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April 22nd-28th 2023 Ukraine’s game planThe EconomistRainy-day
funds needed
F
loods are
the most expensive type of
natural disaster in America, causing at
least $323bn in direct damage since 1960
after accounting for inflation. Unlike other
types of risks, private insurers generally do
not offer residential coverage for floods.
To fill this void, Congress set up the Na
tional Flood Insurance Programme (
nfip
).
Homeowners in “100year floodplains”,
where regulators reckon that the chance of
flooding each year is at least 1%, can get
governmentbacked mortgages only if they
are insured. But on average, the amount of
money that the
nfip
collects in premiums
each year is less than the amount it has to
pay out, so it has to borrow, thus passing
the bill on to the government: in 2017 Con
gress forgave $16bn of the
nfip
’s debt.
Moreover, the
nfip
’s payouts are less than
the total amount of damage caused by
floods. The shortfall is paid by uninsured
homeowners, and by those whose damag
es exceed the
nfip
’s maximum claim size.
In 21 of the 50 states, sellers of homes do
not have to disclose past damages or future
risks from floods. Moreover, even if buyers
are informed, they often fail to discount
their offers sufficiently. The combination
of subsidised insurance and myopic buyer
behaviour means that houses in flood
prone areas are overpriced. One study in
2021 estimated this overvaluation at
$33bn56bn. But a new paper in
Nature Cli-
mate Change
, whose lead author is Jesse
Gourevitch of the Environmental Defence
Fund, an advocacy group, puts it at $121bn
237bn, with a central estimate of $187bn.
The difference stems from assessments
of flood risk. The earlier figures relied on
the
nfip
’s historical premiums, which take
little account of risks from heavy rain or
along small waterways, and do not factor
in climate change. In contrast, the new
study is based on maps produced by First
Street Foundation, a research group, which
add up the risks from all potential causes
of flooding in a warming world. It finds
that at least 6.9m American homes are
overpriced because of expected flood dam
ages, with 1.2m overvalued by at least 10%
and 660,000 by more than 25%.
In total dollars, overpricing is greatest
in posh bits of coastline, such as Los Ange
les and parts of South Carolina’s Lowcoun
try. Florida, where 66cm of rain submerged
Fort Lauderdale’s airport on April 12th, ac
counts for $50bn of overvaluation by itself.
But as a share of home values, the risk is
greatest in rural, inland regions. In parts of
Appalachia, New England and Montana,
the median property is 3050% overvalued.
Many of these areas lack tunnels and pipes
to channel water from storms, meaning
that heavy rains can cause flash floods in
rivers, creeks and streams, particularly at
the bases of mountains. Last July down
pours in Kentucky produced floods that
swept houses away and killed 39 people.
On current trends, this housing bubble
is likely to feed on itself. The higher the
prices that homes in risky areas sell for, the
more incentive developers have to build in
those regions. The most efficient way to
stop flooding from popping this bubble is
for premiums to start reflecting expected
damages. That might entail carving out a
bigger role for private insurers, which left
the business after the Great Mississippi
Flood of 1927 led to large losses.
The
nfip
has taken a first step with a
new premiumsetting system, based on
frequencies and types of flooding, distan
ces to water sources and property values.
However, federal law limits how much pre
miums can rise. Faster increases would
saddle homeowners in floodprone re
gions with higher expenses and falling
house prices. It would also deprive local
governments that depend on property tax
es, in areas as diverse as Idaho and the rural
northeast, of crucial revenue. But main
taining the status quo means that taxpay
ers elsewhere will keep footing the bill.
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