Naval postgraduate school monterey, california thesis

2.
 
Biorhythm 
Intelligence, Surprise + Deception, Operator’s Skill for Hostage Taker
Intelligence, Surprise + Deception, Operator’s Skill for Rescue Force
Mission
Success
Mission
Failure
St
ar
t o
f C
ris
is
St
ar
t o
f C
ris
is
Time
(days)
50% 
50% 
probability 
probability 
of success
of success
13 Oct 1977: Lufthansa fl ight 
13 O ct 1977: Lufthansa flight 
LH
LH
-
-
181 hijacked by four 
181 hi jacked by four 
terrorists of PFLP
terrori sts of PFLP
-
-
SO G
SOG
2
2
0 1 2 3
4 5 6
Land a t Rome’s 
Leonardo da Vinci 
air por t at 1545hrs 
to refuel 
Ter rorists issue 
demands
Land a t 0152hrs 
the next morning 
in Bahr ain 
16 Oct 77, take off 40 
minutes before the fi rst 
deadline for bl owing it up. 
Arr ived over Aden ai rport i n 
Sou th Yemen 
Pilot Jur gen 
Schumann is 
shot dead
New deadli ne to 0145 
hour s on the morning of 
18 Oct 77 
At 020 5hrs Somal i 
troops start 
diversi onary fire 
At 0130hrs G SG -9 i s 
located on ladders 
r eady to assaul t the 
door to the cockpi t
At 0207hrs GSG-9 
assaults aircraft with stun 
gr enades and rapid and 
accurate firi ng
At 021 2hrs GSG-9 has 
secured the aircraft; all 
hosta ges are safe, three 
ter rorists are dead and 
one is injured. No GSG-
9 casualti es. 
HIT
GSG-9 is 
aler ted; 2 SAS 
advisor s joi n 
team
Figure 45.
Author’s Representation of Operation FIRE MAGIC’s Biorhythm 

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171 
X. CONCLUSIONS 
A. 
HOSTAGE RESCUE IN GWOT 
During the last thirty years international hostage taking has transformed itself 
from an era of hijackings in the early 1970’s, to the rise of Islamic extremism in the 
1980’s with embassy sieges, to the 1990’s with the advent of narco-terrorism. Today, 
and during the most recent war in Iraq—Operation IRAQI FREEDOM—radical terrorist 
organizations are using hostage taking as the coercive weapon of choice, trying to level 
the playing field against coalition forces. Terrorists are kidnapping civilian workers and 
soldiers alike, beheading them for the world to see on national television. Their demands 
are simple—stop supporting the war and leave Iraq. Their intent is to persuade countries 
supporting coalition forces to leave Iraq and destroy national will. In Game Theory 
terms, it is a game of chicken against an opponent that parks his vehicle in the middle of 
the road and walks away. Only when the hostage taker’s location is known, can we apply 
the waiting game and track the biorhythm model. Otherwise, it is a race against time to 
try to find the hostage/s before they are executed. To counter this tactic, counterterrorist 
forces must rely heavily on a robust intelligence network that can provide actionable 
intelligence, pin pointing the exact location of the hostage takers, and destroy them 
immediately. Simultaneously, diplomatic and informational levels of national power 
should focus on a theme that seems to devalue the hostage, preventing the “theater of 
terror” effect from rising, while at the same time allowing the military arm to pursue 
these terrorists aggressively. Giving in to terrorist demands encourages more acts of 
terror, strengthens the terrorist’s agenda, and reinforces that their strategy works.