Nrdc: Norfolk, Virginia-Identifying and Becoming More Resilient to Impacts of Climate Change (pdf)

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Michelle Mehta 

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Norfolk, Virginia: 

Identifying and 

Becoming More 

Resilient to Impacts  

of Climate Change

NRDC: Norfolk, Virginia-Identifying and Becoming More Resilient to Impacts of Climate 

Change (PDF)

For more 

information,

please 

contact:

www.nrdc.org/policy

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Norfolk and other areas in the Hampton Roads section of 

the lower Chesapeake Bay have garnered recent attention 

for flooding associated with a relatively rapid rate of sea 

level rise and land subsidence. These impacts put the vast 

infrastructure—including important naval bases—at risk. 

Based on climate research studying sea level rise and other 

impacts, we know Norfolk is vulnerable to:

Cities across the United States should anticipate significant water-related vulnerabilities based on current 

carbon emission trends because of climate change, ranging from water shortages to more intense storms 

and floods to sea level rise. To help cities become more resilient to the rising threats of climate change, 

NRDC reviewed more than 75 scientific studies and other reports to summarize the water-related 

vulnerabilities in 12 cities—including Norfolk. Although there may still be some uncertainty about what 

particular impacts threaten cities and how quickly or severely they might occur, action at the local level 

is the most effective method of reducing, mitigating, and preventing the negative effects of water-related 

climate change outlined in this fact sheet. NRDC urges cities to prepare for coming challenges relating 

to water resources. Fortunately, there are steps cities are already taking to become more resilient.

Water facts

© Wiki user Conk 9

Highly likely 

Likely 

Possible

Source: NRDC

Summary of water-related climate changes and impacts in 

Norfolk throughout the 21st century 

Rising sea levels 

Increased flooding

Increased annual precipitation

More frequent and intense storm events

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sea LeveL rise and 

coastaL fLooding

The rate of annual sea level 

rise measured at Sewells Point 

in Norfolk is the highest of all 

stations along the U.S. East 

Coast—nearly 4.5 millimeters 

per year. Relative sea level 

in Norfolk has steadily risen 

14.5 inches (0.37 meter) 

over the past 80 years and 

is projected to increase by 

another 1.3 to 5.2 feet (0.39 

to 1.6 meters) by 2100. The 

land in Norfolk and the 

rest of Hampton Roads is 

subsiding for a combination 

of reasons, exacerbating the 

effect of sea level rise. Further, most of the city of Norfolk is 

at an elevation of only 5 meters or less with a very shallow 

slope, therefore flooding from sea level rise is likely to be 

a priority issue for the city in the 21st century. Indeed, 

according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation 

and Development, the Norfolk–Virginia Beach metropolitan 

area ranks 10th in the world in the value of assets exposed to 

increase flooding from sea level rise. 

PreciPitation and storM events  

and fLooding

Under both higher and lower emissions scenarios, an increase 

in both the overall annual precipitation and precipitation 

intensity is projected throughout the 21st century. Increased 

storm intensity will also affect storm surges in the area. The 

combination of storm surges and sea level rise is expected to 

lead to significant flooding by tropical storms and nor’easters 

that did not cause significant flooding in the past. For 

instance, Hurricane Isabel caused as much damage as the 

“storm of the century” 1933 Chesapeake- Potomac Hurricane 

had 70 years earlier, despite the fact that Isabel’s storm surge 

was almost 2 feet (0.6 meter) lower.More intense rainfall 

could also have water quality impacts such as increased 

runoff, which elevates bacteria and algae levels. 

navaL iMPacts

Norfolk’s economy relies heavily on maritime industries; 

the U.S. Navy provided direct economic impact of more 

than $14.6 billion in the Hampton Roads region in 2008. 

Norfolk is home to three major Navy facilities, as well as 

the Port of Virginia’s Norfolk International Terminal. All 

of these facilities are vulnerable to storm surge flooding. 

Temporary work stoppages or permanent transfer of these 

facilities because of flood damage could have a ripple effect on 

Norfolk’s economy. 

increased teMPerature

Multi-model projections of annual average temperature 

suggest an increase of 3.1° to 3.8°F (1.7° to 2.1°C) for 

the Chesapeake Bay area by 2050, and 3.6° to 9°F (2° to 

5 °C) of warming by 2100. The combination of increased 

nutrient pollution of Chesapeake Bay waters from more 

frequent rainfall events, higher dissolved carbon dioxide 

concentrations, and higher temperatures will lead to more 

frequent and intense blooms of algae. 

action

While Norfolk does not have a comprehensive plan for 

addressing climate change impacts, the city is currently 

working on an update to its general plan, plaNorfolk 2030, 

which will include climate change impact considerations 

such as sea level changes. To date, Norfolk’s flood mitigation 

work has largely been composed of ad hoc response strategies 

and minor improvements to and maintenance of the city’s 

60-year-old drainage system, which was originally designed 

to handle smaller storms than what it is now handling. 

Moving forward, the city has taken the bold step of hiring 

the Dutch coastal engineering firm, Fugro, to conduct a 

citywide flood vulnerability analysis that will be used to 

enhance the city’s current flood mitigation program and 

inform the development of a robust, cost-effective program 

for the future. The city will utilize the flood forecast model to 

evaluate the costs associated with implementing various flood 

mitigation mechanisms and the economic damages avoided 

by installing these mechanisms. 

  Printed on recycled paper 

© Natural Resources Defense Council  July 2011 

www.nrdc.org/policy

Source: NOAA

Historic sea level rise at Sewells Point, Norfolk, Virginia, 1927–2006 

0.60

0.45

0.30

0.15

00.0

-0.15

-0.30

-0.45

-0.60

Meters

1900 

1910 

1920 

1930 

1940 

1950 

1960 

1970 

1980 

1990 

2000 

2010

Data with the average seasonal 

cycle removed

Higher 95% confidence interval

Linear mean sea level trend

Lower 95% confidence interval