83
THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION:
PROBLEMS AND TRENDS
THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION:
PROBLEMS AND TRENDS
7
7.1. Marriages, birth rate and
death rate
Bulgaria is one of the countries in
Central and Eastern Europe with the most
clearly noticeable demographic decline.
This trend has been long-term. But during
the past few years its negative features have
become obvious in the basic demographic
processes.
The result of this demographic devel-
opment and of the wave of emigration has
been the substantial decrease of the
countrys population. According to statis-
tics provided by the census held on De-
cember 4, 1992, it numbered 8 487 000 000,
or by 462 000 less than the population dur-
ing the 1985 census. Whereas in 1989, less
than 8000 were needed for the nation to
reach the 9th million, at the end of 1994,
the countrys population was 8 427 000 000,
or by 565 000 less than 9 million. This has
been a demographic collapse unprec-
edented in the history of the Bulgarian na-
tion. The population density has dropped
from 81 people per square kilometre in
1989 to 75.9 people in 1994.
What has been characteristic of the
1970s and 1980s was the increase of the
death rate and a drop of the birth rate. In
the late 1980s, the country was already com-
ing close to the point when the birth rate
and the death rate became almost equal.
In 1990 the death rate already exceeded
the birth rate by 4 000 people, and the coun-
try reached a state of depopulation. In 1991
that imbalance already reached 14 000
deaths more than births, which meant 1.6
per thousand, while in 1994 this indicator
was already calculated to reach 3.8 per
mille, or 32,000 people. These facts are in-
dicative of the continuous depopulation
starting from the beginning of the current
decade. At the same time a stabilization of
the biological balance has set in most West-
ern European
countries and there is even
a small increase of the natural growth rate
there. Therefore, on that indicator Bulgaria
is not in line with the trends characterizing
the developed countries of Europe.
The depopulation is higher by several
times in the villages. It started there as early
as in the mid 1970s. In 1994 it amounted
to 10.4 per thousand. In the towns and cit-
ies the depopulation became manifest in
1994 amounting to 0.7 per mille. These dif-
ferences can be explained with the pre-
dominance of aged people in the villages.
There the birth rate is lower, while the
death rate is twice as high as in the urban
centres.
In 1994 all regions of the country were
in a state of depopulation. It varied from
2.1 per mille in the region of Plovdiv to 9.0
per mille in the region of Montana. Be-
sides Montana, the regions of Lovech and
Marriage, birth and death rate per 1000
of the population (1950-1995)
The nation is
experiencing a
demographic collapse,
unknown in its history
Figure 7.1.
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT ! BULGARIA 1996
84
Sofia also have depopulation above the
average for the country.
In these critical conditions the institu-
tion of marriage has been the object of spe-
cial concern on the part of society. Accord-
ing to the Bulgarian legislation, the lowest
marriageable age is 18 years. A permit is
required for a marriage under that age.
During the past few years the share of these
marriages has been insignificant (less than
0.5 per cent). But Bulgaria is among the
European countries where early marriages
are typical. The average female age at the
first marriage is 22 years. This has been a
stable magnitude during the past two de-
cades. From among the member-countries
of the Council of Europe, only in Turkey
and in Hungary there is a lower average
age at the conclusion of the first marriage
by women. A more tangible drop in the
early marriages (up to the age of 20) has
been noticed among men, whereas among
women it has been insignificant. This has
been due to the change in the common
practice of the past for the rural men to
marry older women. This change has been
helped by the accelerated urbanization of
the country after the Second World War.
Now the main cluster of marriages of
women is in the age groups between 18 and
22 years of age, whereas among the men it
is between the ages of 20 and 26.
Up to the Second World War there
was a slightly higher number of marriages
in the villages. In 1994, the numbers of mar-
riages were already 3.4 per thousand in the
villages and 4.8 per thousand in the towns.
This difference has been the result of the
decreasing young generations in the vil-
lages. The lowest number of marriages has
been registered in the region of Montana
and the region of Lovech. In these regions
the decrease of the younger generations has
been most tangible and this has also re-
flected on the number of marriages.
Among
the women as well as among
the men, most of the marriages are con-
cluded by those contracting a first marriage.
In 1994, they accounted for 89.6
per cent
of the women and 88.2 per cent of the men.
When compared with 1960, these values
have increased insignificantly, and in com-
parison with 1991 they are almost un-
changed.
During the past two decades, there has
been a stable and relatively low rate of di-
vorces in Bulgaria, namely less than 2 per
thousand. With this rate of divorce, the
country is close to most of the countries of
South Europe, where the family institution
has been relatively stable. The main accu-
mulations of divorces are at the beginning
of married life up to the age of 30 or in the
interval between 45 and 49 years of age.
Table 7.1.
Absolute and relative decrease of marriages
years, Bulgaria has had a stable
number of marriages of between
8 and 10 per thousand of the
population. In the 1980s, it be-
gan to decrease, reaching 7.0
per thousand in 1989, whereas
during the past few years it has
sharply decreased reaching 4.4
per thousand in 1995.
Box 7.1.
Both the absolute and the rela-
tive drop of marriages began in
the late 1970s. Whereas in the
1970s there were 70 000 mar-
riages a year, in 1991 their num-
ber dropped to 49 000, and in
1994 to 38,000. Excluding the
war periods and the demo-
graphic redress of the post-war
Marriages, birth rate, death rate and natural growth per 1000
of the population in 1994 by regions (in %)
Marriage
Birth rate Death rate Natural growth
Total for the country
4.5
9.4
13.2
-3.8
City of Sofia
5.2
8.6
11.5
-2.9
Bourgas region
4.5
10.4
12.7
-2.3
Varna region
4.7
10.1
12.6
-2.5
Lovech region
4.0
8.7
15.9
-7.2
Montana region
3.8
8.9
17.9
-9.0
Plovdiv region
4.5
9.6
11.7
-2.1
Rousse region
4.4
10.0
13.8
-3.8
Sofia region
4.4
9.2
13.2
-4.0
Haskovo region
4.4
9.6
12.2
-2.6