Financial Futures of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant: Findings from a rand corporation Workshop
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- Will ISIL Be Able to Weather the Storm Financially
- Bibliography
Current State of ISIL’s Finances 33 In addition, the United States and Iraq established the Bilateral Commission to Counter Terrorist Financing, focused on information and intelligence exchanges, the United States has sanctioned 30 ISIL-linked senior leaders, financiers, foreign terrorist fighter facilitators, and ISIL branches, and the United Nations passed UNSCR 2253, which builds upon the exist- ing al-Qa’ida sanctions regime and seeks to cement multilateral cooperation to counter ISIL financing.
ISIL is resilient – some might say regenerative. 39 Its ability to mitigate the current onslaught of coalition efforts geared toward countering its ability to raise revenue is directly related to several factors. First, ISIL maintains a penchant for retaining technical expertise from previous government and private sector regimes (the corporate oil structures established by Abu Sayyaf have remained largely intact), promotes limited state ownership of industry beyond regula- tory and taxation roles, and boasts an ability to balance expenditures and revenues (debits and credits). 40 At various points, however, ISIL has controlled as many as five important cement plants across both Iraq and Syria. Phosphate mines and agriculture constitute other territori- ally-based sources of revenue. 41 Unlike al-Qa’ida, ISIL does not rely on donations as a major source of revenue and so is less susceptible to traditional sanctions enforced by Treasury. The sheer volume of money initially accumulated by ISIL is more than any group in modern his- tory, which would certainly insulate its current losses (at least for a while) and allow the group to remain self-reliant and financially autonomous as it deals with ongoing austerity measures. 42
rackets and other fundraising activities that kept the group functioning. At those times, it was able to cut expenses as well. These factors leave the issue of ISIL futures uncertain as it faces greater military and financial pressure. 39
Shatz and Johnston, 2015. 40
Johnston, 2016. 41
Center for the Analysis of Terrorism, 2016, p.13. 42
Keatinge, 2014a. 35 Bibliography Abdulrahim, Raja, “In Syria’s Mangled Economy, Truckers Stitch Together Warring Regions,” Wall Street Journal, May 24, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-syrias-mangled-economy-truckers-stitch-together-warring-regions-1464106368 Adel, Loaa, “ISIS Revenues from Smuggled Oil Decline After Sharqat Liberation,” Iraqi News, September 24, 2016. As of October 22, 2016: http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/isis-revenues-from-smuggled-oil-decline-after-sharqat-liberation/ Albayrak, Ayla, and Dana Ballout, “U.S., Turkey Step Up Border Campaign Against Islamic State,” Wall Street Journal, April 26, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-turkey-step-up-border-campaign-against-islamic-state-1461684454 Ahram, Ariel, “The Dangerous Mixture of Oil and Water in Iraq,” Political Violence @ a Glance, August 18, 2014. As of December 9, 2016: https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2014/08/18/the-dangerous-mixture-of-oil-and-water-in-iraq/ Bahney, Benjamin, Howard J. Shatz, Carroll Ganier, Renny McPherson, and Barbara Sude, with Sara Beth Elson and Ghassan Schbley, An Economic Analysis of the Financial Records of al-Qa’ida in Iraq, MG-1026-OSD, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2010. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG1026.html BBC News, “Islamic State: Up to $800m of Funds ‘Destroyed by Strikes,’” April 26, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36145301 Bronstein, Scott, and Drew Griffin, “Self-Funded and Deep-Rooted: How ISIS Makes its Millions,” CNN.com, October 7, 2014. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/06/world/meast/isis-funding/ Burgess, James, “Scorched Earth Strategy? ISIS Blows Up Several Al Shaer Gas Field Installations,” Oilprice.com, May 17, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/ Scorched-Earth-Strategy-ISIS-Blows-Up-Several-Al-Shaer-Gas-Field-Installations.html Callimachi, Rukmini, and Lorenzo Tondo, “Scaling Up a Drug Trade, Straight Through ISIS Turf,”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/world/europe/italy-morocco-isis-drug-trade.html?_r=0 Center for the Analysis of Terrorism, ISIS Financing 2015, Paris, May 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://cat-int.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ISIS-Financing-2015-Report.pdf Cohen, Eliot, Conrad Crane, Jan Horvath, and John Nagl, “Principles, Imperatives, and Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency,” Military Review, March-April 2006, pp. 49–53. As of October 22, 2016: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/milreview/cohen.pdf Daraghi, Borzou, “Biggest Bank Robbery that ‘Never Happened’—$400m ISIS Heist,” Financial Times, July 17, 2014. As of November 3, 2016: https://www.ft.com/content/0378d4f4-0c28-11e4-9080-00144feabdc0 Financial Action Task Force, Financing of the Terrorist Organisation Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Paris, 2015. As of October 19, 2016: http://www.fatf-gafi.org/topics/methodsandtrends/documents/financing-of-terrorist-organisation-isil.html 36 Financial Futures of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ———, “FATF-CIFG Communique,” February 2016. As of October 19, 2016: http://www.fatf-gafi.org/publications/fatfgeneral/documents/fatf-cifg-communique-feb-2016.html Faucon, Benoit, and Margaret Coker, “The Rise and Deadly Fall of Islamic State’s Oil Tycoon,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2016. As of June 16, 