Why we need enso ensemble forecast？

Why we need ENSO ensemble forecast？

• Why we need ENSO ensemble forecast？

• Deterministic V.S. Ensemble

• The model performance (Hindcast and forecast)

• The ENSO model: what it has and what it misses

• Sampling the model errors and building the model-error model stochastically

• Improving the ensemble-mean forecast skills / ensemble mean dynamics

• Alleviating the effects of Spring Prediction Barrier in a probabilistic sense

• Summary

Why we need ENSO ensemble forecast？

• Why we need ENSO ensemble forecast？

• The ENSO model: what it has and what it misses

• Sampling the model errors and building the model-error model stochastically

• Improving the ensemble-mean forecast skills / ensemble mean dynamics

• Alleviating the effects of Spring Prediction Barrier in a probabilistic sense

• Summary

Why we need ENSO ensemble forecast？

• Why we need ENSO ensemble forecast？

• The ENSO model: what it has and what it misses

• Sampling the model errors and building the model-error model stochastically

• Improving the ensemble-mean forecast skills / ensemble mean dynamics

• Alleviating the effects of Spring Prediction Barrier in a probabilistic sense

• Summary

Why we need ENSO ensemble forecast？

• Why we need ENSO ensemble forecast？

• The ENSO model: what it has and what it misses

• Sampling the model errors and building the model-error model stochastically

• Improving the ensemble-mean forecast skills / ensemble mean dynamics

• Alleviating the effects of Spring Prediction Barrier in a probabilistic sense

• Summary