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4.
Struggling with getting precise data? This is what we call ‘appropriate Imprecision’ (EMMATKp107)
EMMA cannot achieve the same sort of statistical accuracy as large surveys. For example, suppose 20 people tell
you how much they spend on rice each month. Their answers (averaged) will represent the wider population with
only limited accuracy – perhaps plus or minus 10 per cent, at best. Therefore, it is misleading to state the result
like this: ‘average spend = Rs. 72.30‘. It is too precise. A more correct finding would be ‘average spend is in the
range Rs 60–80’. If the sample is smaller (e.g. 10 people), the precision of findings will be even less: perhaps only
plus or minus 30 per cent. Therefore, instead of large samples, assume that findings are only very approximate,
and try to cross-check (triangulate) them against other sources of information. Therefore in EMMA:
Do not waste time trying to get very precise answers to quantitative questions.
Do not use misleadingly precise results in your analysis.
5.
Guidance on quantification and putting numbers onto maps (EMMATKp120 Sec6.4) (ANNEX Step 4,5,6)
EMMA results will be more informative and persuasive if you can collect some basic numbers to support your
analysis and recommendations. The data that you compile here will be used later – in Step 8 especially.
Beware – 2 notes of caution:
It is often difficult and time-consuming to get accurate and reliable data about baseline market systems in a
sudden-onset emergency situation. The results of quantitative analysis may not always justify the effort, skills,
and time involved. You will have to make this decision during the field work process.
Unless you have very solid evidence, assume that your data are imprecise and uncertain. If you interviewed
only two or three traders, it would be better to give an approximate estimate (e.g. 100–150 tonnes) than to
record an apparently accurate but actually very uncertain number (e.g. 137.5 tonnes).
Therefore, in practice, EMMA must compromise by focusing on only a few key pieces of data. Do not let the
collection and analysis of quantitative data lead to neglect of more useful qualitative information.
6.
The most useful quantitative data for EMMA to focus on are the following:
numbers of market actors – at each step in the value / supply chain; (EMMATKp121)
prices of items – at key transaction points; (EMMATKp122)
volumes (quantities) – of goods or services produced and traded. (EMMATKp122)
availability of stock now and lead time required to re-stock – Treat people’s responses cautiously as
traders may exaggerate how quickly they can obtain supplies (EMMATKp124)
7.
Seasonal calendars (EMMATKp126) are not just limited to livelihoods.
Seasonal calendars are most obvious in agricultural market systems. However, seasonal patterns also feature in
just about every single market system as prices, supply and demand may change based on weather, holiday, or
other predictable patterns (for example shelter-related markets, off-farm activities that are affected by weather
or road access, labour markets based on migratory workers, tourism-linked market systems which spike during
travel ‘season’, etc.). There is often a strong gender-related dimension to these patterns, as the roles and
responsibilities of women and men differ. These need to be understood, since emergencies typically have
different impacts on women’s and men’s time.
It is essential that EMMA users are able to distinguish ‘normal’ seasonal fluctuations in prices and trade volumes
from the disruptions created by an emergency situation. Otherwise, your diagnosis of market-system problems
and proposed solutions will be flawed. The baseline market map should represent a ‘seasonally relevant’ picture.
It is a good idea, to construct a simple seasonal calendar for each market system analysed, to capture the ‘normal’
seasonal patterns of price and trade. This can also be used to describe other important features of the system
which may be relevant to the humanitarian response. (Box 3.11, ANNEX EMMA Introduction (EMMATKp72))
Field based advice:
o
It is important to keep in mind the cash feasibility aspect – of course market analysis is essential for all
responses, in kind as well as cash based. Some guidance questions that can also be asked in the initial sector
assessment is in ANNEX Step 4,5,6 (EMMATKp85 Box 4.2)
o
Do not underestimate the role of people providing transportation services as they can: (a) provide key data
on the movement of items (volumes, frequencies, warehousing, costs etc.) and, (b) allow cross referencing of
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data. Keep in mind also that some traders will also have a transportation service attached to their business
(see Chad case study example below).
o
Key informants – the EMMA process is faster and more reliable if you get the chance to speak to people who
know the context and the market you are investigating. It is worth spending the time to find good key
informants and if possible having focus group discussion with them and get them mapping too if you can.
o
Having daily feedback sessions after field work is essential. These sessions can help to keep the field team on
the same analytical page, keep them motivated and also helps to identify any missing data or key questions
that need to be answered with the next day’s field work and interviews. It is essential to wait until you have
all team members present before starting the de-briefing sessions or updating the maps as one team member
could have vital information that could alter the maps. Where more than one language is spoken in the team,
insist on one language being spoken at a time. One team member (or group if they had the same task) should
debrief at a time with the others listening. (See EMMATK p106)
The daily debriefs should include:
-
Problems/ challenges faced in the field work and potential solutions,
-
An update of the baseline and emergency maps to capture the team’s findings,
-
Preliminary response analysis, looking at the possible response options and what they would involve
(in essence the initial phases of the feasibility study),
-
A review of plans for the following day,
-
A review of interview questionnaire and/or semi-structured interview checklist content to ensure that
‘current’ thinking is included.
o
Trader coping mechanisms are poorly understood and often overlooked. Agencies tend to focus their
attention on the coping mechanisms of the households and not the traders – and yet,
they are equally
important especially when considering expandability of the traders capacity to respond
o
Do not forget or be scared to ask traders about their ability to expand their business! Traders are business
men and will be thinking about this already, and, your potential response options may depend on the traders’
capacity to scale-up their stock or service delivery in order to meet the needs of target population. It is a
good idea to ask traders’ about their readiness, willingness or potential constraints to manage the different
response options that you are considering. Be open and ask them for advice, they may have good ideas that
could be used.
o
Hidden seasonal market actors! Some NGOs / government institutions can be big market players but quite
hidden as they may act seasonally. So remind your key informants of the timeframes you are talking about.
Case Study examples:
o
Complex emergencies – which disaster is having a larger impact on the markets? In Sudan (2010), border
closure was more significant than IDP movement.
In complex emergencies where there could be more than one contributing factor to changes in market
behaviour, ask traders, other market actors and key informants for their opinion on (a) the influences on the
markets, (b) which are most significant and (c) their duration. This is essential for forecasting market
behaviour and identifying feasible responses.
o
Chad and the role of transportation service providers – In Chad, transporters are organized in a Union and
own their vehicles. Transport can be their sole activity but some big traders (or wholesalers) can be also
transporters and use their trucks for their own activity and sometimes for other traders. Their role is to supply
areas with a high demand with basic commodities (including but not exclusively cereals), and thus play a vital
role for supplying remote areas. The transport market system was not studies separately but the EMMA team
identified actors who were involved in the transport of cereals as service to the critical market selected.
Transport can be seen as ‘only’ a service and can be considered (by the assessment team) as less important
than meeting traders and overlooked. Understanding the transport sector in Chad was critical to the EMMA,
as we managed to evaluate volumes of cereals imported in our area of intervention counting the number of
trucks according to the seasonal /scenarios change (through meetings with the union's leader and one or two
other truck owners). It allowed us also to triangulate our data (for example, what wholesalers were having in
stocks and trading) and understand transport's but also local or regional policies' constraints for the critical
market systems (taxes, security issues etc.).