2016: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rise-and-deadly-fall-of-islamic-states-oil-tycoon-1461522313 Gaffey, Conor, “Up to $800 Million of ISIS Cash Has Been Destroyed: U.S. Official,” Newsweek, April 27, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.newsweek.com/800-million-isis-cash-destroyed-us-official-452870 Glaser, Daniel L., remarks delivered at Chatham House, London, February 8, 2016a. ———, testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade and House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities, June 9, 2016b. As of June 13, 2016: https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0486.aspx Hubbard, Ben, “Offering Services, ISIS Digs in Deeper into Seized Territories,” New York Times, June 16, 2015a. As of June 14, 2016: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/17/world/middleeast/ offering-services-isis-ensconces-itself-in-seized-territories.html ———, “ISIS Promise of Statehood Falling Far Short, Ex-Residents Say,” New York Times, December 1, 2015b. As of June 14, 2016: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/middleeast/ isis-promise-of-statehood-falling-far-short-ex-residents-say.html?_r=0 Hubbard, Ben, Clifford Krauss, and Eric Schmitt, “Rebels in Syria Claim Control of Resources,” New York Times, January 28, 2014. As of December 9, 2016: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/29/world/middleeast/rebels-in-syria-claim-control-of-resources.html Hudson, John. “Top U.S. Official: Islamic State Has Lost 47 Percent of its Territory in Iraq,” Foreign Policy, June 28, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/top-u-s-official-islamic-state-has-lost-47-percent-of-its-territory-in-iraq/ IHS Inc., “Islamic State Revenue Drops to $56 Million, IHS Says,” April 18, 2016. As of November 16, 2016: http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release/aerospace-defense-security/islamic-state-monthly-revenue- drops-56-million-ihs-says “ISIS No Longer Controls Any Iraqi Oil,” Rudaw, September 27, 2016. As of October 22, 2016: http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/270920164 Johnston, Patrick B., “Islamic State’s Money Problems,” USA Today, March 4, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/03/04/ islamic-state-airstrikes-oil-prices-taxation-extortion-finances-syria-iraq-column/81207344/ Johnston, Patrick B., and Benjamin Bahney, “Hitting ISIS Where It Hurts: Disrupt ISIS’s Cash Flow in Iraq,” New York Times, August 13, 2014. As of December 9, 2016: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/14/opinion/disrupt-isiss-cash-flow-in-iraq.html Johnston, Patrick B., Jacob N. Shapiro, Howard J. Shatz, Benjamin Bahney, Danielle F. Jung, Patrick Ryan, and Jonathan Wallace, Foundations of the Islamic State: Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, 2005–2010, RR-1192-DARPA, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1192.html Jones, Sam, and Erika Solomon, “ISIS Inc.: Jihadis Fund War Machine but Squeeze ‘Citizens,’”
https://www.ft.com/content/2ef519a6-a23d-11e5-bc70-7ff6d4fd203a Jonsson, Michael, “Following the Money: Financing the Territorial Expansion of Islamist Insurgents in Syria,” Swedish Defense Research Agency, FOI Memo #4947, May 2014. Keatinge, Tom, “The Importance of Financing in Enabling and Sustaining the Conflict in Syria (and Beyond),” Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 8, No. 4, August 2014a. References 37 ———, “How the Islamic State Sustains Itself: The Importance of the War Economy in Syria and Iraq,” RUSI Analysis, August 29, 2014b. As of December 9, 2016: https://rusi.org/commentary/how-islamic-state-sustains-itself-importance-war-economy-syria-and-iraq Liepman, Andrew and Colin P. Clarke, “Demystifying the Islamic State,” U.S. News & World Report, August 23, 2016. Michaels, Jim, “Air Campaign Shifts to ISIL’s Cash and Oil,” USA Today, April 17, 2016a. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/17/air-campaign-shifts-isils-cash-and-oil/83157118/ ———, “U.S.-Led Coalition Blows Up $500 Million in Islamic State Cash,” USA Today, April 21, 2016b. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/21/ united-states-coalition-blows-up-cash-islamic-state/83346102/ Nicks, Denver, “ISIS Fighters Just Got a Huge Pay Cut,” Money, January 19, 2016. As of December 13, 2016: http://time.com/money/4185726/isis-fighters-pay-cut/ Rosenberg, Matthew, Helene Cooper, and Nicholas Kulish, “ISIS Expands Reach Despite Military and Financial Setbacks,” New York Times, April 12, 2016. As of December 9, 2016: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/world/middleeast/isis-iraq-syria.html Saad, Hwaida, and Rick Gladstone, “Syrian Insurgents Claim to Control Large Hydropower Dam,”
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ISBN-13 978-0-8330-9739-2 ISBN-10 0-8330-9739-3 51700 $17.00
In June 2016, RAND held a small workshop on Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) finances. Participants in the workshop included professionals with expertise in the Middle East, ISIL, counterterrorism, and economics. This report describes the likely evolution of ISIL finances under three specific scenarios: a continuation of the current campaign, a negotiated settlement in Syria and political accommodation in Iraq, and military victory without negotiated settlement or political accommodation. The discussion of potential consequences for ISIL across these three contrasting scenarios offered a number of implications for the counter-ISIL effort. These included taking actions to counter specific means of raising money within ISIL territory, using financial information to damage the group, degrading its ability to raise money across its territory, and ensuring that it does not shift to raising money from beyond its territory. Yüklə 342,69 Kb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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