85
THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION:
PROBLEMS AND TRENDS
Featuring in the first group are the marital
relations that had not been well considered
in advance and are dissolved. In the sec-
ond group are families whose children have
already grown up. This makes possible the
dissolution of unstable marriages.
From among the reasons cited for the
dissolution of marriages in 1994, most im-
portant has been the incompatibility of
characters (32.7 per cent) and unfaithful-
ness (11.5 per cent). The share of dissolved
marriages by mutual consent has been
steadily growing and reaching 23.7 per cent.
Up to the mid-1960s, the birth rate was
higher in the villages than in the towns.
Then a decline of the birth rate in the vil-
lages began reaching 8.8 per thousand in
1994 as against 9.7 per thousand in the
towns. This has been due to the acceler-
ated aging of the rural population result-
ing from migration. The fertility of the
population, measured by the total coeffi-
cient of fertility, is higher in the villages
(1.67) than in the towns (1.27). The lowest
birth rate for 1994 was registered for the
city of Sofia - 8.6 per thousand, followed
by the region of Lovech - 8.7 per thousand
and the region of Montana - 8.9 per thou-
sand.
Research of the reproductive beha-
viour does not lead to any optimistic con-
clusions. The two-children model, charac-
teristic of the country in the 1970s and the
first half of the 1980s (2.08 desired chil-
dren in 1985) was rapidly eroded. The chil-
dren desired by one woman in 1991 were
1.8. In reality, the figure reached 1.37 chil-
dren per woman in 1994.
Demographic, socio-economic, socio-
psychological and other factors influence
the formation of the reproductive beha-
viour. The fundamental demographic fac-
tors have already a negative effect on the
birth rate. The number of marriages is
steadily
decreasing, adversely influencing
the birth rate. The contingent of women in
fertile age was expected to increase, be-
cause after the middle of the 1980s it was
joined by the generations born in the 1968-
1975 period, where there was a relatively
high birth rate - 16-17 per thousand. The
rate of that contingent in 1994 was 47.9
per thousand or by 1.5 points higher than
that in 1986,
although it had been largely
swept by emigration. That increase, how-
ever, did not bring about a higher birth rate.
The curtailing of the active fertility
period has been characteristic. At the be-
ginning of the century, a considerable pro-
portion of the women bore children
throughout their period of fertility. Now
most of the births accumulate in the age
groups from 15 to 24 years of age. In 1994
the births of this age group of mothers ac-
counted for 65.0 per cent of all live births,
whereas in 1901-1905 that percentage was
34.6.
Fertility also depends on the number
of children born. Statistics point to a con-
tinuous increase of the births of a first child.
The leap has
been particularly big during
the past three decades, when from 40.8 per
cent in 1960-1962, the percentage of these
births reached 54.1 in 1994. The births of
a second child dropped from 38.6 of the
total number of child births in wedlock in
The low birth rate has
been due to a set of
demographic, economic
and cultural factors
During the past decade the birth
rate has been continuously de-
creasing. Since 1990 it has not
been capable of securing a posi-
tive natural growth. In 1995 the
birth rate reached the point of
8.6 per thousand. Only a few
countries of Southern Europe
like Italy, Greece and Spain, as
well as countries in transition
like Lithuania and Estonia have
had such a low birth rate among
the member-countries of the
Council of Europe. In most of
the advanced countries an in-
crease or stabillization of the
The birth rate has been decreasing
rapidly and significantly
birth rate was noted in the
1980s. Against this background,
the low birth rate in Bulgaria
cannot be explained or excused
by the world trends. Indicators
as the total coefficient of fertil-
ity (average number of children
born by one woman during her
period of fertility), which in
1994 was 1.37, as well as the net
coefficient of reproduction (the
possibility of the girls born to
live to reach the age of their
mothers) amounting to 0.68
show divergence from the pre-
dominant trend in Europe.
Box 7.2.
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT ! BULGARIA 1996
86
1963 to 33.5 per cent in 1994. The birth of
a third child was stable within the range of
16-17 per cent up to the early 1940s, when
that percentage began to decrease to reach
7.1 in 1994. The relative share of births of
a fourth, and especially of a fifth and sixth
child has tended to be continuously de-
creasing, which has been particularly clear
during the past three decades.
The major socio-economic factors, de-
termining the decrease of the birth rate
in the conditions of transition, boil down
to the following:
- Drop in the real incomes of most of
the young families, a change in the struc-
ture of consumption, mostly directed to the
support of the family, and the rising costs
of bringing up children;
- High rate of unemployment and
vague prospects
for the professional real-
ization of a great number of young people;
- Delay in the tackling of the living
and social problems concerning young
families, like the provision of housing, and
the services provided to the families;
- Ambiguity in the system of assistance
to the families in the support, upbringing
and education of the children.
Socio-psychological factors have also
had quite a negative impact on the birth
rate under the conditions of transition. The
hardships in the satisfaction of basic needs
relegate to the background the needs of
having children and result in putting off,
and to giving up the birth of the next child.
The erosion of the multiple children, and
of the two children model, intensifies. The
contraction of marriage and the birth of
the first child are often delayed too long.
The aims of the parents are mostly directed
to the search for ways for their own better
self-realization and the provision of the
conditions for their childrens better future,
which limits their number in the families.
The family business which could lead
to a reproduction of the manpower needed
by the family, instead of hiring it on the
labour market, has not begun to operate
yet. The interest in increasing the family is
expected to stabilize with the development
of private farming and private business. It
should not be forgotten, however, that simi-
lar expectations failed to materialize in
Hungary and in some countries of South-
ern Europe.
The rise of the death rate has reflected
unfavourably on the biological balance of
the country. With certain vacillations, this
trend has continued throughout the period
of the mid-1960s to date. The lowest death
rate was registered in 1961 and 1964 - 7.9
per thousand. In 1995 the death rate
reached 13.6 per thousand. A share of this
increase has been due to the aging of the
population. But this cannot give a full ex-
planation to the considerable rise of the
death rate. This has also been borne out
by the standardized coefficients of death.
Among the member-countries of the Coun-
cil of Europe, the death rate in Bulgaria is
exceeded only
by the death rates in Hun-
gary, Lithuania and Estonia.
After the Second World War, the main
causes of death have changed, too. In the
past, the main causes of death were pneu-
monia and tuberculosis, which ranked sec-
ond and third as causes of death in the
1939-1949 period after the diseases of the
blood circulation organs. At that time, quite
significant were also the deaths caused by
acute infectious diseases, typhoid fever and
paratyphus, scarlet fever, malaria and epi-
Infant mortality is rising
Estonia and Lithuania among
the member-countries of the
Council of Europe. Only Tur-
key and Romania have consid-
erably less favourable indices.
The most advanced countries
like Sweden, Switzerland, Den-
mark, Norway and the Nether-
lands have about three times
lower infant mortality.
Box 7.3.
Registering a considerable de-
crease from 138.9 per thousand
live births in 1939 to 13.6 per
thousand in 1988, infant
mortanlity has tended to rise
during the past few years. In
1990 it was 14.8 per thousand,
while in 1994 it was 16.3 per
thousand. In this indicator Bul-
garia is almost on a par with