reduce the influence of the oligarchs on media and politics

• Reduce the power of regional leaders (governors, presidents of Russia’s republics)

• Increase the power and role of siloviki (the Enforcers) in the Russian state

• “KGB Inc.”, “Neo-nobility”

• Putin’s “Neo-Nobles”: KGB, Inc.

• Putin’s Neoliberals

• The Kremlin vs. the oligarchs

• No populist drive to sack the oligarchs – and they have continued to prosper

• But their influence on the state has been significantly reduced

• Stick and carrot

• The Kremlin now controls “commanding heights”: big business is allowed to function at the discretion of the top political authority – no challenges to the Kremlin are allowed

• Redistribution of property

• Putin’s Oligarchs

• Market authoritarianism

• Economic policy: continued neoliberal reforms, with some modifications

• Politics: restoration of state capacity through centralization of political authority and increase of state control over society

• Under Putin, the Kremlin regained part of the power it had lost since Gorbachev’s reforms

• The President vs. regional governments

• In 2000 - creation of 7 presidential districts to incorporate the 89 regions of Russia

• Since 2004 – top regional executives (governors, republic presidents, etc.) are no longer elected by voters. They are appointed by the President and confirmed by regional legislatures

• The President vs. the parliament

• Legacy of Yeltsin: an overwhelming Presidency

• Under Putin, the growth of the “party of power” (United Russia) put the parliament under firm control of the Kremlin

• The upper chamber (Federation Council) is no longer composed of elected representatives

• Elections

• Eliminating the mixed proportional-majoritarian system in favour of proportional representation only

• Raising the threshold of party representation (6% of the total)

• Use of “the administrative resources”

• Control of the media

• Control of the media

• Under Yeltsin, the media was largely independent of the government (while falling under oligarch control)

• Putin moved to re-establish varying degrees of government control over key media organizations – both public and private (mostly through Kremlin-friendly corporations)

• Not a return to Soviet-era censorship, but a significant setback for the cause of democracy

• The economic recovery

• Robust economic growth since 2000

• Achieved through:

• Liberal incentives to the private sector

• Political stabilization

• High oil and gas prices

• Steady improvement of the public finance

• Rise of wages, pensions, incomes

• 1998: US National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2010:

• “During the Cold War Russia’s capabilities were measured in terms of military power. Looking out to 2010, these capabilities will be measured more in terms of economic resources. We believe Russia will remain economically weak through 2010 and beyond.”

• http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html#russia

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• National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2025, unveiled in October 2008, describes Russia in very different terms — as one of four rising centers of international power: “In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way — roughly from West to East — is without precedent in modern history . . . . No other countries are projected to rise to the level of China, India, or Russia, and none is likely to match their individual global clout. . . . Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050.”

• “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”. Washington: National Intelligence Council, November 2008 - http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html , pp. vi, vii

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• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQGa6YAXVSU

• The boom fuelled the politics of conservatism

• “Stability” as the key value

• Financial resources available to the Kremlin

• Putin’s elite

• Bureaucracy

• The people

• Distrust the govt, trust Putin

• Yearn for improvement of material conditions

• Resent the injustice

• The growing middle class

• The Putin Cult

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-bW80i0e1w

• Opinion polls, 2006-07

• Are things in the country moving in the right direction?

• 36% - Yes

• 49% - No

• Are you confident about the future?

• 52% - No

• 20% - Not much

• 25% - Yes

• Your family’s economic situation?

• 7% - good/very good

• 40% - average

• 31% - bad

• Political situation in the country?

• 4% - favourable

• 26% - calm

• 46% - tense

• 7% - critical, explosive

• Life in general

• Not so bad, life is normal – 21%

• It’s hard, but one can live – 46%

• It’s so bad that it is no longer bearable – 29%

• “To live normally” – 12,000 Rb a person a month ($400)

• “Minimum to survive” – 5,800 Rb ($150)

• “Poor” – 320 Rb ($11)

• Real median income – 3,300 Rb ($110) a month

• .

• How likely are mass demonstrations in your area against deterioration of economic conditions, in defence of people’s rights?

• 37% - quite possible

• 48% - unlikely

• Will you take part?

• 26% - most likely yes

• 62% - most likely no

• Are demonstrations with political demands possible in your area?

• 24% - yes

• 58% - no