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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- Part One: Economic Risks in an Advancing World
- Part Two: How Science and Technology Create New Opportunities in Finance
- Part Three: Six Ideas for a New Financial Order
- Part Four: Deploying the New Financial Order
- Part Five: The New Financial Order as a Continuation of a Historical Process
| Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page ii The New Financial Order r i s k i n t h e 2 1 s t c e n t u r y Robert J. Shiller Princeton University Press . Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page iii Copyright © 2003 by Robert J. Shiller Published by Princeton University Press 41 William Street Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press 3 Market Place Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1SY All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shiller, Robert J. The new financial order : risk in the 21st century / Robert J. Shiller. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-691-09172-2 (alk. paper) 1 . Risk management. 2 . Information technology. I. Title. HD61 .S55 2003 368 —dc21 2002042563 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available Book design by Dean Bornstein This book has been composed in Adobe Galliard and Formata by Princeton Editorial Associates, Inc., Scottsdale, Arizona Printed on acid-free paper. ∞ www.pupress.princeton.edu Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page iv I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favor to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all. —Ecclesiastes 9:11 Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page v Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page vi Contents Preface ix Acknowledgments xiii introduction The Promise of Economic Security 1 Part One: Economic Risks in an Advancing World one What the World Might Have Looked Like since 1950 21 two The Hidden Problem of Economic Risk 32 three Why New Technology Creates Risks 46 four Forty Thieves: The Many Kinds of Economic Risks 58 Part Two: How Science and Technology Create New Opportunities in Finance five New Information Technology Applied to Risk Management 69 six The Science of Psychology Applied to Risk Management 82 seven The Nature of Invention in Finance 99 Part Three: Six Ideas for a New Financial Order eight Insurance for Livelihoods and Home Values 107 nine Macro Markets: Trading the Biggest Risks 121 ten Income-Linked Loans: Reducing the Risks of Hardship and Bankruptcy 139 eleven Inequality Insurance: Protecting the Distribution of Income 149 twelve Intergenerational Social Security: Sharing Risks between Young and Old 165 thirteen International Agreements for Risk Control 175 Part Four: Deploying the New Financial Order fourteen Global Risk Information Databases 189 Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page vii fifteen New Units of Measurement and Electronic Money 202 sixteen Making the Ideas Work: Research and Advocacy 222 Part Five: The New Financial Order as a Continuation of a Historical Process seventeen Lessons from Major Financial Inventions 231 eighteen Lessons from Major Social Insurance Inventions 245 epilogue A Model of Radical Financial Innovation 269 Notes 277 References 325 Index 351 Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page viii Preface Economic gains achieved through technological progress do not them- selves guarantee that more people will lead good lives. Just as enor- mous economic insecurity and income inequality pervade the world to- day, worsening conditions can develop even as technological advances mark greater levels of economic achievement. But new risk manage- ment ideas can enable us to manage a vast array of risks—those present and future, near and far—and to limit the downside effects of capital- ism’s “creative destruction.” Application of these ideas will not only help reduce downside risks, but it will also permit more positive risk- taking behavior, thereby engendering a more varied and ultimately more inspiring world. The New Financial Order proposes a radically new risk management infrastructure to help secure the wealth of nations: to preserve the bil- lions of minor—and not so minor—economic gains that sustain people around the world. Most of these gains seldom make the news or even evoke much public discussion, but they can enrich hard-won economic security and without them any semblance of progress is lost. By radi- cally changing our basic institutions and approach to management of all these risks both large and small we can do far more to improve our lives and our society than through piecemeal tinkering. Just as modern systems of insurance protect people against cata- strophic risks in their lives, this new infrastructure would utilize fi- nancial inventions that protect people against systemic risks: from job loss because of changing technologies to threats to home and com- munity because of changing economic conditions. If successfully implemented, this newly proposed financial infra- structure would enable people to pursue their dreams with greater con- fidence than they can under existing modes of risk management. With- out such a means to greater security, it will be difficult for young people, whose ideas and skills represent the raw materials for a growth- oriented information society, to take the risks necessary to convert their intellectual energies into useful goods and services for society. Historically, economic thinkers have been limited by the state of rel- evant risk management principles of their day. Recent advances in finan- Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page ix Yüklə 1,44 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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